Russia sells S-400 SAM to China

SinoSoldier said:

The PLA is developing the HQ-19, HQ-26, HQ-29, and HQ-8, and two of them are due to be in service by the end of 2015.

The S-400 would be extremely redundant and even if such a deal were true it would take far longer for them to be delivered than would the delivery of the HQ-series.

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Let's not get carried away there, we know the PLA have next gen SAMs under development but I don't think we should have the confidence to suggest a service date.

As for the usefulness of S-400 – the Russians make good SAMs. Even if new gen PLA SAMs are as good or better than S-400, i wouldn't pass up a chance to see what the Russians have under their hood if the price is right.
It is a similar argument for why the PLA may be interested in getting a few Su-35s. Basically my train of thought is never say never.

If this offer is real, I think the PLA will enter into negotiations with the Russians, both out of politeness (don't want to leave Putin hanging after he made such a gesture), and out of interest.

China will take a long hard look at the S400, evaluate all the technical data the Russians make available, maybe even arrange for some live tests, ideally in China where the PLA can set the scenarios and supply the target drones and jammers to get a like-for-like comparison with how the best Chinese SAMs stack up against the S400.

If the S400 is significantly better than what China can make, it would be foolish to turn down the offer provided the terms are reasonable.

If its on par with what China already has, it makes little partical sense to buy it, and I don't think China would feel a great deal of pressure to buy the systems since it looks like the Russians are making this offer because they feel isolated with the Ukraine situation, and the terms for the S400 deal may well not be just financial.

If that is indeed the case, whether this deal goes through will depend on more than the technical merits of the systems, and to be honest, if China was to decide to take the diplomatic hit of siding with the Russians over Ukraine, they should bargain for something much more significant and useful than S400s. If I was in charge of negotiations for China, I would set the price of Chinese hypocrisy at the Yasen class. China can order up to half a dozen to make it worthwhile for the Russians provided they allow local production. Otherwise the S400 deal will be purely financial and China will maintain its current stance over the Ukraine.

plawolf said:

If I was in charge of negotiations for China, I would set the price of Chinese hypocrisy at the Yasen class. China can order up to half a dozen to make it worthwhile for the Russians provided they allow local production.

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russia will never export yasen submarines to china. They are considered strategic equipment.

Bltizo said:

Let's not get carried away there, we know the PLA have next gen SAMs under development but I don't think we should have the confidence to suggest a service date.

As for the usefulness of S-400 – the Russians make good SAMs. Even if new gen PLA SAMs are as good or better than S-400, i wouldn't pass up a chance to see what the Russians have under their hood if the price is right.
It is a similar argument for why the PLA may be interested in getting a few Su-35s. Basically my train of thought is never say never.

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Those dates were not made up; they were mentioned in the papers detailing the SAMs/ABMs. The exact phrasing was "end of the twelfth five year plan".

kroko said:

Russia will never export yasen submarines to china. They are considered strategic equipment.

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Not yet anyway give them thirty years though. No nation Save for Russia Has ever Exported a SSN or SSBN. And in that situation It was the INS Chakra under lease to India. By the time the Akula 2 Sub was Delivered it was a 25 year old design. infact the Ship in Question was already 16 years old . out side of that. Every other "Export" Consisted of Assistance of development of Indigenous systems.
The Best Wolf would or could ever get would be Developmental assistance in there Type 95, Type 97(Eventual) SSN and improvements in Type 96, Type 98 ( eventual) SSBN programs.
As is though that is neither here nor there.
the track record for this source is not good.
but the fact is the story may have something to it, And for China if Putin is willing to give S400 then perhaps he is willing to let them in on the ground floor of the Coming S500 which is said to be a full ABM system. or given the want of Russian Joint programs in other areas perhaps work it as a joint.

Most, if not all of the P5 helped other countries with their nuclear weapons programmes, and you can't get any more strategic than that.

If the Russians are pragmatic long term thinkers, it would pay for them to establish good working relationships and precedents with the Chinese when it comes to ToT and/or joint ventures because the days of China wanting to buy Russian made hardware is fast ending, if it hasn't ended already.

The fact that I had to go to SSNs to think of something the Russians have that would truely interest China speaks volumes about how far China has come, and China still has a very long way to go yet.

Sooner or later, the day will come when it is the Russians who want to buy military hardware from the Chinese, and I would say that 'sooner' is the safer bet.

Hell, it it wasn't for Russian pride, there is much that China is producing already that would benefit the Russians greatly to have. The longer we look into the future, the longer the list of Chinese gear they Russians could do with, and the shorter the list of stuff the Russians have that might interest the Chinese.

