Russia Economy Thread

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henrik

Senior Member
Registered Member
The Russians can make sure that they can recycle the $$ that they earn for foreign stuff, otherwise they will not accept payments for their oil and resources. They can export more rubles, so that other countries can buy their oil in rubles.
 
X

xypher

Senior Member
Registered Member
gelgoog said:
Not just push the ruble up. It pushes the other currencies down.

Why do you think the euro is losing value and the fall sped up after gas for rubles scheme?
Most gas payments are likely being made in euros.
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Euro has been losing value even prior to that because Fed has been hiking the rates way faster than the EU. So while the "gas for ruble" scheme is obviously affecting the currency movements, the primary driving force has been the reluctance of the EU to quickly raise the rates due to the fact that the European economy has been largely propelled by QE and negative rates to produce some growth.
If the Russians did the same with oil payments in dollars then dollar would likely collapse.
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No, it wouldn't unless all other major exporters will also ditch the dollar as well - on a side note, I wonder whether the talks with SA and China about paying for Chinese oil imports with yuan are still ongoing. Plus dollar is used not only in the oil trade but almost everywhere, including all other commodities.
And yes the Russians can reduce the amount of exports to these sanctioning countries. Of course, the thing is, the Russians do not want to be the ones to break the contracts and pay penalties. So, of course, they won't unilaterally break contracts. But you will see them continue figuring out ways to stop incoming unreliable money flows from these countries.
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I am exactly talking about the latter part - which is why I think that Russia will start limiting the resource exports as Gazprom has done with one of the gas pipes.
And in the short term, you can't just change all your customers and move all the logistics around just like that, this will take time.
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No one saying that Russia should stop all the exports to the West, just limit them enough to cause more economic damage and help stabilize the ruble by limiting inflows of the unreliable currencies. Another way could be to demand hard currency instead, this money is way harder to track than those virtual transactions.
 
R

Rettam Stacf

Junior Member
Registered Member
After staying mostly with energy exports to counter the West's economic MAD, Russia appears to start rolling out new weapons - fertilizer and noble gas.

Putin confirmed to Erdogan that Russia can export food if sanctions are lifted — Kremlin​

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Chipmakers brace for more trouble as Russia limits exports of rare gases​

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A

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
gelgoog said:
In case you guys haven't been catching up, Russia has by this time removed most of the capital controls they put into place.
The key rate was lowered back to 9.5% which was the rate before the war started. And Russian citizens have no limitations on money transfers anymore including in foreign currency. Russian export companies also no longer need to convert their foreign currency earnings into rubles.

However limitations on monetary transactions for foreign companies and citizens still exist. Russia is supposedly also relaxing money transfer with regards to payment of salaries and/or remuneration for services for foreign individuals.

Payment of debts in foreign currency to countries in the list of unfriendly countries is still being made to special local Russian currency accounts in rubles.
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I still don't understand how the rouble currency exchange mechanism solves things long term. America and Europe can continue printing dollars and euros and get Russian oil and gas in return. If there really are western sanctions on Russia then you will be limited to what they can spend those dollars/euros on.

Unlike China right now, Russia is in a much better position to decouple from the west. The number of things that Europe produces that China or Asian countries can't is diminishing.
 
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