PLAN Carrier Strike Group and Airwing

latenlazy · Jan 18, 2014

Re: PLAN Carrier Construction

xiabonan said:
Liaoning's Provincial Party Committee Secretary has just said publicly that "after the commissioning of the Liaoning, China's second home-constructed aircraft carrier will start construction at Dalian, with an estimated construction cycle of 6 years, together with 2 other 052D guided-missile destroyers. "

First, this MAY or MAY NOT be reliable. But I believe it should be as it corresponds to what we have known so far (North and South each will build a carrier, with the North start the construction of 052Ds). Although the number of 052Ds does differ from what we have known (2 vs 4).

Second, in the original report what he said was "国产" which literally translates into "country-made" or "country-produced" or "country-manufactured". So, by "second" he could mean that Liaoning is the first OR he could mean that the carrier at Shanghai has already started construction (which may be those structures we have seen in photos).

These are just some of the possible interpretations of his words and some of my own speculations. Do take it with a grain of salt.
her rank and higher power than the governor. Also, many provincial level or municipal cities' party chiefs, especially young and capable ones from important places such as Shanghai, will eventually rise to the most powerful elite Politburo Standing Committee, or even become premier or Party General Secretary, who's also the President, and Chairman of the Central Military Co
For those who are not familiar with Chinese system, a provincial party committee secretary (also known as "party-chief") is the highest level party official in a province. Although the provincial governor is the head of government, the "party-chief" has actually higmmittee.

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We could square the count for Type 052Ds by interpreting that the statement only refers to ones built in Dalian, with the other two being built in Jiangnan. Nice catch on the guy using the term 国产.

I agree about the reliability of this statement. Provincial Party Chiefs are generally very reliable sources, since they're the guys who make sure important projects in their purview are going smoothly and getting the right resources and attention.

Bltizo said:
More likely it would be the former, methinks, given most people qualify shipbuilding start as keel laying and subcomponents are usually created outside of "awareness" whereas fitting out is generally included in the "construction time".

But this entire thing is still as suspect as any other carrier construction rumour.

I think it's less suspect because of the position of the person. It also aligns very well with the recent noise we've been getting on new carrier construction.

Totoro · Jan 18, 2014

Re: PLAN Carrier Construction

Bltizo said:
More likely it would be the former, methinks, given most people qualify shipbuilding start as keel laying and subcomponents are usually created outside of "awareness" whereas fitting out is generally included in the "construction time".

But this entire thing is still as suspect as any other carrier construction rumour.

my, i did write "latter" didn't i? in fact, i wanted to write "former". I also think the likelier meaning is that construction here does not include pre keel laying work. but six years after that is still really required to put the thing together, float it out, fit it out, do shipyard test. by the time all that's done, we're really looking at 2019, at a minimum.

Unrelated to that piece of new/rumor, i have recently started to consider that this first domestic carrier may in fact be heavily based on ulyanovsk, as some rumors about blueprints said. it sort of makes sense, even with the two modules seen at dalian and shanghai. they could both be related to a ship of same design - ulyanovsk like carrier with both a ski ramp and waist catapult.

another possibility is that there may in fact be two carriers built nearly simultaneously, but of different designs. another one of chinese "high risk" and "low risk" double project endavours. so maybe dalian will build a stobar carrier much like liaoning, considered a low risk solution, while shangai will build a high risk catobar design. which would probably take longer to complete and test.

then, if the shanghai one doesn't perform as wanted, another stobar might be in order before a modified construction process of the high risk design happens.

yes, all of this is just guessing.

Blitzo · Jan 18, 2014

Re: PLAN Carrier Construction

I can't see the benefits of a carrier with both ski jump and waist catapults. If the catapults are reliable enough to be fit at the waist they are reliable enough to replace the ski jump.

The idea of a high risk and low risk carrier does sound interesting though.

