PLAN SCS Bases/Islands/Vessels (Not a Strategy Page)


antiterror13

Brigadier
Phillippines did a legal preemptive strike. Basically, it wants the court to rule everything China holding around Spratley illegal. China is not going to sit there and wait for the rulings. I think taking the case to the court directly prompt China's current action. Once the ruling comes there will no more good faith negotiations in the future. They will always under the cloud.
Basically, Philippines cut off China any wiggle room and backs it to the corner.

I really like your anaysis, it explains a lot .... but I think China also want to complete this reclamation (including buildings and facilities) as soon as possible before new US president elected in the end of 2016. I thing Chinese planners have assumed that new president would be from Republic and tougher on China and would increase defence spending significantly. So China have roughly 20 months to complete all.

Interesting to read that Philippine vice president (Jejomar Binay) openly said would cooperate with China

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tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
I really like your anaysis, it explains a lot .... but I think China also want to complete this reclamation (including buildings and facilities) as soon as possible before new US president elected in the end of 2016. I thing Chinese planners have assumed that new president would be from Republic and tougher on China and would increase defence spending significantly. So China have roughly 20 months to complete all.

Interesting to read that Philippine vice president (Jejomar Binay) openly said would cooperate with China

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I think if Philippines didn't start legal thing, China would postpone the reclamation work. From one Chinese article I read, they have prepared this reclamation long long time already, maybe more than 10 years.

It's questionable that Philippines selectively challenge China's spratley island claim being illegal. What about Vietnam's claim? Its way beyond the 200 miles off its coast. What does Phillipines think of that? The court should question Philippines how come they didn't file against Vietnam 's claim? What's the motivation?
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
Philippines 's strategy is to kick out China first with its selective legal case and then sit down with other claimants and decide how to divide up the cake.

hope the court can see through this; its being used for political games.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
I don't want to go further of the politic ... sorry Jeff a bit off topic.

I think Philippine want to be seen brave and patriotic by "attacking" China and seek "sympathy" and support from the US

If the Philippine did that to Vietnam, there will be hardly any news ... so it would mean nothing
 

Zetageist

Junior Member
I think if Philippines didn't start legal thing, China would postpone the reclamation work. From one Chinese article I read, they have prepared this reclamation long long time already, maybe more than 10 years.

It's questionable that Philippines selectively challenge China's spratley island claim being illegal. What about Vietnam's claim? Its way beyond the 200 miles off its coast. What does Phillipines think of that? The court should question Philippines how come they didn't file against Vietnam 's claim? What's the motivation?

I thought Philippines' case against China is primarily about China's Nine-Dashed Line being illegal under 1982 UNCLOS pertaining to Philippines' 200 nm EEZ. The case is not about the sovereignty of Spratly Islands. China acquired their 6 reefs from Vietnam during Johnson South Reef Skirmish of 1988, and if Vietnam occupied those reefs prior to 1982, then UNCLOS laws won't be able to apply to those reefs because the occupations predated UNCLOS. I saw the photos of Filipinos protesting against China are more specifically regarding the confrontation and asserting control by China of Mischief Reef in 1994 and then again the Scarborough Shoal in 2012 which are well within Philippine's EEZ long after UNCLOS is established.

Also, if you bring 'One China' into play, the EEZ of Itu Aba Island (occupied by Taiwan) would probably cover all reefs occupied by China maybe except Mischief Reef in the Spratly Islands. That is why there was a big debate in Philippines when they were about to submit their case to the international court whether to include Itu Aba Island. Even the loyalty of their chief justice leading their legal team was put in question for not including Itu Aba in the first place. After advice by the American legal team, Philippines purposely included Itu Aba Island in their case and called it a rock rather than an island so that it won't have any EEZ to speak of.
 
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Blackstone

Brigadier
I thought Philippines' case against China is primarily about China's Nine-Dashed Line being illegal under 1982 UNCLOS pertaining to Philippines' 200 nm EEZ. The case is not about the sovereignty of Spratly Islands. China acquired their 6 reefs from Vietnam during Johnson South Reef Skirmish of 1988, and if Vietnam occupied those reefs prior to 1982, then UNCLOS laws won't be able to apply to those reefs because the occupations predated UNCLOS. I saw the photos of Filipinos protesting against China are more specifically regarding the confrontation and asserting control by China of Mischief Reef in 1994 and then again the Scarborough Shoal in 2012 which are well within Philippine's EEZ long after UNCLOS is established.

