Real life thread


PiSigma

"the engineer"
Thats precisely the point, you know what has an energy payback of zero days? Oil...

You cant expect to convert the entire world to renewable sources with energy paybacks orders of magnitude worse than the low hanging fruit of crude oil and think the modern global system built around it wont be negatively impacted to say the least.

Nevermind the fact that the world is nowhere near or even close to reaching majority renewables anytime this decade or the next, and its proven that petroleum production globally is, has been, and will confinue to be on the decline at the very same time renewables arent ramping up fast enough to cover and you seem to be bragging about a 2 year energy payback like its some good thing all the while expecting the global system to largely remain business as usual?

Ludicrious
I think the term you are looking for is energy density. Oil products, such as naphtha and diesel still have the highest energy density outside of nuclear hands down. It's not hard to go full renewable, the problem is what you do when wind is not blowing at night and everyone is charging their electric vehicles, you get a Texas 2021.

There also isn't enough lithium in the world to store power to replace all the billions of cars, trains, ships, trucks and planes.
 

quantumlight

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think the term you are looking for is energy density. Oil products, such as naphtha and diesel still have the highest energy density outside of nuclear hands down. It's not hard to go full renewable, the problem is what you do when wind is not blowing at night and everyone is charging their electric vehicles, you get a Texas 2021.

There also isn't enough lithium in the world to store power to replace all the billions of cars, trains, ships, trucks and planes.

This is why the world is in for a reckoning... you admit there is not enough lithium in the world to create enough battery/power storage for all transportation in existence today, nevermind for any growth on that in the future. Nevermind the energy density problem. Nevermind the energy payback problem


Fusion is 40 years away at best, and even under the most optimistic of scenarios fast breeders wont be scaled up for another two decades... right now nuclear power is only 10% of world total.

Meanwhile oil/crude production globally is only going to decline year after year from here on out... anx the projected curves look pretty devastating

8 billion mouths to feed, most of that food grown with petro deratives

Anyone who doesnt think there is a huge problem on the horizon isnt facing the reality of truths
 

PiSigma

"the engineer"
This is why the world is in for a reckoning... you admit there is not enough lithium in the world to create enough battery/power storage for all transportation in existence today, nevermind for any growth on that in the future. Nevermind the energy density problem. Nevermind the energy payback problem


Fusion is 40 years away at best, and even under the most optimistic of scenarios fast feeders wont be scaled up for another two decades...

Meanwhile oil/crude production globally is only going to decline year after year from here on out...

8 billion mouths to feed, most of that food grown with petro deratives

Anyone who doesnt think there is a huge problem on the horizon isnt facing the reality of truths
I work in big oil remember, our internal predictions don't believe oil demand will drop below 60-70 million barrels per day in 2050.

There will still be plenty of oil, just the cost of extracting it will climb. The easy crude from middle East will become heavier and more sour. The Canadian bitumen and Venezuelan bitumen will become more economical. Exxon just wrote off 1 billion barrels of reserve in Alberta, but wait until shale oil run out, that paper reserve comes right back.
 

quantumlight

Junior Member
Registered Member
I work in big oil remember, our internal predictions don't believe oil demand will drop below 60-70 million barrels per day in 2050.

There will still be plenty of oil, just the cost of extracting it will climb. The easy crude from middle East will become heavier and more sour. The Canadian bitumen and Venezuelan bitumen will become more economical. Exxon just wrote off 1 billion barrels of reserve in Alberta, but wait until shale oil run out, that paper reserve comes right back.
By definition as EROEI of oil left underground keeps dropping, as you said, the more and more of energy will be devoted to extracting, processing, storing, transporting, using that energy itself and this takes away from literally everything else, it siphons from the real economy the same way a disporportionately large healthcare GDP is taking the life out of the real American economy.
 

W20

New Member
Registered Member
"There also isn't enough lithium in the world to store power to replace all the billions of cars, trains, ships, trucks and planes"

Cars ---> Lithium
Trucks -> Hydrogen
Industry-> Hydrogen

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Solar, Wind ... Hydrogen
 

quantumlight

Junior Member
Registered Member
"There also isn't enough lithium in the world to store power to replace all the billions of cars, trains, ships, trucks and planes"

Cars ---> Lithium
Trucks -> Hydrogen
Industry-> Hydrogen

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

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Solar, Wind ... Hydrogen
Hydrogen is not a source of energy its a storage mechanism unless we are talking about fusion which we are not

The point is there will be significant global economic reduction and downsizing pains during the transition in which the ramping up of renewables is no way shape or form going to make up for the loss in production of oil and the lowering of EROEI of the remaining oil that is produced. When your energy sources get more expensive, less dense, and more sparse, then there is no way this would not have a net material negative impact to the current global world and global economy that we have known.

We can debate how bad, how long, and to what degree the transition pains will suck, but anyone saying there isnt going to be a big picture impact is not being intellectually honest with themselves nor others
 

AndrewS

Major
Registered Member
Thats precisely the point, you know what has an energy payback of zero days? Oil...

You cant expect to convert the entire world to renewable sources with energy paybacks orders of magnitude worse than the low hanging fruit of crude oil and think the modern global system built around it wont be negatively impacted to say the least.

Nevermind the fact that the world is nowhere near or even close to reaching majority renewables anytime this decade or the next, and its proven that petroleum production globally is, has been, and will confinue to be on the decline at the very same time renewables arent ramping up fast enough to cover and you seem to be bragging about a 2 year energy payback like its some good thing all the while expecting the global system to largely remain business as usual?

Ludicrious

That is factually inaccurate

Virtually no one uses oil plants to generate electricity.

For every unit of energy required, gas and coal plants generate roughly 30 units of electricity.
Currently solar looks like 11 units.

But solar technology is now at grid parity with coal and gas. So it's cheaper.
Plus solar technology is still rapidly getting better.

We are on the cusp of explosive growth in the installation of solar energy panels.
Yes, it'll take some time to get rid of electricity plants running on coal and gas, but it is coming.
 

AndrewS

Major
Registered Member
I agree with this. Alberta have a $15 min wage, and it's been great for the lower income households. What it is not good for are the teenagers looking for a summer job or college students looking for part time work. Companies would rather hire someone more mature that would stay on the position for longer (worth the money spent on training).

The simple answer is a lower minimum wage for younger workers with no experience.
Apprentices only get £4.15 (5.78 USD) per hour

UK Example below.

25 and over£8.72
21 to 24£8.20
18 to 20£6.45
Under 18£4.55
Apprentice£4.15
 

PiSigma

"the engineer"
The simple answer is a lower minimum wage for younger workers with no experience.
Apprentices only get £4.15 (5.78 USD) per hour

UK Example below.

25 and over£8.72
21 to 24£8.20
18 to 20£6.45
Under 18£4.55
Apprentice£4.15
That was proposed a while back but was rejected because it is considered a type of discrimination in Canada. We don't have a apprenticeship system in Canada, and you can not discriminate based on age.
 

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