PLAN SCS Bases/Islands/Vessels (Not a Strategy Page)

youngtomous said:

As I know ,this resource only a small part for the China have.

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Who said it wasn't?

Please avoid getting into the "chest thumping," or pure nationalistic rhetoric.

My comments were not meant to invoke that.

youngtomous said:

so you don't know what China can do if "US, Australia, Japan, helping Vietnam, the Philippines".

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See my above comments...they apply here too.

youngtomous said:

and Vietnam did a very silly work. they started this .he can open this Pandora box but when stop is not depend on him.

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Ditto the above.

The Vietnamese planners know what they are about. It would be foolish in the extreme to cavalierly dismiss what they do...and, youngtomous, though you may think they are "silly," I have every confidence that the PLAN professionals and leadership do not view it that way in the least.

antiterror13 said:

Just a quick question Jeff, do you think they (major powers) would help Vietnam and the Philippine in a big way?

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No, I do not.

Would Vietnam hire a Bechtel or a Simplot individually, or someone like that to help do similar Reclamation work? Perhaps.

But without a really strong, multi-lateral effort involving the governments of the US, Australia, Japan, etc., I do not believe it will have a hope of competing with what the Chinese are doing.

I just do not see those nations, and particularly the current US administration, being willing to do something like this.

But clearly, the PRC is...and has made it a lynchpin of their SCS efforts.

delft said:

A technical question: If you fill in a reef like Subi how long would it take for rain to fill the ground with fresh water, assuming the current climate in the area?
( World climate is changing so current climate is no guarantee for the future )

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I was thinking of asking the same thing. When Itu Aba Island was expanding its airstrip, they had to cut down quite a few of big trees along the center axis of the island, so that must have affected the island as a whole to retain fresh water right?

Zetageist said:

I was thinking of asking the same thing. When Itu Aba Island was expanding its airstrip, they had to cut down quite a few of big trees along the center axis of the island, so that must have affected the island as a whole to retain fresh water right?

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I don't think the reclaimed islands will retain any meaningful fresh water on their own given that they were mostly submerged and any water cap would already be contaminated with seawater.

Itu Aba - maybe the removal of trees may have reduced the water retaining capacity but I would think the paved runway be a bigger hindrance to fresh water containment than the removal of trees.

ahojunk said:

Does anyone has statistics of the SCS island sizes?
.

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no_name posted a size comparison photo in #726 post:

That biggest ring atoll on the upper right hand corner is Pratas (Dongsha) Island/atoll, controlled by Taiwan (ROC). The Pratas Island itself is only 1.08 km^2, but its entire atoll is huge 420 km^2. The Taiwanese government had made the entire atoll into its first marine national park. It is sitting on top of a guaranteed huge gas/oil fields, and China (PRC) had oil rigs nearby exploiting them for years.

Various south china sea islands and reefs to scale.

Yellow - controlled by China and Taiwan (Taiping island included)
Red - controlled by Vietnam
Blue - controlled by Philippines
Green - controlled by Malaysia

White is probably no established presence, I don't know why.

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joshuatree said:

I don't think the reclaimed islands will retain any meaningful fresh water on their own given that they were mostly submerged and any water cap would already be contaminated with seawater.

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Well, it depends on how far they go with the reclamation.

If they add significant "soil" in the form of the right kinds of sand and dirt...and then ensure that it is appropriately supported underneath to avoid erosion......and they then fertilize it and add ground cover suited for the climate and environment where they can...and then install sprinkler systems to water it appropriately...they may be able to kick start the growth of vegetation which. over time will start to retain moisture in the soil and keep the process going.

I am sure they have very good minds working on all of this for the islands where it may be appropriate.

joshuatree said:

No it will not decline, Taiping's ability to generate an EEZ is the most sought after strategic resource in that area.

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I was thinking in a different way. Sure, other than Itu Aba Island's EEZ and as a 'One China' Chinese first claim as a whole to Spratly Islands group, the usefulness (as cooperation bargaining chip in SCS) of Itu Aba to China (PRC) is declining once those artificial islands are up and running. Mind you though, PLAN couldn't access to Itu Aba Island in the first place anyway.

On the other hands, because of increasing Chinese PLAN activities in the region and Itu Aba is right in the middle of it, Its strategic value to United States will increase. According to Taiwanese media, U.S. has been protecting Itu Aba and Pratas Islands through out the Cold War era. In exchange, Taiwanese military will provide intelligence gathering (weather and current stats) to U.S. The multiple facilities upgrades to Itu Aba Island were also according to U.S. suggestion. Even before Taiwanese military has the transport plane that can fly to Itu Aba directly, Taiwanese planes needed to first land in Philippines to refuel. Philippines government actually agreed to this because of Taiwanese military presence on Itu Aba is a counter weight to the aggressive Vietnamese incursions (islands and reefs grabbing) on the Philippines side of SCS. Since Philippines controlled Thitu Island lacks the facilities and Philippines military as a whole lacks the sophistication to gather intelligence for the United States, the cooperation between Taiwanese and U.S. militaries will hence increase in SCS. This is why Taiwanese government is also busy upgrading its facilities on Itu Aba and you didn't even hear a whisper from the United States.

joshuatree said:

I don't think the reclaimed islands will retain any meaningful fresh water on their own given that they were mostly submerged and any water cap would already be contaminated with seawater.

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Of course it is all salt water to begin with. But the rain falling on it will be fresh water contaminated with some spume from the sea. By creating the right structure in which water can flow "deep" underground into the sea but not at a shallow level you can have fresh water floating on the salty on your island to a depth of how many meters? It is all a matter of design and time. I'm incompetent in guessing how much time but reasonable designers will not have neglected this aspect of island life.

At Meiji Island, land reclamation has started at three locations.

Progress of Yongshu Island in pictures, from 8 Aug 2014 to 8 Jan 2015, i.e. over 5 months.

The progress is just incredible.