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If it was for revealing the secrets of f35 to the russians, why didn't turkey just wait to order s400 until it already had a sizable operational fleet of f35?
Considering the heavy repercussions its going to face now, what more could have happened? Surely, US couldn't have lifted those f35 off turkey or declare war for such an issue?
LOL that's a funny post, the Pentagon struggles to operate so called fleet of F-35s due to incredible consumption of spares Aug 24, 2019 (plus dysfunctional ALIS)
almost two and a half billion for "initial spares" for game-changers
Contracts For Aug. 23, 2019
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NAVY
Lockheed Martin Corp., Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Co., Fort Worth, Texas, is awarded $2,426,326,544 for modification P00002 to previously awarded firm-fixed-price, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract N00019-19-D-0015 F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter initial spares for the Marine Corps, Navy, Air Force, non-U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) participants, and Foreign Military Sales (FMS) customers. Spares to be procured include global spares packages, base spares packages, deployment spares packages, afloat spares packages and associated consumables. Work will be performed in Fort Worth, Texas (24.4%); El Segundo, California (9.1%); Owego, New York (8.6%); Samlesbury, United Kingdom (7.2%); Cheltenham, United Kingdom (6.2%); Nashua, New Hampshire (5.8%); Torrance, California (5.5%); Orlando, Florida (4.9%); Cedar Rapids, Iowa (3.7%); San Diego, California (3.6%); Phoenix, Arizona (3.1%); Melbourne, Florida (3.1%); Irvine, California (2.5%); North Amityville, New York (2.4%); Windsor Locks, Connecticut (2.2%); Baltimore, Maryland (2.2%); Papendrect, The Netherlands (1.9%); Rolling Meadows, Illinois (1.8%); and Alpharetta, Georgia (1.8%). All orders are expected to be placed no later than December 2020. No funds will be obligated at time of award, funds will be obligated on individual delivery orders as they are issued. The Naval Air Systems Command, Patuxent River, Maryland, is the contracting activity.
; reportedly this is for testing (presumably important) aircraft (Aug 9, 2019):



so the Pentagon simply wouldn't send spares and hypothetical Turkish F-35s would have like one last sortie to fly at most
 

Brumby

Major
If it was for revealing the secrets of f35 to the russians, why didn't turkey just wait to order s400 until it already had a sizable operational fleet of f35?
Considering the heavy repercussions its going to face now, what more could have happened? Surely, US couldn't have lifted those f35 off turkey or declare war for such an issue?
That is a counter factual question that only God can answer under the all possible world hypothesis. .
 
a bonus link LOL for those who'd say I was exaggerating above about the F-35 scheme

Mar 1, 2019
quote of the day comes from the acting Air Force Secretary inside
How the US Air Force’s Kessel Run team plans to solve one of the F-35 program’s biggest headaches
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:

“There is a logistics system that supports the F-35 called ALIS. It cannot scale. It has got huge problems. It drives the maintainers nuts. And so we put together a team of Lockheed Martin, Air Force programmers and maintainers on the flight line,” she said.
plus personally I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere hidden inside were a plug to possibly receive 'Stand Down' signal from the Pentagon -- now this is my conjecture
 

Bhurki

Junior Member
Registered Member
That is a counter factual question that only God can answer under the all possible world hypothesis. .
Turkey was a level 3 f35 partner since long.
They also knew s400 was squarely designed to be effective against LO targets. Also, even before any s400 deal, US without specific direction indicated that any partner that buys s400 would be excluded from f35 program.
Yet turkey decided to buy a couple regiments anyways. I was just curious, if they knew they were going to be excluded from the program over s400 and were in bed with russians to reveal some tech regarding f35, they could've just waited 24 months to order s400. Its not like the russians wouldn't want to supply them the system just because they had f35 operational.
Anyways, i'm not going to push this any further because i don't know where i went counter factual.
 

Bhurki

Junior Member
Registered Member
so the Pentagon simply wouldn't send spares and hypothetical Turkish F-35s would have like one last sortie to fly at most
I lot of things can be found out without it ever flying. Really looking at it through a potential reverse engineering point of view. It would've been like a cold war defection of mig 25 by belenko
 

Gloire_bb

Junior Member
Registered Member
If it was for revealing the secrets of f35 to the russians, why didn't turkey just wait to order s400 until it already had a sizable operational fleet of f35?
Considering the heavy repercussions its going to face now, what more could have happened? Surely, US couldn't have lifted those f35 off turkey or declare war for such an issue?
Because it would have killed the political point. Idea was to let US choose Tech vs image of Delian league(obvious and predictable political result, US consistently chooses Tech unless really hard pressed), not to get reputation of trickster just for several planes. Especially since, at odds or not, Turkey is a NATO member, I very much doubt they ever seriously considered leaking.

