Russia Vs Georgia..a widening crisis!


lcortez

New Member
Have to say I disagree with the comments that Iran is Europes only option re oil & gas.Recently there have been a number of finds in the north sea and the lower Artic circle,(all yet to be developed,admittadly),which leave Norway in position to supply the EU to the same level as Russia:)
With regard to Europes weak hand re Russia,the US hasnt exactly been robust,waiting for a French brokered ceasefire before sending in aid,avoiding Russian troops in the port of Poti through fear of confrontation,also the EU will be sending monitors to ensure the ceasefire is being adhered to.
The ceasfire may not be perfect,but at least it stopped lives being lost:)
Its easy to talk tough on internet forums,about how the US or EU has been stronger,but the fact is,both nations have been made to look stupid by an aggressive bully who took the first chance it could to annex territory from a weaker neighbour:)
 

flyzies

Junior Member
Energy resources in Arctic Circle wont get developed at all until the who-owns-what-and-where dispute gets settled. Russia made a huge territorial claim there not long ago. There's going to be massive squabbles over in polar bear land in next decade or two...no doubts about that.
Plus, Iranian oil and gas would be much easier and cheaper to develop and transport...not to mention work could be started in matter of months if Europe decided to send their oil companies in.
 

lcortez

New Member
Have just been looking over Russias new foreign policy doctrine on the BBC website,reading between the lines it looks like Russias main "problem" is with the US over its aggresive exspansion around Russias border (NATO is really the the US inmo),so I dont think the taps will be turned off any time soon to Europe:)
Just a question re the oil thing,couldnt the EU get oil from Sub-Saharan Africa?How important is the oil supply from that region?Would it not be a "good thing" to get oil from Africa as it would meet our needs and supply much needed work and development in that world area?:)
INMO,the EU needs a more stable supplier than a Russia that has demonstrated its willingness to use oil as a weapon:)

PS;just another re oil;what about Brazilian oil?Or oil in the South Atlantic?Are these finds substantial?could they meet our needs?
Sorry to ask so many questions,but would like to get a handle on just ow important Russian oil really is!:)
 

Husar

New Member
I don't think Russia is a threat to the EU.

What seems to have changed is that they will be a lot more forceful in asserting their interests. Georgia and Ukraine in Nato is something they won't take lying down and it's up to the EU whether it wants to join the US in pushing the envelope.

There have been rumours going around for the past few months, that Yulia Tymoshenko (one of the leaders of the Orange revolution in Ukraine) has switched sides.....the latest news is that the Ukranian government coalition has broken up with the president Yushenko calling her a "traitor"......so this is potentially a pretty important development considering the future of Ukraine

Ukraine's presidential party quits ruling coalition
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A couple of other important economic news

The US is trying to re-establish itself in Uzbekistan so Putin has made an urgent visit to Uzbekistan and the pipeline news was announced...

Russia, Uzbekistan Agreed to Construct Gas Pipeline
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and looks like Gazprom is spreading into Nigeria.....which up to now has been exclusively the domain of western oil companies

Gazprom, Nigeria plan joint venture
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flyzies

Junior Member
Have just been looking over Russias new foreign policy doctrine on the BBC website,reading between the lines it looks like Russias main "problem" is with the US over its aggresive exspansion around Russias border (NATO is really the the US inmo),so I dont think the taps will be turned off any time soon to Europe:)
Just a question re the oil thing,couldnt the EU get oil from Sub-Saharan Africa?How important is the oil supply from that region?Would it not be a "good thing" to get oil from Africa as it would meet our needs and supply much needed work and development in that world area?:)
INMO,the EU needs a more stable supplier than a Russia that has demonstrated its willingness to use oil as a weapon:)

PS;just another re oil;what about Brazilian oil?Or oil in the South Atlantic?Are these finds substantial?could they meet our needs?
Sorry to ask so many questions,but would like to get a handle on just ow important Russian oil really is!:)
The thing you have to know about oil is that most of the tapped reserves are already secured by certain nations and their oil companies, plus some of the world's biggest oil producers have already reached "peak oil"...meaning theyre pumping as much as they can and there's not much to spare (if any at all) for anyone else.
Sub-Sahara Africa you mean like Sudan and Nigeria? Most of Nigerian oil is going to US and Europe doesnt invest in Sudan due to Darfur...a gap which China seems more than happy to fill.

