Firstly, all of this ‘lack of sea lift’ nonsense is just just nonsense, and seems to be based purely off of the idiotic notion that since Taiwan technically can have a million men under arms, China need to send in two million.
For starters, the China of today isn’t the China of the Korean War where they need numerical superiority to overcome technological deficits. It is actually China that enjoys technological dominance in almost every conceivable and relevant field compared to the ROC.
Only direct American military intervention can bring about technological parity, but no realistic American intervention scenario involves massive US ground troop deployments into Taiwan, so it doesn’t change the calculation at all in terms of the number of boots on the ground needed by the PLA.
Secondly, Chinese military sealife capabilities are only needed to secure the beachhead. Once that has been accomplished, they can make as many round trips as they like with their landing ships to bring in all the reinforcements they want. Hell, at that stage they can use civilian ferries if they want. Let’s not forget that even the British used civilian cruise ships as troop transports and container ships during the Falklands. It really doesn’t matter if you achieve air and sea dominance.
I have always maintained that the PLA has determined it had the means to take Taiwan any time it wanted over a decade ago. It’s only because the base requirement has been met that they can afford to look to true global power projection capabilities like carriers, LHDs, 055s, Y20s and H20s etc.
All of those big ticket items are absolutely not necessary for a Taiwan scenario. Western analysis and punts keep scratching their heads at how China plans to use those assets in a Taiwan scenario and fail because they are making the mistaken assumption that China needs to throw everything including the kitchen sink at Taiwan to take it, so of course it needs to use those new crown jewel assets! But they just cannot square the circle and reconcile the blue water long distance power projection nature of those assets and Taiwan being so close to China. Those assets are for China’s future belt and road investments, because that’s where China has determined America will most likely try to pick a fight once it finally accepts the reality that Taiwan is not only a lost cause, but a total death trap if they are stupid enough to walk into it.
I personally think a primary reason China has not yet moved on Taiwan is because it is playing a far longer game, and for far higher stakes than America realises.
Think about it, how could China continue to massively invest in its MIC and rapidly built a military that can beat America’s and not cause the Americans to absolutely loose their collective shits over?
So long as China doesn’t take Taiwan by force, enough Americans will take that as proof positive that China could not yet do so to hamstring and cripple their Cold War 2.0 efforts domestically. Because something like 90% of America have been brainwashed into thinking China as cartoonish villains who will ponce as soon as it thinks it has a chance at winning. That, coupled with ingrained brainwashing, will mean that no matter how big and advanced the PLA becomes, most Americans will still think USA is automatically better and more powerful.
American political elites are where the late Qing dynasty was in its self delusion and allowing the hard won technological, economic, political, and most critically, military advantages of past generations atrophy away as they peruse pure greed, corruption and base indulgences.
A total and humiliating military defeat over Taiwan is the kind of watershed moment that might trigger a full blown revolution as the people are violently snapped out of the brainwashing stupor the western MSM have been keeping them in for decades. While that might be good for China in the short run, in the long run, it could result in a far more capable and dangerous opponent coming back to get revenge after they have put their own house in order.
China is, in my view, building up the raw hard power capabilities to take full advantage of any American revolution or Civil War 2.0 that may result from a loss over Taiwan to fundamentally and irreversibly reshape the world to its own benefit and lock in all of its gains rather than have it only be temporary and easily rolled back by America once it re-emerges from its own internal purges. At a minimum.