PLA Strategy in High Intensity Ground Conflicts

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
@FairAndUnbiased I'm not sure in history there has ever been a case of a non nuclear country starting a war trying to take over the core territory of a nuclear one.

I strongly doubt SK would initiate hostilities because even the current leader, who is widely considered a bootlicker, still adheres to the general South Korean public, which wishes for peaceful reunification or status quo.

If something happens its more likely that NK would initiate, since they have more vested interest in changing the status quo.

I think the most possible scenario of a war would be NK using an ongoing US invasion of China as an excuse to call in China on SK, using the US bases to justify such a move.

NK has the best chance of succeeding by moving fast. In essence, it will be a race between US army and the PLA to get as many troops as possible into the country before official hostilities. If China was already responding to an American invasion, it would mean that Chinese anti shipping platforms could cordon off South Korea, at least for a while. The number of US soldiers in Korea therefore likely can't exceed 60 000, while China is way less limited because it has a land route.

PLA mechanized units should outgun anything similar sized on the peninsula, which means together with air support, they can rapidly breach the South Korean lines, as long as they avoid cities. The North Korean army can then pour in through the gaps where the PLA punched through, siege SK cities and hold ground.

KPA artillery has excellent synergy with China's rocket force, as they can saturate SK air defenses allowing PLA long range missiles to slip through.

As for naval strategy, it is correct that China's SSNs need to immediately leave, the yellow sea favors SSKs far too much. Again here, missile strikes using saturation by the KPA first is a trump card, as the most advanced SK subs do not necessarily lag behind Chinese ones and are better than NK ones, the ability for NK's side to strike them in port whenever they return to refuel is a huge boon.

Once the Yellow Sea is cleared from bigger ships, China could try to enhance strike capability using the tons of old missile boats they have... Assuming there's even crew for them anymore nowadays. Unmanned could be an option.

Perhaps most interesting to me, although not too relevant to the topic since it veers into politics, is how Kim can actually integrate the South, given that its overall more developed. The new Korea can't be allowed to follow the same militaristic model as the North, because it would cause a collapse in life quality. Is Kim ready to be pragmatic and change? Would it even work?

Ultimately, I see Korean military reunification as not impossible, but mostly because China can brute force it. NK itself cannot even really run its own state that well, how well would it do at running 2?
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
@FairAndUnbiased I'm not sure in history there has ever been a case of a non nuclear country starting a war trying to take over the core territory of a nuclear one.

I strongly doubt SK would initiate hostilities because even the current leader, who is widely considered a bootlicker, still adheres to the general South Korean public, which wishes for peaceful reunification or status quo.

If something happens its more likely that NK would initiate, since they have more vested interest in changing the status quo.

I think the most possible scenario of a war would be NK using an ongoing US invasion of China as an excuse to call in China on SK, using the US bases to justify such a move.

NK has the best chance of succeeding by moving fast. In essence, it will be a race between US army and the PLA to get as many troops as possible into the country before official hostilities. If China was already responding to an American invasion, it would mean that Chinese anti shipping platforms could cordon off South Korea, at least for a while. The number of US soldiers in Korea therefore likely can't exceed 60 000, while China is way less limited because it has a land route.

PLA mechanized units should outgun anything similar sized on the peninsula, which means together with air support, they can rapidly breach the South Korean lines, as long as they avoid cities. The North Korean army can then pour in through the gaps where the PLA punched through, siege SK cities and hold ground.

KPA artillery has excellent synergy with China's rocket force, as they can saturate SK air defenses allowing PLA long range missiles to slip through.

As for naval strategy, it is correct that China's SSNs need to immediately leave, the yellow sea favors SSKs far too much. Again here, missile strikes using saturation by the KPA first is a trump card, as the most advanced SK subs do not necessarily lag behind Chinese ones and are better than NK ones, the ability for NK's side to strike them in port whenever they return to refuel is a huge boon.

Once the Yellow Sea is cleared from bigger ships, China could try to enhance strike capability using the tons of old missile boats they have... Assuming there's even crew for them anymore nowadays. Unmanned could be an option.

Perhaps most interesting to me, although not too relevant to the topic since it veers into politics, is how Kim can actually integrate the South, given that its overall more developed. The new Korea can't be allowed to follow the same militaristic model as the North, because it would cause a collapse in life quality. Is Kim ready to be pragmatic and change? Would it even work?

Ultimately, I see Korean military reunification as not impossible, but mostly because China can brute force it. NK itself cannot even really run its own state that well, how well would it do at running 2?
The US has operational command over ROK forces so it really isn't up to them. USFK are supposedly there as a mobile reserve and command detachment but I suspect they're also barrier troops to shoot them if they retreat or don't follow orders.

