PLAN Strategy in the Taiwan Strait


T-Rex

Just Hatched
Registered Member
in term of its Navy Pakistan is not in a bad position, considering we only have 650 miles of coastline


4 x F22Ps
1 x Oliver Hazard Perry class (with 5 more due)
6 x Tariq class (Type 21 frigates)
5 x Submarines ( 3 Agosta 90B + 2 Agosta 70)
8 x Missile Boats
3 x Mine Hunters
8-10 Auxiliary ships
in addition to Hovercrafts and Patrol Boats

addded to that shore based anti-ship missiles, naval air defence and Pakistan Naval Aviation together this makes anyone entering Pakistanis waters a pretty risky business

we should replace

6 x Tariq Class with 4-6 x F23Ps
Alouette III with more Z9C helicopters
6 x Westland Sea King Mk45 with 6-10 Z8
Naval Dassault Mirage V are being replaced with Naval JF17
add 5 more upgraded Oliver Hazard Perry class frigates from US

Does the JF-17 have a naval version? What kind of weapons can it carry?
 
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Delbert

Junior Member
Get back to topic? I think many guys here are now shifting to Pakistan as a Chinese ally or Pakistan Navy...

Honestly this topic is already quite useless. With China's current massive technological improvement... Taiwan's defenses can already be considered... Useless perhaps?? considering it is very close to China.

Aircraft carrier won't even be needed for an invasion to retake the island.
 

Red Moon

Junior Member
Well, this old thread is still alive! I always objected to the title, because it seemed to me that the PRC's strategy in the Taiwan Straits has not been "naval" or even military at all in the last few years.

However, I think I am now proven wrong, or at least nearly so. In recent times, the work being undertaken up north by the China Marine Surveillance -- though not quite the navy -- seems to have EVERYTHING to do with the situation across the Straits, in terms of developing further common ground between the mainland and Taiwan, and further promoting the notion of cooperation on territorial affairs between the two entities.

Good things are coming; even Frank Hsieh has now visited the mainland and has met with some top leaders.
 

PiyaraPakistan

Just Hatched
Registered Member
Taiwan Warns China Could Mount a Successful Invasion by 2020
By Argin Chang & Debra Mao - Oct 9, 2013

China will be able to successfully invade Taiwan by 2020 as it gains military strength and develops technology to prevent allies such as the U.S. from coming to the island’s aid, the Taiwanese defense ministry said.

A military modernization campaign has seen China’s People’s Liberation Army enhance its ability to make long-range precision strikes and deny other ships access to the area, the ministry said in its 2013 National Defense Report. China’s defense budget has more than doubled since 2006.

Enlarge image Military Museum in Beijing

“As the PLA continues to grow and proactively builds its anti-access/area denial strategy, and as it develops long-range precision strike weaponry and extends its overseas power projection capability, they will become a serious threat to the security of our nation,” the report said.

The ministry’s assessment underscores China’s growing military might in a region where it has pressed its territorial claims more aggressively in disputes with Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam. The U.S. military says China has deployed a ballistic missile along its southern coast to deter American aircraft carriers in the region that might come to Taiwan’s aid.

The defense ministry report, released yesterday, comes as China and the island it considers a breakaway province have deepened economic ties. Chinese President Xi Jinping signaled he wants a political resolution, saying at a regional summit this month that the two sides can’t hand those problems “down from generation to generation.”

Asean Summit

China’s territorial disputes with other nations may dominate a two-day summit hosted by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations that begins today in Brunei. The report’s release may be aimed at reminding people of the China threat amid better ties, according to Wong Ming-Hsien, a Taipei-based professor at Tamkang University’s Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies.

“China’s military already has the power to attack Taiwan - - it’s now looking to counter threats from countries like the United States and Japan,” Wong said. “The report mentioning 2020 is to remind Taiwan and the rest of the world that China has not given up using force against Taiwan.”

China and Taiwan have been ruled separately since Nationalist Party forces led by Chiang Kai-shek fled to the island during a war against Mao Zedong’s Communists in 1949. Under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1972, the U.S. is obligated to maintain peace and security across the Taiwan Strait. U.S. military budget cuts may hurt the standing of the U.S. in Asia over the next 10 to 15 years, the report said.

Peaceful Momentum

Asked to comment on the report today, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said she hadn’t seen it but the two sides have “momentum of peaceful development.”

“We hope to keep communicating with Taiwan to protect the momentum,” Hua said. “This is beneficial to people on both sides and beneficial to regional peace and prosperity.”

China has stated that “separatist forces” in Taiwan are the main threat to peace, Taiwan’s defense ministry said. The PLA is already able to seal off Taiwan’s main island and occupy outlying islands, according to the report.

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Phoenix_Rising

Junior Member
I suggest that our government was intending to affect the vote across the strait instead of a re-unification by force, because military option was blocked by insurmountable financial obstacle.

PRC fiscal revenue & military budget(1986-1998).jpg

legend for the picture above:crimson=GDP, red=fiscal revenue, green=military expenditure, orange=ME/FR percentage, blue=ME/GDP percentage, the UoM is 100 million RMB.

From the picture you can see the degree and duration the PLA endured for the reform and opening-up policy. In, 1978 the ME/GDP percentage was 4.6%. Then, it depressed to 2.13% in 1984. 1996 was the nadir, ONLY 1.01%!

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You can also verify the data form here:

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, the website of the State Council Information Office.

