PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Enger12 said:

Current blockade in the Strait of Hormuz is almost similar to what the US Navy could pull off during a war over Taiwan.

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A blockade is an act of war. China will keep this war outside the First Island Chain and per published doctrine and previous training will be an integrated response by the PLAN/CCG/maritime militia. One possibility is maritime militia ships inserting themselves in the operations of the USN ships, confounding planning and maneuvers. In the shadow of some MM ships would be Type 022s, peeking out occasionally to ensure the USN knew they were there.

China wouldn't fire the first shot but China would fire the last shot.

There's no similarity.

vincent said:

What bases of operations when all the fuel depots, refineries, power stations, transformer stations, ports, airports, etc are smashed?

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Did Hama have any of that? Does the lack of all those stop the Americans funnelling weapons to the Japanese to take endless pot shots at Chinese cities?

That’s all fine and dandy during active hostilities, but what is your long term exit strategy? How do you prevent a repeat of history and a new generation of Japanese growing up filled with bitter lies and unmitigated hatred for China? Do you just let them build up their military or do you preemptively strike them every once in a while? What about their nuclear ambitions? How do you stop that? See a pattern developing here?

And that’s all just surface level and doesn’t even touch upon the likely crime and piracy issues that will inevitably crop up with a failed state on your doorstep. Nor does it deal with the inevitable propaganda BS of starving babies being blamed on China.

vincent said:

Occupying the main islands means a repeat of American’s mistake in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc, an incredible drain of PLA/PAP lives and resources.

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Note I said conquest, not occupation. This will be a post-WWII level exercise in rooting out the fascist cancer in the existing society and rebuilding it from the ground up.

If you are going in clear eyed about the ultimate objective, decisions can be made at the tactical and strategic level during active combat operations to help facilitate that end goal. For example, once Japan’s long range offensive capabilities have been suitably degraded, there’s no real need for the PLA to rush to a conclusion. Just slow grind them with drones and robots as much as possible and have their own leaders genocide them by rounding them up and charging them into the teeth of overwhelming PLA firepower Ukraine style. At the same time, avoid needlessly hitting civilian infrastructure and doing periodic air drops of food and medical supplies over Japanese held populations centres to really hammer home the lesson of who the good guys really are here. Afterwards, take reconstruction and aid seriously with a heavy emphasis on reeducation.

China has the overwhelming advantage in terms of Japan because it has the economic and industrial might to allow both a proper full conquest operation as well as reconstruction. Its people are overwhelmingly just and warm, so would be either supportive or at least not vehemently opposed to a proper reconstruction and nation building. And most importantly of all, it has the advantage of geography and the literal truth on its side.

FairAndUnbiased said:

Not just that, outright defeat is possible. Note how Iran took out multiple Patriot systems, 5/20 THAAD radars ever made and a PAVE-PAWS within 1 week, blinding the US to ballistic missile trajectories in the entire Middle East. China can do that on day 1, then keep them down with air and naval power. What stops Chinese air, naval or even amphibious activity at that point?

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I don’t think outright defeat has been a question post-2015 as PLA was able to deliver the most modern weapons in volume. The only question was whether the US would be willing to commit their entire global forces and also be able to marshal all vassal states to confront the PLA.

When the US is not able to rally a coalition against Iran, marked as a pariah state since forever, what military allies can be called up against a far more formidable opponent like China?

Furthermore, the US obviously can’t leave Israel undefended with at least 2 carriers, so global forces is also out of the question.

PAVE PAWS was not even a question post 2000’s. By then the PLAN and PLAAF domestic platforms could outclass any ROCArF platform.

This doesn’t mean that AR is some kind of fait accompli, but rather that some assumptions are probably accurate.

plawolf said:

Does the lack of all those stop the Americans funnelling weapons to the Japanese to take endless pot shots at Chinese cities?

