PLAN SCS Bases/Islands/Vessels (Not a Strategy Page)


AndrewS

Captain
Registered Member
I don't see a military conflict happening between China and Vietnam.

China has so many economic or gray zone options available, and Vietnam know that China has escalation dominance at every level right up to a full scale war



Of course. China would never even want to bully an Asian neighbor like that. Any sleights that ASEAN countries suffered from China in the SCS is completely self-inflicted by their thinking that a foreign power like the US could be brought in to withdraw China. Without that, China would be happy to share everything and prosper with them. But the unpleasantness that sometimes occurs are a necessary punishment for them when they think they can lean on the US in Asia. Once they realize that a stronger China in the world means a stronger Asia in the world and that they would all profit tremendously from working China for that goal, everything will be smoother than butter.

That said, things would have to go wayy south for this conflict to occur. Vietnam would have to have done something far over the line. Short of that, China will work with them. But if that day comes, then China must make sure to take more in territory from Vietnam than what the entire world could withhold from China in the backlash.
 

AndrewS

Captain
Registered Member
Talking up their Su-30s and Kilos have deluded many gullible nationalists into thinking they stand half a chance. This unsubstantiated sense of ability have convinced many that Vietnam can actually fight and hold off China. Just like many think India can do the same and Australia too. Fantasy self-reassuring is what it truly is because so far we've been hearing this sort of stuff for many years now but strangely enough, they all just keep talking about how they are able to do this and that and the only reason they don't follow through is not because of their real incapability but rather because they are just too civil and nice :rolleyes: Crafty buggers the lot of them. Can't win the real fight, must win the trashtalking so they lick their self-inflicted wounds through words of mutual encouragement and self-assurance and try to convince themselves and each other that they can continue to mistreat and bully China. Humans are truly pathetic worms. An honest and decent man among that group is hard to find. Even the US knows all bets are off in a war so trade war is their most daring effort to date. It's worked against Russia in the past so they are trying to replicate it with China.
Agreed on Vietnam

But Australia is far enough that it is difficult to project power, and India is potentially big enough to resist
 

goat89

New Member
Registered Member
I don't see a military conflict happening between China and Vietnam.

China has so many economic or gray zone options available, and Vietnam know that China has escalation dominance at every level right up to a full scale war
When i visited Vietnam last year, they mentioned that any procurement they had was based on a deterrence model, ot an offensive one. They know they cant win China in an all-out war, but rather depend on a deterrence stance.
 

AndrewS

Captain
Registered Member
The vietnamese might be proud of their past of defending against the americans, but the fact of reality is that if they want to maintain good relations with Beijing in the future and avoid conflict , they'll have to assume the same diplomatic stature with it as the phillippines ( Duterte) i.e.don't act too smart...
Apparently the US war is but a footnote in Vietnamese history. What is taught is the 1000 year domination when it was a Chinese province and then the countless China-Vietnam wars since then.

The problem is that Vietnam cannot escape from the shadow of China, whereas Vietnam is statistically one of the smaller Chinese provinces and nobody in China really cares about Vietnam.

If they keep teaching an anti-China narrative in the schools and in the media, how can they have a productive rerelationship?
 
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AndrewS

Captain
Registered Member
When i visited Vietnam last year, they mentioned that any procurement they had was based on a deterrence model, ot an offensive one. They know they cant win China in an all-out war, but rather depend on a deterrence stance.
That is fine from China's point of view, as long as Vietnam doesn't become a base for someone else.

It is not in China's interest to get into a war with Vietnam and vice-versa.

China's preference is to focus on domestic economic development, which will inevitably draw Vietnam into China's orbit. And result is mutual economic benefit.

And look at how Canada and Mexico simply had no choice but to cave into Trump's trade demands this year.
 

goat89

New Member
Registered Member
That is fine from China's point of view, as long as Vietnam doesn't become a base for someone else.

It is not in China's interest to get into a war with Vietnam and vice-versa.

China's preference is to focus on domestic economic development, which will inevitably draw Vietnam into China's orbit.

Look at how Canada and Mexico simply had no choice but to cave into Trump's trade demands this year.
Correct, its China's 'hunger' for economic devleopment thats driving it
 

Icmer

Junior Member
Registered Member
Apparently the US war is but a footnote in Vietnamese history. What is taught is the 1000 year domination when it was a Chinese province and then the countless China-Vietnam wars since then.

The problem is that Vietnam cannot escape from the shadow of China, whereas Vietnam is statistically one of the smaller Chinese provinces and nobody in China really cares about Vietnam.

If they keep teaching an anti-China narrative in the schools and in the media, how can they have a productive rerelationship?
In terms of population, Vietnam would actually be one of the largest Chinese provinces, being slightly larger than Henan and only surpassed by Guangdong and Shandong. Vietnam is 2x the population of South Korea and 3/4 that of Japan (it seems likely that they will surpass Japan in the near future.)
 

AndrewS

Captain
Registered Member
In terms of population, Vietnam would actually be one of the largest Chinese provinces, being slightly larger than Henan and only surpassed by Guangdong and Shandong. Vietnam is 2x the population of South Korea and 3/4 that of Japan (it seems likely that they will surpass Japan in the near future.)
Economically Vietnam are just another Chinese province.

As for them growing economically larger than Japan one day, it's too early to say. R&D spending is at 0.2% which is absolutely awful.

But they still have another decade at least with basic industrialation and urbanisation.
 

mr.bean

Junior Member
In terms of population, Vietnam would actually be one of the largest Chinese provinces, being slightly larger than Henan and only surpassed by Guangdong and Shandong. Vietnam is 2x the population of South Korea and 3/4 that of Japan (it seems likely that they will surpass Japan in the near future.)
population alone means nothing, it's the QUALITY of the population that matters. no Vietnam will never surpass Japan in any time ever.
 

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