Also, if you bring 'One China' into play, the EEZ of Itu Aba Island (occupied by Taiwan) would probably cover all reefs occupied by China maybe except Mischief Reef in the Spratly Islands. That is why there was a big debate in Philippines when they were about to submit their case to the international court whether to include Itu Aba Island. Even the loyalty of their chief justice leading their legal team was put in question for not including Itu Aba in the first place. After advice by the American legal team, Philippines purposely included Itu Aba Island in their case and called it a rock rather than an island so that it won't have any EEZ to speak of.
China-Philippines argument is complex in that Philippines properly used UNCLOS to bring China to international court, but China also properly used a different clause in UNCLOS to opt out of the proceedings. Both sides claim legal rights under UNCLOS, and I don't envy the judges that have to render the decision.

Taiwan is a completely different matter. It is a province of China, and can't actually claim EEZ on its own, because EEZs deal with nations and not between parties in a civil war. So, either Beijing 'allows' Taiwan to use EEZ for Itu Aba and the rest of the South China Sea, or Taipei 'allows' Beijing to use EEZ for the disputed SCS areas.
 

Zetageist

Junior Member
Taiwan is a completely different matter. It is a province of China, and can't actually claim EEZ on its own, because EEZs deal with nations and not between parties in a civil war. So, either Beijing 'allows' Taiwan to use EEZ for Itu Aba and the rest of the South China Sea, or Taipei 'allows' Beijing to use EEZ for the disputed SCS areas.

That reminded me of the saying 'History is written by the victors'. I just finished watching Netflix's Marco Polo Season 1. The series started from: Mongol Empire had conquered Jin Dynasty and occupied the Northern China. Kublai Khan had self-proclaimed as the emperor of China so he was eager to unite the whole China by attacking the last remnant of Song Dynasty, Southern Song. Kublai kept referring the Southern Song, as Rebel Song, or something like that. Just like China (PRC) is referring to Taiwan (ROC) as a rebel province.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
That reminded me of the saying 'History is written by the victors'. I just finished watching Netflix's Marco Polo Season 1. The series started from: Mongol Empire had conquered Jin Dynasty and occupied the Northern China. Kublai Khan had self-proclaimed as the emperor of China so he was eager to unite the whole China by attacking the last remnant of Song Dynasty, Southern Song. Kublai kept referring the Southern Song, as Rebel Song, or something like that. Just like China (PRC) is referring to Taiwan (ROC) as a rebel province.
Beijing calls Taiwan a rebellious province, and Taipei says it's the legitimate government of China. The Chinese civil war (20th Century version) never really ended, and it's not clear who will actually win in the end. I say that because Red China could win by economic and military might, but Taiwan may also achieve victory by politically winning over the Mainland middle-class, over the next 40 or 50 years. For now, the world recognizes PRC as the legitimate China, and by extension endorses its stance on Taiwan as a wayward province.
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
I thought Philippines' case against China is primarily about China's Nine-Dashed Line being illegal under 1982 UNCLOS pertaining to Philippines' 200 nm EEZ. The case is not about the sovereignty of Spratly Islands. China acquired their 6 reefs from Vietnam during Johnson South Reef Skirmish of 1988, and if Vietnam occupied those reefs prior to 1982, then UNCLOS laws won't be able to apply to those reefs because the occupations predated UNCLOS. I saw the photos of Filipinos protesting against China are more specifically regarding the confrontation and asserting control by China of Mischief Reef in 1994 and then again the Scarborough Shoal in 2012 which are well within Philippine's EEZ long after UNCLOS is established.

Also, if you bring 'One China' into play, the EEZ of Itu Aba Island (occupied by Taiwan) would probably cover all reefs occupied by China maybe except Mischief Reef in the Spratly Islands. That is why there was a big debate in Philippines when they were about to submit their case to the international court whether to include Itu Aba Island. Even the loyalty of their chief justice leading their legal team was put in question for not including Itu Aba in the first place. After advice by the American legal team, Philippines purposely included Itu Aba Island in their case and called it a rock rather than an island so that it won't have any EEZ to speak of.
Spratley island is within 200 miles of palawan
 

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