possible confrontation scenario with the US

i've recently read a very interesting novel by Patrick Robinson whos a military( naval) specialist/analyst depicting a possible confrontation between the USN and the PLAN

Possible scenario:

After undergoing extensive refit, the chinese SSBN renamed Xia III is undergoing sea trials in the Taiwan Strait and the US has despatched the USN most advanced SSBN the USS Seawolf to shadow and gain valuable data concerning the capabilities of this new Xia.

tensions between China and Taiwan/USA has now escalated and following another test fire of chinese ballistic missiles near the Taiwan Strait. The US is under pressure from Taiwan to act if their was an armed conflict with the mainland and the US issues a clear warning that should the PRC continue to menace and threaten Taiwan, America will most certainly step in, to which the Chinese counter " should there be an ICBM contest between our nations, we wonder if you'd really trade Taiwan for Los Angeles".

the seawolf arrive in the south china sea un-detected and shadows the Xia for a period of a week while learning its speed and dimensions in order to work out if the ICBMs she's armed with will be able to reach the west coast of the US. disaster strikes when the ships executive officer accidentally gets seawolf's rudder entangled in the Towed array sonar sported by China's new 167 luhai class guided missile destroyer in what is legally international waters.

The chinese Commander in Chief ordered her to be towed to the naval base of GuangZhou under the pretence of the USA sending such a Advanced/dangerous ship so close to chinese waters, where she'll be examined and copied, her crew incarcerated.

in this scenario how is the US going to react and how will China counter the US's effort to regain the billion dollar ship and her experienced crew?

Regards Raven

this will likely be another e-3 situation. the seawolf knows it doesnt have the power to take on the entire chinese navy. the u,s will probably make threats and demands on the political stage. but i dont see any battle. the chinese probably just scored a big hit

international waters? this is taiwan strait. both sides of it are "owned" by china.

there is no way china can forcibly tow the seawolf, but if the u.s wants to remain law abiding in the international community, it must allow the ship to be towed. the china would probably search the ship under the pretenses of removing any type 93 related data, but they might take a couple of extra things with them.

i've recently read a very interesting novel by Patrick Robinson

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LOL for a minute there i thought you were refering to that american preacher guy, the one that called for Hugo Chavez to be assasinated by the CIA because he had made Venezuela a communist safe haven for islamic terrorists:roll:

I don't think the US would send a Seawolf class SSBN to shadow a PLAN SSBN. More than likely an LA class sub would be used to shadow a PLAN SSBN. They are more suited for the task.

As for the Seawolf being snagged in the Towed array sonar. It's just not going to happen. But in someones immagination it would. If it did the Seawolf commander might well send out divers to cut the cable.

Honestly the story seems somewhat far-fetched to me.

MIGleader said:

this will likely be another e-3 situation. the seawolf knows it doesnt have the power to take on the entire chinese navy. the u,s will probably make threats and demands on the political stage. but i dont see any battle. the chinese probably just scored a big hit

international waters? this is taiwan strait. both sides of it are "owned" by china.

there is no way china can forcibly tow the seawolf, but if the u.s wants to remain law abiding in the international community, it must allow the ship to be towed. the china would probably search the ship under the pretenses of removing any type 93 related data, but they might take a couple of extra things with them.

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First of all, it does not have to allow itself to be towed by the Chinese. The Taiwan strait is international waters, owned by neither China nor Taiwan. A nation can only claim territory up to 15km off of their coastline. Everything else is considered international waters. In fact, the Chinese is on more shaky legal ground that the US would be in that scenario. Furthermore, the US submarine really doesn't have a choice- its got its propellars tangled. If it damages its propellars while trying to get free, it will lose its means of propulsion, making it a sitting duck. Furthermore, the Chinese can use that as a pretense to sink the sub, but I doubt they'd do so, since capturing the sub is much more advantageous.

sorry, i thought that the rudder was actually entangled, then loosened again, and that was how the sub was detected. i think the entangling is quite unrealistic. if the seawolf was indeed towed in, it and its crew would be a great bargaining chip for america. especially if china "checked it out", then sold it to iran or russia.

bd popeye said:

I don't think the US would send a Seawolf class SSBN to shadow a PLAN SSBN. More than likely an LA class sub would be used to shadow a PLAN SSBN. They are more suited for the task.

As for the sSeawolf being snagged in the Towed array sonar. It's just not going to happen. But in omeones immagination it would. If it did the Seawolf commander might well send out divers to cut the cable.

Honestly the story seems somewhat far-fetched to me.

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as for sending out divers to try and severe the cable, they did try that but was fired upon by small-arms fire which prevented any 1 from leaving the sub.
but i thought they could've left the sub via the torpedo tubes and then severe the cable underwater where the effects of small arms fire will be negligible.

but i thought they could've left the sub via the torpedo tubes and then severe the cable underwater where the effects of small arms fire will be negligible

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From my understanding of a LA class they maybe equipped to allow divers/swimmer to exit the boat via torpedo tubes. Most of these guys that write these techno novels never served a day in anyones military.

RavenWing278 said:

i've recently read a very interesting novel by Patrick Robinson whos a military( naval) specialist/analyst depicting a possible confrontation between the USN and the PLAN

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I've written my share of fictional techno thriller scenarios, particulalry about this specific PLAN-USN conforntation (The Dragon's Fury Series). That's pretty much what they are...fictional. I tried to give something plausible, but only if a whole bunch of unlikely things came together. I had to do that to account for the tremendous advantage the USN holds and is likely to hold over the next 20+ years.

So, while this scenario may sound good and be a fun read (and I am not going to deny that at all), to try and equate it to reality becomes a stretch because, outside of the chance that the PLAN had obtained the acoustic signatures of all other US boats, and the US knew it (which, by the way, is a part of my own scenario) the US would not use a Sea Wolf, they would use either and ADCAP LA class or a Virginia class depending on the time frame.

Once you get past that hurdle, there is the very unlikely scenario of the sub being tangled up in the towed array. They would know the DDG or FFG was there and stay plenty far enough away to avoid that. If something did happen, they would use divers or remote control unerwater vehicles to clear things up. One thing I do not believe they would do in any case is to deliver the sub to the PLAN...a war would be fought to prevent that...perhaps depending on who was in the White House at the time (which I also take into account in my scenario).

Just my own opinion on the matter based on my own dealvings into writing such scenarios...but I believe this one, while maybe a very exciting and fun read, is also unlikely.

Jeff, do you have your books available in the e-book format? If so, could you send me a free copy? I'd appreciate it greatly, thank you.