How important Russian oil is to Europe really? Watch this from Aljazeera:
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flyzies

Junior Member
There have been rumours going around for the past few months, that Yulia Tymoshenko (one of the leaders of the Orange revolution in Ukraine) has switched sides.....the latest news is that the Ukranian government coalition has broken up with the president Yushenko calling her a "traitor"......so this is potentially a pretty important development considering the future of Ukraine
There are conflicting reports on who actually quit the ruling coalition; Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party or the the Tymoshenko Bloc. But one thing is for sure, there is no way the Ukrainian govt as it is would survive...another victory for Russia?

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Husar

New Member
...another victory for Russia?
Too early to say.

Apparently they've been backing her faction (on the quiet), because they weren't too happy with Yanukovich (Party of Regions). The population is pretty much split 50 - 50 and the country has been constantly in turmoil.....so the only way to have a stable government is to have a Tymoshenko - Yanukovich alliance.
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
Have to say I disagree with the comments that Iran is Europes only option re oil & gas.Recently there have been a number of finds in the north sea and the lower Artic circle,(all yet to be developed,admittadly),which leave Norway in position to supply the EU to the same level as Russia:)
I kind of seriously doubt that. North Atlantic oil reserves and finds have hit the peak oil phenomenon since the turn of the decade. Its also a phrase that whatever you find isn't enough compared to projected demand, and whatever you find maybe too costly to extract even at current oil prices. There is still plenty of oil in the world, but many of them won't be economical to extract or refine until it reaches 200 dollars a barrel, and many more until 300 dollars a barrel.

And yes, there are many other oil reserves around the world, but US, China, India, Japan and the rest of the world will also be competing for them as well. The fact that the EU likes to take the "moral high road" is a major dis competitive situation for them, because these oil reserves are also in the hands of third world dictators. The situation in Darfur and Venezuela are examples.

The EU should reread the book actually written by a famous European---Machiavelli.
 

Husar

New Member
Turkey is hardly a friend of Georgia. The Southern Port of Bathumi has only recently been returned to Georgian hands at it was the Capital of the other little breakaway Turkic speaking region on Turkeys border. Georgia wandered in recently and occupied it (never made the press over here of course).
Something related to Adjaria (the region mentioned in Sampans post)

Russia exchanges 12 Georgian POWs for Adjaran general
[ 28 Aug 2008 17:49 ]


Tbilisi – APA. Russia handed over 12 Georgian POWs captured in Poti port. APA reports quoting Interfax that in exchange for this Georgia handed over General Roman Dumbadze, who was arrested for giving strong support to president of Adjara Aslan Abashidze in 2004. MP from opposition Giya Tortladze told journalists that the general had been handed over.

Major-general Roman Dumbadze was the commander of the 25th military unit of Georgia in Batumi. In 2004 when the relations between Aslan Abashidze and the authorities became tense, Dumbadze defended Adjaran leader and said he would not obey Mikhail Saakashvili. The general was arrested after the government change in Adjara and sentenced to 17 years in jail under charges of high treason.

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In today’s Tbilisi, they apprehend that Moscow is orchestrating a new plan for Georgia, eyeing annexation of Adzharia in addition to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The key figures will be General Dumbadze and Aslan Abashidze, who currently lives in Moscow.

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Scratch

Captain
Oil and gas in the north sea is by no means a mid-long term solution, reserves are running thin. The artic circle reserves need to be developed and it'll take many years untill a reasonable amount comes from there.
Oil and gas from sub saharan Africa? Would have to be shiped in wich I guess isn't exactly cheaper then a pipeline. And those regions aren't exactly stable and reliable either.
Greater amounts from Iran? That would make the whole sanction and political pressure thing a farce, and it wouldn't solve the problem of being reliant on someone you don't want to rely on.
The mid east, it can't just substitue the huge amount of russian oil / gas all of a sudden, those countries are nearly at max production rate anyway.
Brazil, again we need to ship in in from across an ocean and it won't do it alone, too.
Additional pipelines from the caspian sea through Azerbaijan to circumvent Russia might be a solution, but that also takes time.

There definitely is a reliance, and with high energy prices that already aggravate people and effect the economy, there's little desire to risk a confrontation over that issue.

Somehow, some here think such an mutula reliance is a good thing because it improves stability. Oh well ...

Renewables are on the rise, but far too slow. Plus, here in good ol' Germany some think the demon of nuclear energy must be dispelled, wichs phasing out will absorb all the new green improvements. But hey, we can built new cole and gas powerplant to make up for that.
(sometimes I miss an emoticon banging it's had against a wall :) )

Putting money into technical inovation for energy indepandance instead of building up a foreign military is, however, something hardly anyone has thought about yet it seems.
 

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