All in all, Integral military potential just wasn't the main focus of this play. Turkey isn't gathering forces for imminent war. S-400, on the other hand, is crucial not just as bargain tool, but as military and internal asset just as well.
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
Turkey was a level 3 f35 partner since long.
They also knew s400 was squarely designed to be effective against LO targets. Also, even before any s400 deal, US without specific direction indicated that any partner that buys s400 would be excluded from f35 program.
Yet turkey decided to buy a couple regiments anyways. I was just curious, if they knew they were going to be excluded from the program over s400...
<I cut this to right here>
I disagree with @Brumby a bit here it’s not entirely counter factual. It could very well have played the way Ankara wanted.

All evidence seems that they tried to have there cake and eat it to.
Quote from a member of the Turkish foreign ministry.
"From the beginning, when we entered this programme, we have fulfilled our commitments,"
"We are not a customer of the F-35 programme, we are its owners. While there's no apparent justified reason or legal grounds, we are trying to be pushed out. This is not an acceptable situation. If we are pushed out of this process, we will have to try other ways."

These are excerpts from
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I emphasize the Line “We are its owners”
Ankara believes that by being a level three partner they were not simply buying F35s they were developers have a absolute right to do as they please. Including buying F35 and S400 at the same time.
The US told them in no uncertain terms to make a choice F35 or S400.

The Russians were happy to sell S400. They didn’t seem to be scheming with the Turkish Government for F35 secrets. They may have hoped to get a peak under the hood so to speak but likely not through Ankara’s officialdom. President Erdogan believed that the US was bluffing.
The Turkish Government tried to delay making the choice on the face of it. Likely hoping that the administration and Congress would back down. Perhaps schemings they would get F35 deliveries in country and then S400 in country at the same time. Then turn around and say
“Opps we got both?! What do you do now Washington? LoLz”
Hoping that DC would be served a healthy heaping portion of Turkish Crow as he got the best of both sides.
Basically setting the situation on the ground, force the US to play by Ankara’s rules.
His bet was based on The Turkish Air Force being the 4th top buy and a major industry partner would weaken the political will of the United States of American to enforce its S400 Red line And watch the US give.
However when Ankara, He, Erdogan tried to call US’s bluff in hopes of the weak hand only to discover, The US was not playing.
The Jets were pulled. The training pilots sent home The two “Delivered” F35 are still in the US under US control with no more coming and none under Turkish control. Turkey seemed to still have/Had hopes of getting them at least in early August.
However more recently they seem to be more playing to Russia for Su57E.

plus personally I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere hidden inside were a plug to possibly receive 'Stand Down' signal from the Pentagon -- now this is my conjecture
This has been claimed before from as far back as the 79 Iranian F14A after the revolution. When F14s of Iran suffered systems failures.
I find it highly entertaining particularly your spin, but unlikely. Especially given the amount of concern that nations have with the ALIS system for just that reason.
The F35 is an emerging fighter type that limits available spare parts as a rule but as time progresses more parts become available by operating the same lines building the fighters. It’s not clear cut or easy and it’s often a case of trying to stretch the parts on hand and get new ones as you can. But for F35 that supply will increase. As the production line keeps running.
Every flight hour of F35 demands inspection and repair like all fighters.
If the spare parts stop coming the fighters start suffering failures which is exactly what happened to the 79 F14s the Iranians had.
The best “Kill switch” any nation exporting heavy weapons systems has to prevent unauthorized use is to stop supplying spare parts. Especially when you have a system as complex as a Fifth gen Fighter.
To keep fighting in the Iran Iraq war Tehran had to cannibalize more and more F14 taking parts From less and less damaged birds to keep fewer and fewer F14s operational. that creates a situation where the number of operational fighters and systems can only decrease until an alternative supply if found. That took the Iranians years to reverse engineer enough parts to establish a equilibrium of parts to Fighters. And it meant that 79 F14 in 1979 is as low as a dozen to two dozen today.
@Jura you do have a point but wrong place as the spare parts issue has little actual baring here. Because only 2 F35 turned over to Turkey and they never actually left the US.

I lot of things can be found out without it ever flying. Really looking at it through a potential reverse engineering point of view. It would've been like a cold war defection of mig 25 by belenko
In that situation what happened is not reverse engineering so much as realistic appraisal. The West was convinced Mig25 was a super fighter. Able to hunt down and kill anyone or anything that went near the USSR. What really set the record straight wasn’t so much the fighter but Belenko.
He brought a sample in the form of the Foxhound but also a flight manual and his own training. These changed the view of the machine.

