PLAN choke points

darth sidious said:

welcome to the 21th centry this is not 1812 learn a bit more about econ before talking

there are a million ways china can use to seek revenge on on america for this
they include :

1 dumping all T-bonds causing hell on the US economey

2 attack those nation that support the american effort

3 use ties to forgein nations the pressure US ( you can hold out against the world forever

the list goes on and on

also chinas surface fleet maybe be destroyed reletive quickly but airforce and sub fleet wont be so easy they can be usd to imposed counter blockade

especialy at those who provide base to US with impovements in weaponary over the last 50 years the effect will be devasting

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1.) Dumping T-Bonds will not caused hell in the US economy, just in the bond market. Look at it this way, if I owe you money and refuse to pay you, what can you do? China can't exactly make the US pay up.

2.) Attacking neutral countries is a sure way of isolating yourself. These countries will go from supporting US diplomatically to supporting US militarily.

3.) US has greater ties to other countries than China has. More importantly, US has greater ties to more powerful countries, both militarily and economically, such Japan, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Australia, India, Mexico, and Brazil. Chinese ties are with weaker and poorer countries.

4.) Name more...

Hmm I think you guys are downplaying the importance of Indonesia..have
you noticed how EVERYBODY is visiting Indonesia ?

I don't think the Indonesia public would support an American blockade of
China and if the chinese government played it's cards right it would
outright oppose it.

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I don't think there is any love between Indonesians and Chinese. Chinese in Indonesia are not exactly well treated.

IDonT said:

Vietnam still has lingering memories of the 1980's Chinese invasion and naval battle in the spratleys area.
Thailand is a US ally
Cambodia maybe
Myanmar maybe
Malaysia is in the ANZAC alliance, which included UK and Australia. Easy diplomatically to adopt a pro US stance.
Laos Maybe.

Those countries are part of ASEAN. SIngapore, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia are the senior members of the organization and will have some sway on which side those countries will be on. Since most of them are US allies or have shown some hostilities to the Chinese, they will be in the US camp at best or neutral at worst.

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Vietnam will be netrual because they have no strong tie with both China and US.
Thailand also have a very strong tie to China. As you don't know, Thailand buys a lot of their weapons from China. Thailand also have long friendly relationship with China. So I can't agree on this one.
Cambodia, maybe.
myanmar maybe.
Laos, maybe.
Malaysia don't like US, they definite will not support US. Malaysia previous PM had a very strong anti-US stance. So Malaysia will be netrual.
Indonesia is very unlikely to support US either, same reason as Malaysia their muslim population will not like the idea.
Singapore is very complicate. They might support US for many things, but in a war with China. They probably will stay netural. Chinese ethnics in Singapore still have a strong connection to China, and singapore and China have a friendly term for years. I just don't see they will go to US side.
Philipines probably will in US camp.

I don't think you take into serious conderation for the change of environment after the Asia financial crisis. Many countries in Asia just don't view US as they did before.

IDonT said:

1.) Dumping T-Bonds will not caused hell in the US economy, just in the bond market. Look at it this way, if I owe you money and refuse to pay you, what can you do? China can't exactly make the US pay up.

2.) Attacking neutral countries is a sure way of isolating yourself. These countries will go from supporting US diplomatically to supporting US militarily.

3.) US has greater ties to other countries than China has. More importantly, US has greater ties to more powerful countries, both militarily and economically, such Japan, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Australia, India, Mexico, and Brazil. Chinese ties are with weaker and poorer countries.

4.) Name more...

I don't think there is any love between Indonesians and Chinese. Chinese in Indonesia are not exactly well treated.

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Do you have an degree in economics or related work experience or at least any credentials to support what you've just claimed?

I think you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about and is making up shit as you go along...

"Dumping T-Bonds will not caused hell in the US economy, just in the bond market"

That so funny on so many levels... :roll: I can't fathem the possiblilty of anyone aside from the average joe claiming the bond market is somehow an non related entity that is independant of our economy.

bond market, Forex and stock market are interrelated. They have direct relations to the interest rate and foreign exchange of a country. It all has to do with economic well being of a country. A chinese hit on the bond market will translate to decrease in the money market, lower money pool to the extent that the national bank can not jack up the prices to balance the market. It will severely shock all market systems.

Unless US choose to default on the T-bill which is unlikely since that would create a new wave of horror in market confidence and suck all foreign funds away from the US market.

So in conclusion its a no win situation either way and will definately have the US end up in a severe stagnation.



2)If a country chooses to assist the US military then by no means are the netural.

3) yup... lets see world economy tremble before the EU consideres supporting US actions on China.
It the same EU that is considering to drop the weapons embargo.

And how does this relates to PLAN choke points???
ff ff

IDonT said:

Yes...the concept is called far blockade. All the US has to do is guard the Straight of Malacca, Luzon straight, and East China Sea exit. No shipping can go China's ports with US permission.

This won't be a 100 % blockade of course. The land route to Russia is still open. But considering the the majority of the world's goods travel by sea, then you have an effective economic blockade.

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Again, no nation is above international law. Do you think the world will sit back and and nothing when the U.s navy starts firing on harmless chinese civilian freighters, killing innocent sailors? Do you think the world will do nothing when the u.s navy sinks chinese tankers, spilling thousands of barrels of oil into the oceans? Do you think the world will do nothing when the u.s cuts off their primary steel and textiles producer? I dont think so.

The WW2 blockade of Germany was justified in that Germany had blockaded the u.k earlier in the war. Most of Germany's essentials still came by land. Besides, the primary things sunk were oil and rubber, materials fo war. In the Cuban missle crises, the u.s did not fully blockade Cuba. Only weapons were not allowed to pass. These past events do not give the u.s the right to break international law again.