I believe the missile tests and PHIBLEX was demonstration for attitude and stand, which in words dis-respective to the motherland, bluffing...

However, it resulted in hmmm...some sort of accidental(or not?) harvest. The candidate team of separatist's DPP(Peng Mingmin彭明敏 and Xie Changting谢长廷) was leading over in primary election, then, after 4 missile tests, KMT candidate Li Denghui李登辉 who advocated get-tough policy won the final election with overwhelming superiority, 54% to 21%.

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Considering the first dirct election of RoC president was not an emergency, our leaders had plenty of time and wisdom to make up a solution to steer the situation towards an acceptable outcome. Was Li's reappointment a result that our government chased on purpose? We will never know until the Central Archives publish those relevant files.

We mainlanders really don't need to care about the performance of politicians in Taiwan. Why? In 2013, RoC's export to PRC was $156.64 billion,import was $40.64 billion, and the GDP of Taiwan was $469.287 billion. The reality was that the trade with PRC occupies 42% of RoC's GDP and Taiwan became the 5th richest province of China, just exceeded by Henan河南. There are only 3 options to the RoC: 1, More trade, along with more communication, result in peaceful reunifying and decades of autonomy. 2(what they are doing underway), block the growth of trade and exchanges to gain some illusion of "democracy". Then, one day in near future, we will have to goto there clean up the mess caused by the economic recession and silly populism someday somehow. 3, Directly violate the Anti-Secession Law, dreaming a 200km-wide strait could be the barrier to world's No.1 shipbuilder and G2 are willing to clash for an outlying island risking Armageddon.
 
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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Interesting discussion that China is now seriously considering Taiwan invasion It was spark by an article "Taiwan temptation" on foreign policy . The conventional thinking are China won't even attempt it due to weakness of her military and China will pay high cost in term of economic repercussion, or China can lose. But those conventional wisdom is true 20 years ago. It might not be true now circumstance change . Specially in military capability which we all see it in this forum. China make huge progress in narrowing the gap. Except few category like submarine and quantity, I am not sure if China is behind anymore

The Shifting Military Balance across the Taiwan Strait | Lyle J. Goldstein, Oriana Skylar Mastro​

What is happening across the Taiwan Strait? In March, Admiral Philip Davidson, then commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific (INDOPACOM), said in a hearing before Congress that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could take place within six years. His successor, Admiral John Aquilino, agreed that such an attack could occur sooner “than most think.” More recently, however, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, General Mark Milley, testified that he believes that China has little intention to take Taiwan by force, and that the capability to do so remains a goal rather than a reality. On July 19, 2021, the National Committee hosted a virtual program with Lyle Goldstein and Oriana Skylar Mastro to discuss China/Taiwan/U.S. military relations. NCUSCR President Stephen Orlins moderated and NCUSCR Director Admiral Dennis Blair offered commentary.

 

solarz

Brigadier
Interesting discussion that China is now seriously considering Taiwan invasion It was spark by an article "Taiwan temptation" on foreign policy . The conventional thinking are China won't even attempt it due to weakness of her military and China will pay high cost in term of economic repercussion, or China can lose. But those conventional wisdom is true 20 years ago. It might not be true now circumstance change . Specially in military capability which we all see it in this forum. China make huge progress in narrowing the gap. Except few category like submarine and quantity, I am not sure if China is behind anymore

The Shifting Military Balance across the Taiwan Strait | Lyle J. Goldstein, Oriana Skylar Mastro​

What is happening across the Taiwan Strait? In March, Admiral Philip Davidson, then commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific (INDOPACOM), said in a hearing before Congress that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could take place within six years. His successor, Admiral John Aquilino, agreed that such an attack could occur sooner “than most think.” More recently, however, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, General Mark Milley, testified that he believes that China has little intention to take Taiwan by force, and that the capability to do so remains a goal rather than a reality. On July 19, 2021, the National Committee hosted a virtual program with Lyle Goldstein and Oriana Skylar Mastro to discuss China/Taiwan/U.S. military relations. NCUSCR President Stephen Orlins moderated and NCUSCR Director Admiral Dennis Blair offered commentary.


Weren't you saying China couldn't possibly mount an invasion due to lack of landing ships?
 

james smith esq

Junior Member
Registered Member
Why couldn’t China simply turn the West’s tactics against them and use money to affect a “Color Revolution” in Taiwan? When the pro-unification protests grew large enough that Taipei had to use force to contain them, China could intervene in order to protect human-rights and protect freedom of assembly. Is this way too antithetical to PRC philosophy and practice?
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Weren't you saying China couldn't possibly mount an invasion due to lack of landing ships?
Yes I did and I still believe they lack the sea lift But as I said before it is not due to lack of technology China can easily built hundred of LST if it so desire They have plenty of small shipyard that can do it I guess timing is still nor right of they still not yet decided on the invasion. I expect they will start crash program to built LST if they decide to invade Taiwan
 

JSChineseTiger

New Member
Registered Member
Why couldn’t China simply turn the West’s tactics against them and use money to affect a “Color Revolution” in Taiwan? When the pro-unification protests grew large enough that Taipei had to use force to contain them, China could intervene in order to protect human-rights and protect freedom of assembly. Is this way too antithetical to PRC philosophy and practice?

China has pretty shitty intel service to do color revolution in other countries. CIA and Secret Intelligence Service are top of the game in the world when it comes to toppling governments. Think James Bond.
 

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