PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC

zyklon

Junior Member
Registered Member
Similar to the case of the J-7s, the IISS appears to be late by ~1 year.

They counted 8x operational ABs with J-20s, which at full strength would amount to 240x J-20s. There are also a few tens (?) of J-20s in some test and training units. As such, they arrive at a count of 230+ J-20s, which isn't unreasonable on the basis of their unit count.

Meanwhile, a proper count of J-20 units shows that, in November '24, there were 10x operational ABs fielding the J-20. The IISS appears to have missed the 97th AB (converted in late '23) and - unsurprisingly - the 19th AB (converted in August '24).

Today (i.e., June '25) there are 11x known operational ABs fielding the J-20, which suggests a total of up to 330x J-20s are in operational service, with a further few tens (?) in T&T units. IMO, an estimate of ~350x J-20s in PLAAF service is reasonable, whereas the total produced (but not necessarily inducted - which is what the IISS counts) is certainly above 400x.

Overall, it appears that IISS data on the PLAAF, claimed to be current as of November of a given year (in the latest case, 2024), is in fact more-or-less current as of November of the previous year (in the latest case, 2023). Which is IMO decent for an organization that tracks the fluctuating OoBs and equipment holdings of almost every military in the world without an exclusive focus on PLA watching.

1. Your figures look pretty reasonable!

2. If ~350 J-20s are in PLAAF service even though over 400 airframes have been produced, then what are 50+ J-20s up to?
 

SinoAmericanCW

Junior Member
Registered Member
1. Your figures look pretty reasonable!

2. If ~350 J-20s are in PLAAF service even though over 400 airframes have been produced, then what are 50+ J-20s up to?
The balance would presumably be in the process of delivery. It's normal for there to be a gap between when an aircraft leaves the factory and when it enters service within an operational unit, and not just for the PLAAF.

Some may in fact have already been delivered to ABs for which we have yet to see evidence.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
China produced J-7 until 2013. I heard that the last few batches of J-7 have better electronics than Russian imported SU-30/27s. So when pilots switch to su-30 they get surprised by how outdated the cockpit is.
Well, yeah, those Flankers are probably all analog cockpit. Since they are 1990s designs.
But Russia did have the Su-27SM with LCD MFDs in the 2000s. China could have just bought the upgrade but they decided to do their own thing. I wonder how hard it would be to retrofit the J-16 cockpit to those aircraft. Anyway it will all be replaced with J-20s.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
I'll just reply here, since you brought up this discussion in this thread first.

I think still think China has made a big mistake, which is to use just 1.5% on defense, hoping that hide and bide will help them prevent more war and more western attacks on China's economy. But hide and bide is no longer working and all the military threats show China needs to boost its spending much much higher.

Israel extreme boldness comes from the US. China should start to realize any kind of restraint is simply not going to stop the US. They need to boost their defense spending now or regret in the future.

Heck, if anything - China's 1.5% is actually outperforming the US and her allies' >2% in actual spending efficiency.

That's something which only comes in a package - An all-encompassing package which every other country clearly lacks.

Also, there's this:

If anything - China's comparably lower 1.5% versus all of her opponents' >2% actually means that China has much greater room to expand her defense spending/budget into, compared to all her opponents - All while avoiding eating too much into the GDP such that it negatively affects the spending/budget for the other sectors of the national economy.
 

sunnymaxi

Major
Registered Member
I'll just reply here, since you brought up this discussion in this thread first.



Heck, if anything - China's 1.5% is actually outperforming the US and her allies' >2% in actual spending efficiency.

That's something which only comes in a package - An all-encompassing package which every other country clearly lacks.

Also, there's this:

If anything - China's comparably lower 1.5% versus all of her opponents' >2% actually means that China has much greater room to expand her defense spending/budget into, compared to all her opponents - All while avoiding eating too much into the GDP such that it negatively affects the spending/budget for the other sectors of the national economy.
the biggest problem with @tamsen_ikard is, he sees China with the eyes of western world.


this 1.5% of total GDP China spending on defense is actual much more efficient and cost effective and it is actually much bigger because of the Physical size of China's economy.. from raw material to parts manufacturing to electronics and equipment/tools all are sources from domestic suppliers plus the cost and wages. its dirt cheap as compare to western Military industrial complex..

USA with 900+ billion USD budget still struggling with shipbuilding , next gen submarine cost overrun, F-35 production slash down , E-7 AWACS cancelled and no budget for FA-XX as well.. what about next gen destroyer ?? out of 70 submarines only 35 are operational. all ships are rusty and old. so my point is, why US looks incompetent despite spending close to 1 trillion USD on defense.

and if the time comes, China could increase spending with ease but this is not the case with USA coz of monumental debt.
 
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Enestori

New Member
Registered Member
Again, I don't believe China is spending only 1.5% of its GDP on the military.

You do not get superior naval and equivalent aerial military production, plus massive nuclear expansion, while spending 3x less than the USA.

Perhaps the 1.5% military spending refers to the PLA ground forces. Maybe PLAAF spending is classified as science and technology, while PLAN spending is classified as environmental protection (protecting China's waters from external pollution).
 

00CuriousObserver

Junior Member
Registered Member
Again, I don't believe China is spending only 1.5% of its GDP on the military.

You do not get superior naval and equivalent aerial military production, plus massive nuclear expansion, while spending 3x less than the USA.

Perhaps the 1.5% military spending refers to the PLA ground forces. Maybe PLAAF spending is classified as science and technology, while PLAN spending is classified as environmental protection (protecting China's waters from external pollution).

Ngl, I'm surprised by how many people here talk about the 1.5% at face value without caveats

At the very least, there are some differences in how this 1.5% is measured.
 
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Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
Again, I don't believe China is spending only 1.5% of its GDP on the military.

You do not get superior naval and equivalent aerial military production, plus massive nuclear expansion, while spending 3x less than the USA.

Perhaps the 1.5% military spending refers to the PLA ground forces. Maybe PLAAF spending is classified as science and technology, while PLAN spending is classified as environmental protection (protecting China's waters from external pollution).
No, US is simply so corrupt and inefficient that it is spending more than 3x for same or less.

The constellation frigate is likely to cost MORE than the 055 lol
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Again, I don't believe China is spending only 1.5% of its GDP on the military.

You do not get superior naval and equivalent aerial military production, plus massive nuclear expansion, while spending 3x less than the USA.

Perhaps the 1.5% military spending refers to the PLA ground forces. Maybe PLAAF spending is classified as science and technology, while PLAN spending is classified as environmental protection (protecting China's waters from external pollution).
Just compare car prices in China and the US. Cars with equivalent properties are several times more expensive in the US than in China.
 
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