The PLAN's evolving strategy has been described in terms of two distinct phases. The strategy's first phase is for the PLAN to develop a "green water active defence strategy" capability. This "green water" generally is described as being encompassed within an arc swung from Vladivostok to the north, to the Strait of Malacca to the south, and out to the "first island chain" (Aleutians, Kuriles, Ryukyus, Taiwan, Philippines, and Greater Sunda islands) to the east. Analysts have assessed that the PLAN is likely to attain this green water capability early in the 21st century. Open-source writings also suggest that the PLAN intends to develop a capability to operate in the "second island chain" (Bonins, Guam, Marianas, and Palau islands) by the mid-21st century. In the future, the PLAN also may expand its operations to bases in Myanmar, Burma. These bases will provide the PLAN with direct access to the Strait of Malacca and the Bay of Bengal.
The major problem of attaining the 2nd island chain capability is that China's geography makes it hard for her to break out into blue waters. These choke points will really hamper China's blue water ambition.
They are:
1.) Straight of Malacca towards the Indian ocean. Indian held Andaman Islands guard the Indian Ocean entrance while Singapore guard the south china sea entrance.
2.) Luzon straight and East China Sea pass the Ryukyu islands are the only way out towards the Pacific. Okinawa and Guam bases guards the exit out.
Choke points were the same problems faced by the Soviet Union. Its Black Sea fleet is hemmed in by the Straight of Bhospurrous (sp), North Fleet by the Greenland, Iceland, UK gap, Baltic Fleet by Denmark and the North Sea, and the Pacific Fleet by Tsushima and the LA Perouse Straight which takes it very near Japan.
The major problem of attaining the 2nd island chain capability is that China's geography makes it hard for her to break out into blue waters. These choke points will really hamper China's blue water ambition.
They are:
1.) Straight of Malacca towards the Indian ocean. Indian held Andaman Islands guard the Indian Ocean entrance while Singapore guard the south china sea entrance.
2.) Luzon straight and East China Sea pass the Ryukyu islands are the only way out towards the Pacific. Okinawa and Guam bases guards the exit out.
Choke points were the same problems faced by the Soviet Union. Its Black Sea fleet is hemmed in by the Straight of Bhospurrous (sp), North Fleet by the Greenland, Iceland, UK gap, Baltic Fleet by Denmark and the North Sea, and the Pacific Fleet by Tsushima and the LA Perouse Straight which takes it very near Japan.
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