Could Turkey have given the Russians a look at F35? Sure but it wouldn’t have been in their interest because it would still have been Turkish Fighters.
Turkey’s President Erdogan is a Neo-Ottomanist. He wants Turkey to dominate the Eurasian area.
To do this he wants a strong military and to be the Arms dealer to the region. This shows in the programs he has launched. LHA, Attack choppers, Main battle tanks and more. Not just for his army but for export.
To take a bite of the European, Asian and American makers by offering weapons and gear made in the region for the region and by the region.
He wants S400 to keep the other fifth gen flyer in the region at bay, Israel who already have F35A and are unique in getting to develop their own package the F35I down the line.
He also wanted the White House and Kremlin to play by his rules to achieve his aims.
Erdogan wanted F35 to form the first of his fifth gen fleet assembled in Turkey that was to include a Turkish Fifth gen air superiority fighter TF-X.
That he could sell to friends and threaten against enemies. He might have given a scrap or two to the Russians in tech yet this ambitions wouldn’t have allowed him to give the whole steak. Now we see the fall back plan the SU57E is being imagined with Turkish weapons and the factory in Turkey making composite parts for it.
 
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Dizasta1

Senior Member
Turkey did indeed take delivery of two F-35's, and Turkish Pilots and Maintainers have been in training to fly their F-35s, those F-35's remained in the US as part of the partner's training protocol, and had Turkey not bought the S-400, they would soon have been taking delivery of more F-35's. Turkey not only violated Russian sanctions by purchasing the S-400, but had every intention of basing the F-35 next to the S-400's which would allow the Turks and their Russian trainers to "Game the F-35", and probe its secrets, potentially compromising the survivability of the F-35 and its aircrew...

That is non-negotiable, and Turkey has now lost their F-35 partnership and production of F-35 aircraft systems and parts, that hurts and Turkey is having a tantrum over that sad state of affairs. They had ample warning, in fact people begging them to buy the Patriot, in order to remain in the F-35 enterprise, and they would have eventually made a "hell of a lot of money" as well as bringing Turkish defense contractors into the 5th gen business, potentially allowing them to build their own 5th Generation aircraft.

But no, there are full range of consequences for those who violate sanctions and capitalize and aggressive Russian resurgence, so No again, its NOT one size fits all, but a "tailored response", depending on the seriousness of the breach, and why people violated sanctions? was it to maintain a previously purchased Russian system and keep it functioning? or in the case of Turkey, was it a "slap in the face", and act you have characterized as "belligerent".

So Russia will offer Turkey the Su-35 and hope they are happy, with a promise to be "eligible" to buy the Su-57 in the future?
Seems to be that way, well at least the visit of Turkish President Erogan to MAKS '2019 looked as such. But if sanctions have come into effect on Turkey (vis-a-vis caatsa), then all that money that Turkey poured into the Joint Strike Fighter program is lost? If that is the case, then it means Turkey must be fuming about this. That would push Turkey away from the Western Block, possibly even have second thoughts on NATO? Surely loss of an ally in such a volatile region would not bode well for NATO.

On the flip side, if caatsa is "tailored" to each ally and the situation surrounding that ally. It would enrage some allies furthermore, if say India or the Saudi regime is treated with kid-gloves. That would be a double negative for the whole basis of caatsa being formulated in the first place. Banking on Turkey's overwhelmingly western military hardware, would prevent the country going the other way, is a gamble that might just backfire on america.

But I get the feeling, all is not what it seems and Turkey is in fact a playing dangerous game with Russia. While everyone is focusing on F-35s gamed by S400s. No one has thought to toss it around on the other side. Where a predominantly american military hardware'd Turkey Military, would use say it's E-7 AEWCs in DACT and share S-400 combat capabilities, heck even the frequency bands of the ADS.

If that is the case, then Turkey would find itself in a world of hurt, as the Russians have showed a considerable amount of restraint and maturity when comes to Turkey. It is touch and go for Turkey, because if it does do what I was think it's game is, then that would be a serious loss of credibility on the world stage. No one really want to do business with them, at all!!!
 
I lot of things can be found out without it ever flying. Really looking at it through a potential reverse engineering point of view. It would've been like a cold war defection of mig 25 by belenko
LOL a nasty, but very good point I overlooked while commenting earlier today

for example cutting off an F-35 coating and calling Moscow and/or Beijing well had it happened, it would've been a total misuse of the gear and treacherous behavior, I guess the StateDept and White House would've handled it first: full trade-embargo, breaking diplomatic relations, leaving Incirlik ASAP
 
what is this:
@Jura you do have a point but wrong place as the spare parts issue has little actual baring here. Because only 2 F35 turned over to Turkey and they never actually left the US.
B. had asked a question (actually three questions) which I answered by pointing out the F-35s would be useless without spares, using these words:
"so the Pentagon simply wouldn't send spares and hypothetical Turkish F-35s would have like one last sortie to fly at most"

can't you see I talked "hypothetical Turkish F-35s" in reference to what if question asked by B., and I didn't talk about "2 F35 turned over to Turkey" (why on Earth would I)
??

thought it was obvious I talked about many future F-35s in a hypothetical scenario in which they would've been delivered
 

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