Previous case of USFK preventing South Korean retreat:

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So in reality it is South Korean conscripts being ordered to attack North Korea. They have no choice, the highest ranking South Korean general is a subordinate to the general commanding USFK.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
The US has operational command over ROK forces so it really isn't up to them. USFK are supposedly there as a mobile reserve and command detachment but I suspect they're also barrier troops to shoot them if they retreat or don't follow orders.

Previous case of USFK preventing South Korean retreat:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

So in reality it is South Korean conscripts being ordered to attack North Korea. They have no choice, the highest ranking South Korean general is a subordinate to the general commanding USFK.
There's about 30 000 USFK troops though. Even if the number surged to 60 000 before South Korea is temporarily cut off, that's not quite enough to force an offensive alone.

In contrast, China could without much difficulty move 3 group armies from the Northern command, which should be around 300 000 soldiers.

It is quite possible that US soldiers will shoot retreating SK soldiers as they did in the past, but there's little benefit in forcibly herding them into attacking the North first, when China could put up a iron defense together with NK, and then punch through demoralized SK troops.

The only option it would make sense is if US abandon the idea to invade China itself, and instead stakes it's final stand on invading North Korea instead. Then, they could buildup hugely inside SK and then engage equally in set piece battles with the PLA.

However, it's likely that the moment US buildup arouses suspicion, NK may strike preemptively, or China could force US to immediately attack before waiting for further buildup. I don't think it's feasible that US can send more than 200 000 troops for example without incurring heavy suspicion.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
There's about 30 000 USFK troops though. Even if the number surged to 60 000 before South Korea is temporarily cut off, that's not quite enough to force an offensive alone.

In contrast, China could without much difficulty move 3 group armies from the Northern command, which should be around 300 000 soldiers.

It is quite possible that US soldiers will shoot retreating SK soldiers as they did in the past, but there's little benefit in forcibly herding them into attacking the North first, when China could put up a iron defense together with NK, and then punch through demoralized SK troops.

The only option it would make sense is if US abandon the idea to invade China itself, and instead stakes it's final stand on invading North Korea instead. Then, they could buildup hugely inside SK and then engage equally in set piece battles with the PLA.

However, it's likely that the moment US buildup arouses suspicion, NK may strike preemptively, or China could force US to immediately attack before waiting for further buildup. I don't think it's feasible that US can send more than 200 000 troops for example without incurring heavy suspicion.

I really don't see either the US or South Korea looking for a war with North Korea.

It's going to cost a lot of lives and treasure.

Plus China isn't going to allow US troops to reach China's borders. That was what triggered the last Korean war. And the US knows that it can't win a land war against China. The Korean peninsula is only a short distance to mainland China by land.
 

davidau

Senior Member
Registered Member
The US has operational command over ROK forces so it really isn't up to them. USFK are supposedly there as a mobile reserve and command detachment but I suspect they're also barrier troops to shoot them if they retreat or don't follow orders.

Previous case of USFK preventing South Korean retreat:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

So in reality it is South Korean conscripts being ordered to attack North Korea. They have no choice, the highest ranking South Korean general is a subordinate to the general commanding USFK.
Serve yourself right to let that mongrel station in your country. Worse still to be subjucate to its money hungry master. Kick them out and have some dignity!
 

coolgod

Captain
Registered Member
I found these nice maps on weibo that show all the recent standoffs between China and India.
Red area is Chinese controlled, green area is India controlled and yellow area is frequently contested area.
8929f34fly1hdgz83mm4mj21yh13v1ky.jpg
8929f34fly1hdgysq468aj21yh13vx6p.jpg

Does anyone know more about the green areas in the west and middle sections? Are those areas hard for China to strategically hold? I'm just wondering why they were green even after China defeated India numerous times in the past.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I found these nice maps on weibo that show all the recent standoffs between China and India.
Red area is Chinese controlled, green area is India controlled and yellow area is frequently contested area.
View attachment 111872
View attachment 111871

Does anyone know more about the green areas in the west and middle sections? Are those areas hard for China to strategically hold? I'm just wondering why they were green even after China defeated India numerous times in the past.
the green area is indefensible.

The only route that passes through the area is G318. There is only a single small mountain road from the nearest city at Bome (波密县) to the border at Medog (墨脱镇). It takes 3 hours to drive 100 km. Bome itself is in the middle of nowhere in tough terrain 9 hr drive from Lhasa and 10 hr drive from Chamdo.

On the other side is India on flat ground which gives them poor ISR of Tibet, but better logistics.
 
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