Point #1:
I think the starting point made on the start of the discussion is correct (I think by
@Patchwork_Chimera ). If the US/Taiwan crosses a red line, China will do a first strike against Taiwan and US-Japanese forces.
If you ask "but why attack US-Japan when there is a chance they could sit it out", I will counter with, "the same reason why I didn't include S.Korea as a PLA target for a first strike". People here should be intelligent enough to understand what I am trying to convey
Point #2:
Because Taiwan declared independence, doesn't mean that China is required to wage war the next day, potentially unprepared. It can start with continuous massive war exercises and the US will be unable to keep up with the tempo. The moment the PLA deems it is time to go, one of these military exercises will be the real deal and in a few hours Taiwan/US/Japanese assets will be wiped off from the map
So what I am trying to say, the PLA will have the element of surprise and it will be China which will have the advantage of making the first move,
even if Taiwan declares independence first, because as I said, China isn't obliged to start a war whenever Taiwan decides to declare independence
Point #3:
If a war happens, China's victory condition for Taiwan isn't merely a regime change, but actual unification, military base rights, police rights, foreign policy rights etc. (Basically unification). If a war doesn't happen, then China can negotiate with Taiwan, however if a war happens, Taiwan's fate is pre-determined
Point #4:
If a war happens, both sides will be damaged. However we shouldn't forget that this war would automatically put an end to the current world order from which the US depends on so heavily to maintain its hegemony (economy, politics, diplomacy). So by saying "oh well the US can just retreat from China's neighborhood and continue the war from elsewhere" ignores that at that point the US hegemonic empire is basically finished. This has too many real and practical consequences so I will just summarise them with one word, catastrophic.
At that point I would say China would be the winner in relative terms. As for blockades and all that stuff, they would only blockade themselves (while China will have the BRI) and also make the whole world their enemy.
People who dismiss the Global South, do so in their own peril.
Point #5
There is 0% chance that the US will win any war against China in the 1st + 2nd Island Chains. The more people talk about it, the more they demonstrate their ignorance.
Now if you want to talk about war expanding even further, that's fair. However, I would then counter, why does China need to immediately go out of its safe region? For blockades and all that, China can just spam produce 10000s of missiles and shoot anything hostile that moves in the water from the other side of the planet (at least far enough to reach the Indian Ocean and the Arabian sea)
Point #6:
US is a declining empire. Contrary to Western propaganda, the US is alienating more and more countries with its provocative behaviour which resembles that of a rogue state. North Korea doesn't hold a candle on the US on this aspect. By constantly provoking China on Taiwan, the US will find it out that there is much less appetite to sanction China as much as they sanctioned Russia (which even now is only the Global North, and even them are infighting now)
Final Point #7:
Pelosi proposed visit to Taiwan is as much of an "accident" as Biden has "misspoken" about defending Taiwan. Enough said. If she really comes to Taiwan a strong military response by the PLA is 100% guaranteed.
The upcoming Party Congress AND the PLA anniversary in this August, means that there is 0% chance for a strong military response to not happen
Could easily write more points but this post is already long enough so lets end this here