(Addendum, there were a few configurations of the Ulyanovsk class, one of which had bow catapults as well, I believe. So there isn't exactly a " set" design that we can say china may base its carriers off, unless we use the configuration of ski jump+catapult as the defining feature of the Ulyanovsk. EDIT: never mind this part, I mixed up models of the Orel with Ulyanovsk.)

Blitzo · Jan 18, 2014

Re: PLAN Carrier Construction

latenlazy said:
We could square the count for Type 052Ds by interpreting that the statement only refers to ones built in Dalian, with the other two being built in Jiangnan. Nice catch on the guy using the term 国产.

I agree about the reliability of this statement. Provincial Party Chiefs are generally very reliable sources, since they're the guys who make sure important projects in their purview are going smoothly and getting the right resources and attention.

Over on CDF it was said that DL would get more 052D contracts once they prove themselves with the first two (which should be a given), and that the final count should definitely be four for DL.

Was the 052D included in the "six year construction cycle" or was that just for the carrier? Because DL should be able to do more than 2 052Ds within six years even if they face issues.

Which is why I think the "two" 052Ds refers to boats already on order, probably with two more pending after completion or DL proving itself.

I think it's less suspect because of the position of the person. It also aligns very well with the recent noise we've been getting on new carrier construction.

I agree, it's only a matter of time now and all the wind is blowing in the right direction. Sub component manufacture is probably already well on the way, and we just need to see the hull.

latenlazy · Jan 18, 2014

Re: PLAN Carrier Construction

Bltizo said:
Over on CDF it was said that DL would get more 052D contracts once they prove themselves with the first two (which should be a given), and that the final count should definitely be four for DL.

Was the 052D included in the "six year construction cycle" or was that just for the carrier? Because DL should be able to do more than 2 052Ds within six years even if they face issues.

Which is why I think the "two" 052Ds refers to boats already on order, probably with two more pending after completion or DL proving itself.

6 years only refers to the carrier.

Blitzo · Jan 18, 2014

Re: PLAN Carrier Construction

latenlazy said:
6 years only refers to the carrier.

Ah, TY, well then I hypothesize the two mentioned 052Ds only refer to fully contracted orders, and the two other expected boats are expected but are yet to be inked.

That would fill the 8 south, 4 north 052D production allocation, and reasonably means JN don't have all of its 8 052Ds ordered yet either (probably the 4 in visible states of construction, fitting out or sea trials + 2 more inked + 2 more yet to be ordered)

navyreco · Jan 18, 2014

Re: PLAN Carrier Construction

xiabonan said:
View attachment 9072

View attachment 9073

Some clearer pictures of that giant structure.

Sorry, but this is actually supposed to be a piece of Art

Blitzo · Jan 18, 2014

Re: PLAN Carrier Construction

navyreco said:
Sorry, but this is actually supposed to be a piece of Art

Well the actual thing sitting in the shipyard clearly isn't a piece of art or a building.

But it obviously isn't a real aircraft carrier module either, it is just a demonstration module.

I think the building in the drawings is based on the demonstration module, rather than the actual demonstration module being a building itself. How are they going to move it for one? Not to mention it is all metal, no glass...

navyreco · Jan 18, 2014

Re: PLAN Carrier Construction

Bltizo said:
How are they going to move it for one? Not to mention it is all metal, no glass...

I got the impression from the drawing that the back part is metal... to which they will add a glass part later on ?

Believe me, "modern art" can be really messed up!

Blitzo · Jan 18, 2014

Re: PLAN Carrier Construction

navyreco said:
I got the impression from the drawing that the back part is metal... to which they will add a glass part later on ?

Believe me, "modern art" can be really messed up!

Even if that were the case, it makes almost zero sense to fabricate a building at a shipyard where construction space and worker time is at a premium... And end up having to somehow transport and lift such a monstrous piece of work onto land.

Btw the buildings are notional exhibition buildings for the shipyard itself (caption). I suppose I can see why constructing an exhibition display in the shape of an aircraft carrier module makes sense, even if the module itself is only a demonstrator.

PLAN Carrier Strike Group and Airwing

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