The Problem with your proposal for a negotiated deal is Wolf, that Yasen is pure Russian. If the PLAN got there hands on it its weapons and systems would tie its operations to Russia. The Chinese have been moving away from Russian or depending on anyone, the PLA as I see it has a deep seeded projectionist impulse. If they can get it at home then they will, if they can't then they will get the resources to. If it takes a long time then they will use a interim import until they can get it in the PRC from PRC owned or closely related maker. Yasen being a Russia sub uses Russian type torpedoes, not the Chinese spec and the Russian torpedo specs are also different now, she loads Russian Cruise missiles, not the types used by the PLAN. She would basically drag China back to Russia. What the PLAN would really want from Yasen is her silence. Her Pump Jet, her reactors, her mountings and sound dampening insulation, parts of her sonar and maybe her Hull metallurgy. They want her technology's not her hull. Her hull would be a drag. Her technology would allow the PLAN to make there own Yasen. Without the Russians.
as to the Deal or no deal China is catching up, and its needs are expanding. The S400 is a fair option, and Putin is making this offer to try and get China back interested in Russian industry with the Hopes that he can get some more Chinese investment. Look at the other pushes we have heard of from Russia to China, Russia trying to get deals in civilian aviation by offering to joint for a regional jet program, the Russian offer of Su35 which yes was never taken but there must have been a offer. These are sweeteners for the PRC a way for Moscow to say "Hay Beijing, listen we know you love our Oil but how about taking a look at our other fine products..." Russia is getting a little bit jealous, they see RMB flowing into emerging Africa and are not seeing the same for them. Though India is buying there recent buys have included American and now French Hardware. Venezuela has bought alot but its just not anyway enough to keep the Rubbles greasing the Russian economic machine especially when Venezuelan dollar is getting less and less worth. The Saudis just paid for boat loads of toys as gifts for Egypt but Putin knows that that was a move by them to get the US's attentions'. The War in Syria is making a buck but the Russians know Assad is more and more a puppet for Iran and more and more importantly bankrupted as the war keeps going all the weapons Putin sends south is more and more a IOU. Europe is buying fuel but with the political situation in the Ukraine they know they are going to have to find another supplier. We often don't think of it like this but Russia is a emerging market nation. The fall of the Soviets way back when followed by the collapse of the Rubble in the 1990s pretty much dropped them back into the stone age for a decade. Now Russian is moving back up but its unstable there exports are limited and specialized. Russia sees the PRC who was once reliant on Russia and is more or less trying to cash in on there previous good relationship.

Now as for Russia buying from China, the two nations have different ideas in defense and motivation. China has come a long way but Russia's military and industrial development are going another. Russian client states and Chinese Client states are also a issue. They don't always get along and that can cause backlash.

To me the S-400 is like the SU-35. Why would China spend the money and time on the S-400 when they can invest that money and time to improve the HQ-9 platform ? Why would China have to add to its headache of integrating a new foreign system into its air defence networks ? China has the capability to make quite good fighter jets and SAM missiles (just think the Turkey deal). And that goes for subs as well why would China want to invest the time and money on foreign SSK's when they could invest the money and time in its own industry and technology.

But China is right to buy things like transport helicopters, jet engines and air lift planes because China's domestic industry at this point is unable to meet the needs of China. But that's not the case for missile's, SSK's and fighter jets. But i don't think that any country is selling nuclear subs at this point. The Russians didn't even sell nuclear subs or related technologies in the 1990's when they were bankrupt.

China buys S-400 SAM because its a much advanced system which can engage all types of aerial targets including aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), and ballistic and cruise missiles within the range of 400km, at an altitude of up to 30km ... It is two-times more effective than previous Russian air defence systems and can be deployed within five minutes.

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richardparker07 said:

China buys S-400 SAM because its a much advanced system which can engage all types of aerial targets including aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), and ballistic and cruise missiles within the range of 400km, at an altitude of up to 30km ... It is two-times more effective than previous Russian air defence systems and can be deployed within five minutes.

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No one is questioning the capability of S-400, just like no one is doubting that Su-35 is an advanced weapon system. The question is whether it is worth the headache. Does China have something similar coming on line soon? It's always more efficient to have your indigenous systems instead of a foreign one. And as I have argued so many times in the Su-35 thread, China's ambition and goal are to become a nation with the most advanced weapon development programs. To do that they have to develop weapon systems on their own, endure the growing pain and climb the painful learning curve. They had to import a lot of systems at the beginning because they fell behind too much before the 90's. They needed something to jump-start their own programs. Now that they have enough knowledge and experience to be on their own. Now it is time for them to throw away the crutches. To do that, they have to sacrifice the short-term gain of simply buying some advanced foreign systems and aim for the long-term strategic goal of developing their own advanced weapons development industry.

This is like learning anything new, an easy way out is usually the worst way. You have to sacrifice the short-term comfort for the ultimate goal of actually mastering some skill.