First, I think we need to establish why it makes sense for plan fleet to be there and what are the likely steps it would take to stay there. And also question of how they can establish a fleet there.
Over the next few years, china is likely to ramp up it's naval activity so that it's normal for them to be having several destroyers around Ryuku, Japan's main islands and generally east of Taiwan. So in order to maintain normalcy, they probably won't try to deviate from their regular deployment by having pre gather a fleet there. It will likely assemble there when they are about to start attacking. Presumably, they will initially launch a lot of missiles and follow that up by strike aircraft and bombers coming in for further destruction. At this stage, they will want to move large portion of their fleet to area of choke points. That might take a couple of days to accomplish. The opening couple of days with push plaaf to it's limit in terms of expected number of sorties in both strike and escort roles. At this point, assuming they have destroyed many capital surface ships and military command center and infrastructure, they are likely to have a couple of days where they can move into their position in east of Taiwan. I think at this point, they would opt to have as large of a fleet as possible. They would also need to make sure that Taiwan and Okinawa are completely offline in term high altitude air defense and over the horizon anti ship threat. That would require continued ucav and strike aircraft sorties.
At this point, they will hopefully have done enough to attempt landing of penghu and orchid island. It would be for different purpose. Penghu island and kinmen would allow them to keep up with their destruction with artillery and rockets. Penghu is also a harder island to take. Kinmen on the other hand is quite small and should be very easy to take. It would require deploying a 075 on the east of Taiwan. Assuming they can take both, they will now be able to build air strip on two airport off the mainland even if they don't take Taiwan proper.
Penghu is 875 km from Okinawa, 2850 km from Guam and probably 1000 km away from where they would want to station their fleet. That is about another 1600 to 2000 km from Guam. I don't think I need to explain why that's a good distance away.
Orchid island is 765 km from Okinawa, 2600 km from Guam and 750 km away from where they would want to station their fleet.
I took a look at orchid island and the lanyu airport is on the west side. It actually isn't very easy to attack from north or east due to terrain. So I think it would be a lot easier to defend that air strip from cruise missiles than a flat island terrain. They will probably look to get as many construction workers, equipments and air defense units established as soon as they can.
Let's say they have a month and half until facing a 3 csg usn fleet, they do have time to setup air bases in both lanyu and penghu. Both airport should support most military aircraft including possibly MPAs and refuelling tankers. That would actually significantly improve their ability to sustain a large fleet 1800 km west of Guam since they will can sustain more land based aircraft in the event of a conflict. They can sustain hale isr drones better if they can take off from lanyu instead of somewhere on the main land.
All of this assumes they do not try a beach landing on Taiwan proper. If they try a landing, they could conceivably put an airport into usage long before they take over Taiwan. So my premise here is that in any conflict where they have a month and half before an arriving usn, it's likely they will be able to extend the reach of their land based air wing. Therefore, they may start off operating closer to mainland but then move further out as they have more land base aviation support.
Over the next few years, china is likely to ramp up it's naval activity so that it's normal for them to be having several destroyers around Ryuku, Japan's main islands and generally east of Taiwan. So in order to maintain normalcy, they probably won't try to deviate from their regular deployment by having pre gather a fleet there. It will likely assemble there when they are about to start attacking. Presumably, they will initially launch a lot of missiles and follow that up by strike aircraft and bombers coming in for further destruction. At this stage, they will want to move large portion of their fleet to area of choke points. That might take a couple of days to accomplish. The opening couple of days with push plaaf to it's limit in terms of expected number of sorties in both strike and escort roles. At this point, assuming they have destroyed many capital surface ships and military command center and infrastructure, they are likely to have a couple of days where they can move into their position in east of Taiwan. I think at this point, they would opt to have as large of a fleet as possible. They would also need to make sure that Taiwan and Okinawa are completely offline in term high altitude air defense and over the horizon anti ship threat. That would require continued ucav and strike aircraft sorties.
At this point, they will hopefully have done enough to attempt landing of penghu and orchid island. It would be for different purpose. Penghu island and kinmen would allow them to keep up with their destruction with artillery and rockets. Penghu is also a harder island to take. Kinmen on the other hand is quite small and should be very easy to take. It would require deploying a 075 on the east of Taiwan. Assuming they can take both, they will now be able to build air strip on two airport off the mainland even if they don't take Taiwan proper.
Penghu is 875 km from Okinawa, 2850 km from Guam and probably 1000 km away from where they would want to station their fleet. That is about another 1600 to 2000 km from Guam. I don't think I need to explain why that's a good distance away.
Orchid island is 765 km from Okinawa, 2600 km from Guam and 750 km away from where they would want to station their fleet.
I took a look at orchid island and the lanyu airport is on the west side. It actually isn't very easy to attack from north or east due to terrain. So I think it would be a lot easier to defend that air strip from cruise missiles than a flat island terrain. They will probably look to get as many construction workers, equipments and air defense units established as soon as they can.
Let's say they have a month and half until facing a 3 csg usn fleet, they do have time to setup air bases in both lanyu and penghu. Both airport should support most military aircraft including possibly MPAs and refuelling tankers. That would actually significantly improve their ability to sustain a large fleet 1800 km west of Guam since they will can sustain more land based aircraft in the event of a conflict. They can sustain hale isr drones better if they can take off from lanyu instead of somewhere on the main land.
All of this assumes they do not try a beach landing on Taiwan proper. If they try a landing, they could conceivably put an airport into usage long before they take over Taiwan. So my premise here is that in any conflict where they have a month and half before an arriving usn, it's likely they will be able to extend the reach of their land based air wing. Therefore, they may start off operating closer to mainland but then move further out as they have more land base aviation support.