I do not wish to be off-tipic, but it is nessecary to show how impossible a blockade is.

Thus, if we talk about a war that is conducted fairly, China will have few chokepoints. The only major concern is if the u.s fleet chooses to block off the northern entrance to taiwan strait, preventing the east and north sea fleets from sending ships tp assist the south.

The only other ckoke point i can think of is the area south of the korean penninsula. A blockade their could lock up the north sea fleet.

MIGleader said:

Again, no nation is above international law. Do you think the world will sit back and and nothing when the U.s navy starts firing on harmless chinese civilian freighters, killing innocent sailors? Do you think the world will do nothing when the u.s navy sinks chinese tankers, spilling thousands of barrels of oil into the oceans? Do you think the world will do nothing when the u.s cuts off their primary steel and textiles producer? I dont think so.

The WW2 blockade of Germany was justified in that Germany had blockaded the u.k earlier in the war. Most of Germany's essentials still came by land. Besides, the primary things sunk were oil and rubber, materials fo war. In the Cuban missle crises, the u.s did not fully blockade Cuba. Only weapons were not allowed to pass. These past events do not give the u.s the right to break international law again.

I do not wish to be off-tipic, but it is nessecary to show how impossible a blockade is.

Thus, if we talk about a war that is conducted fairly, China will have few chokepoints. The only major concern is if the u.s fleet chooses to block off the northern entrance to taiwan strait, preventing the east and north sea fleets from sending ships tp assist the south.

The only other ckoke point i can think of is the area south of the korean penninsula. A blockade their could lock up the north sea fleet.

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Mig,

You are confusing the concept of a blockade with unrestricted submarine warefare. There are standard operating precedures on how to stop liners in the ocean without resorting to firing a harpoon.

Also, international law? Do not tell me you are that naive. The world is an anarchic system. That is there is no single body that governs it. To effectively govern it you need coersive power (military or economic). Without a police force to enforce it, international law is not worth the paper it is printed on.

As for choke points, most of China's oil still come from the Straights of Malacca, easy to blockade. (stop tankers to inspect their traveling papers and escort them to their destination) A single aegis ship can keep in tabs of all the naval traffic in the area.

Enough with economic blockade though. In military terms, the PLAN does not have the capability to break out of the first Island Chain. It is stuck their. Its naval forces cannot sortie out into "open" ocean without being easily detected, tracked, and in a wartime, engaged because its path is detectable. That was one of the problems with the Soviet Fleet.

China can tell all of its merchant liners to not stop for U.s Ships. If the u.s ships open fire on the Chiense merchant vessels, that would trigger an international outcry. I'm sure presidents nowadays care more about approval ratings than the country, so if the u.s public is opposed to the war heavily, the war will end. After spending XXX dollars in iraq, XXX in iran, XXX in venezuela, do you honestly think the American public will put up with the u.s engaging another enemy?

IDONT

acording to your plan all china has to do is register its ships in another nation and the US cant do a dame about it ( during the war bewten Iran and Iraq some nation did this to protect their tankers)

thats what the flag of convinence is for ( also that why you see ships registerd in poor countries )

unlessthe cargo are weapons the ship must be allowed to pass

if you conduct your blockade wil be preety much useless block netural shipping then china can hit back with subs

also if itsa short term war ( less then a year ) oil supply wont be badly effected rationing and increase production in chinese oil field will large over come this

ontop of that there are Russian imports and reserve stock


if nation support the US blockade then they are by no means netural this can be consider an act of agression aginst china so you point is moot

asmentioned before the bond market is connected to the stock market unless America defults it has no means of countering the chihnese bond dump

Nation cant be moved after the war they will still face a hateful china likely Germany after WWII I doubtanyone want that ( especialy those connected to china by land ) right now I cant think of any nation (except russia ) capableof resisting a chinese land invasion

so they will think twice before joining the US

FreeAsia2000 said:

Hmm I think you guys are downplaying the importance of Indonesia..have
you noticed how EVERYBODY is visiting Indonesia ?

I don't think the Indonesia public would support an American blockade of
China and if the chinese government played it's cards right it would
outright oppose it.

Click to expand...

Yes. As with any Muslim nation, the US is in a precarious position. However, US tsunami aid went along way in Indonesia. But right now Indonesia is "up for grabs." It should stay that way. It could be like in India in the Cold War, playing both sides and maintaining freedom.

Indonesia would have a lot less value if Singapore went the opposite way of Indonesia. There are a lot of Chinese people in Singapore, but they have a good defense relationship with the US so they too are up for grabs.

Uh, How will Having a relation with Laos help the PLAN? Laos is landlocked!

Indonesia's situation depends from area to area, but if you are talking about Sumatra, yeah, I wouldn't go there.

Ifyou form relations with Cambodnia/Thailand, it wouldn't sour the other's relation, will it? And how good will Thailand's deal be anyway? It has some pretty big relations with the US also.

Myanmar might be a good option for the PLAN, since a base there gives you good access to the Bay and ocean, and that to get from China to Myanmar by land, just drive through Yunnan. The deal will be Okay as long as people don't think too much of either country.

Malaysia, possible.
Singapore, I wouldn't.
Even though Singapore has a largely Chinese background, Malaysia is not without its own, and that's when China has probably better relations there.
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Too bad PLAN is locked out of PLAN.
Japan, Taiwan, and Phillipines is lining the shore there and none of them are pro-China.......