It's less than 8000km from Hawaii to North East China
PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC
- Thread starter SEAD
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It's less than 8000km from Hawaii to North East China
There are currently 9-10K US marines in Okinawa.
The Japanese Amphibious Brigade is supposed to grow to 3K marines, which is a 3x smaller force.
Plus they are based in Nagasaki in the Japanese Home Islands, which is some 800km from Okinawa.
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So how will those Japanese marines "comfortably" assume American military obligations?
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It's not just to make American forces in Okinawa "less vulnerable to Chinese first strikes"
By 2030, my guess is that the Chinese will "easily" achieve air-sea superiority over Okinawa and be able to impose an effective blockade.
In such a scenario, large numbers of US or Japanese forces on Okinawa are a liability.
That is based on a 2030 Chinese orbat of:
a) 900+ 5th Gen Stealth Fighters
b) 1500 4th Gen Fighters
c) Along with missile strikes and other supporting air elements.
In reality, there are 20,000 Marines in Okinawa. The long-standing Japan-US agreement was to withdraw 9,000 of the 20,000 Marines from Okinawa, which is currently underway. Not all USMC will leave Okinawa; they will still maintain a constant presence on the islands.
And yes, they can take on the tasks because it's not just the Japanese amphibious brigade that will increase its presence; this redeployment is seen as a deterrent to threats from China. Furthermore, they won't have the same responsibilities as the US Marines throughout the Pacific, so they can take over the Americans' role in protecting Japan's homeland.
The context of the comment was the American withdrawal from ROCK and Japan to Guam/Marianas/Palau.
It doesn't change how a large number of US Marines are leaving Okinawa and being replaced with a smaller number of Japanese Marines based elsewhere.
Is Japan serious?
From the Japanese perspective, they can't afford to lose control of the air over Japan.
But the Japanese Air Force only has 300 fighters, only some of which are stealthy.
Yet we are likely looking at China ramping up production of stealth fighters to 150+ per year.
All of Japan is within 1300km of China, so can be reached with:
1. Stealth Fighters and other heavyweight fighter-bombers with airborne refuelling
2. Hypersonic missiles (eg. DF-17 class)
3. High-end Cruise missiles
4. Low-end piston engine cruise missiles
And I notice India has a new low-cost glide bomb with a range of 180km with a 108kg warhead.
If Chinese aircraft use an equivalent bomb, they can fly safely offshore but reach almost every target in Japan.
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I just don't see Japan building a credible military against China, unless the US is heavily involved.
But not ZERO damage, like what you claim. Plus, They have already have some Himars on Taiwan that can reach your shore without any problem. As long as you can't cut their logistic route, they will always have Himars near your shore. Plus there are Typhoons on Philippine isles that can endanger your ships if you send them to surround Taiwan.
Can China solve those formation? Of course they can. China can destroy those Himars and Typhoons. But they can also hit China and cause damages.
That's, if China still has some stamina to continue the war without stopping. But do you believe that they still have any spare energy to continue the war? To destroy 3 countries in the biggest battle of the century, China would have sacrifice a lot of things. Do you think the current number PLA is enough to fight in a total war situation against several countries? So they have to mobilize the people. How many are they? It's depend. But to destroy the three countries, the death toll will be higher than Ukraine.