Russia set the trend to trade on Caspian sea and now the rest are joining. When you look at it all of them want to reach Gulf Arabs. Its Gulf Arabs dominance of Western economic system along with its power of religion that make them attractive partners.
Russia Economy Thread
- Thread starter NiuBiDaRen
- Start date
Interview about digital Ruble from CBR.
Islamic banking introduced in certain regions. Dagestani poet now on central bank coin. I have read in Russia central bank tartar chief highly influenced by Middleast approach of real cash in reserves for dollars. so they may have more reserves than disclosed and they still post $600b in reserves.
Islamic banking introduced in certain regions. Dagestani poet now on central bank coin. I have read in Russia central bank tartar chief highly influenced by Middleast approach of real cash in reserves for dollars. so they may have more reserves than disclosed and they still post $600b in reserves.
Putin want officials to switch to domestic cars. It is to set a trend in society. Russia domestic production only meet 40% of new car demand. but new car are only fraction of used cars market. to change the equation Russia domestic industry will need to produce upto 6 million vehicles per year. Russia only have high end Aurus and low end brands. There is nothing in middle. perhaps the EV will be the mid range brands. I think this Rouble devaluation is to discourage this inflow of used vehicles and other imports.
Russia now second in Uranium reserves and top 3 in nuclear fuel cycle. and Rosatom entering full production cycle of EVs not just batteries.
Russia now second in Uranium reserves and top 3 in nuclear fuel cycle. and Rosatom entering full production cycle of EVs not just batteries.
Same reason why Chinese Yuan is also losing badly against dollar. Interest rate in the US is high. Russia just has to raise interest rate to 12% just to defend the ruble. The Chinese is selling foreign reserve but cannot resist the devaluation. The Chinese cannot raise interest rate coz they want to support the firms.
Russia rouble is impacted by foreign shopping, vacation and that huge number of vehicles imported through parallel imports.
Russia vehicle production capacity is less than 1 million but actual market size is close to 6 million. I think lowering the rouble will discourage foreign vacations and can ease burden on Moscow airports so instead 4 to 5 airports. they may need 2 or 1 so better deal with drones.
The biggest problem is how to remove that dependency on certain models of Japanese vehicles who are very popular in Mideast and where all the influence comes from. simple search of few videos will tell you the real market. this parking garage is full of LC 300. a model barely one year used. the rest is Crimea a place where there is no skills to deal with Toyota 6 and 8 cylinder engines but they have these vehicles on the road. and the on older model is definitely rebuilt from UAE. It has Lexus rims and look completely new for 30 years old vehicles. Japanese direct imports for high end vehicles are banned and even if some coming there steering wheel will be to the right side.
First of all it's not "recently" but for over a year. The main reason was because "the special operation" won't be too long (it should already end a few month ago according to what they did last year). So they started printing ruble like crazy - that's why it's loosing value.
Do you remember those fantastic stories how they prepared for the war against West by stocking something like 500-600 billions USD before the war started? How much do you think it is now? I think that at the start of the month they had like 30-40 billion left in the tank. Half of that initial value is frozen all around the world, a big chunk are worthless papers like Gazprom's security bonds that no one will ever buy in case of internal crisis, the rest was put to save the ruble mainly. Some analysts predicted that 1 cent for 1 ruble will be hit when they Nabiullina won't be able to keep the tempo of ruble loosing it's worth and the date they predicted was last month. They got it right. They just don't have money to back it up so now they have to come up with something new and if they won't be able to that there will be grave consequences to the economy for the coming decade.
In Russia inflation is rising rapidly - yesterday there was an extraordinary meeting (it was planned for September) and they've raised the interest rates to 12% (just look up how it looked like in December 2021 to get a bigger picture). The official (worthless) numbers for yoy inflation is 4%. Where's the gap? The difference comes from reality - it is well above 30% right now.
Do you maybe want to know how much 92 RON and 95 RON grew since the start of the year (not yoy) on St Peter's stock market? It's 67% and 64% respectively.
Maybe someone's interested in how much the Chinese products share was for imports to Russia? Before the war it was around 15%. Right now it's about 40% and rising. There are many companies which were mobilized for the war effort, and that's the gap where Chinese took over. This means that squashing of many companies once Russia will be out of the war and they will have to go back to the normal things with their share of the market already taken over by Chinese companies.
Rising interest rates will hit the Russian "middle class" the most - first they've lost hundreds of higher income workplaces with the exodus of Western companies out of Russia and now rapidly rising interest rates.
It's estimated that right now around 40% of Russian budget is dedicated to the special operation effort. And I love how Indians made them a laughingstock when they started paying for the oil and gas coming to them in rupees. Yep, Russia now has 50 billions worth of rupees that they can't spend or exchange because no one will ever buy it from them! This means that effectively they're exporting it to India for nothing.
Medvedev wanted to rise the overall production of military equipment by 400%. How much it rose? From 250% for simple gun rounds to nothing in more complicated stuff.
And yes, it seems like the witch hunting had started this month because they can't pretend that everything is going according to the plan anymore - it will be Nabiullina or her deputy in the CBR most likely.
That's how things for Russia right now.
And PRC just lowered the their interest rates to the record low to help grow exports - which isn't going as favorably as they had wished most likely.