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Yes, actually. How will America get those weapons to Japan when the air and water are under Chinese control? Are they going to teleport them in?

plawolf said:

That’s all fine and dandy during active hostilities, but what is your long term exit strategy? How do you prevent a repeat of history and a new generation of Japanese growing up filled with bitter lies and unmitigated hatred for China? Do you just let them build up their military or do you preemptively strike them every once in a while? What about their nuclear ambitions? How do you stop that? See a pattern developing here?

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By bombing all of that out of them. Regime change from the air is perfectly viable for Japan. As for a Japanese nuclear weapon, as I've said before: Japan is months away from the bomb, it is 15 minutes away from annihilation.

Enger12 said:

Current blockade in the Strait of Hormuz is almost similar to what the US Navy could pull off during a war over Taiwan. China would lose about 45% of its seaborne oil and be forced to switch to Russian oil. Right now is probably a good chance to test how reliable these alternative energy routes are and how effective alternatives such as clean energy are compared to oil.

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China's dependence on fossil oil import from Middle East is far less than people think. Over the last few decades, China has steadily developed alternate energy resources like solar, wind, nuclear, hydro etc and also building pipelines to Russia, plus China itself is an oil production country.

The import of oil to China in 2025 is not an indicator of China's annual consumption because this is the year China buy and hoard oil inventory, meaning they bought more oil than their needs, and build up strategic oil reserve in case of oil crisis, like what is happening right now.

Also if Europe totally stop importing oil from Russia, these oil will go to China.

In Taiwan AR, Japan and Korean will face critical oil import problem as they do not produce oil unlike China with large domestic oil reserve and strategic oil reserve.

Here is the fact. China used less than 1 % of oil in its 2025 electricity generation. In total energy consumption oils is only 20% and could be partially replace by coal.

And electrification in inland water transport and coastal transport and land transport (mainly heavy vehicles like trucks) could be spiked if needed to be. These leave major users of oil in China to ocean transports ships and airlines.

China is the only country in the whole East Asia with the least concern to oil crisis as a result of decades of strategic planning.

lcloo said:

China's dependence on fossil oil import from Middle East is far less than people think. Over the last few decades, China has steadily developed alternate energy resources like solar, wind, nuclear, hydro etc and also building pipelines to Russia, plus China itself is an oil production country.

The import of oil to China in 2025 is not an indicator of China's annual consumption because this is the year China buy and hoard oil inventory, meaning they bought more oil than their needs, and build up strategic oil reserve in case of oil crisis, like what is happening right now.

Also if Europe totally stop importing oil from Russia, these oil will go to China.

In Taiwan AR, Japan and Korean will face critical oil import problem as they do not produce oil unlike China with large domestic oil reserve and strategic oil reserve.

Here is the fact. China used less than 1 % of oil in its 2025 electricity generation. In total energy consumption oils is only 20% and could be partially replace by coal.

And electrification in inland water transport and coastal transport and land transport (mainly heavy vehicles like trucks) could be spiked if needed to be. These leave major users of oil in China to ocean transports ships and airlines.

China is the only country in the whole East Asia with the least concern to oil crisis as a result of decades of strategic planning.

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Though not a short term nor ideal long term solution, China has the largest technically extractable shale oil reserves and third largest technically extractable shale oil reserves in the world. Not ideal due to environmental reasons and water stress, but these do exist as options of last resort.

People have to keep in mind that fuel is not the only purpose for petroleum. There is a reason that petrochemical is a thing you know. Asphalt, plastic, fertilizer, etc. all have dependency on petroleum.

siegecrossbow said:

People have to keep in mind that fuel is not the only purpose for petroleum. There is a reason that petrochemical is a thing you know. Asphalt, plastic, fertilizer, etc. all have dependency on petroleum.

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Something like 1 barrel of oil makes about 6 car tires and China made 34 million cars last year. Before considering tires maintenance for cars that aren’t new, vehicles with larger tires, and aircraft with massive tires, etc.

siegecrossbow said:

People have to keep in mind that fuel is not the only purpose for petroleum. There is a reason that petrochemical is a thing you know. Asphalt, plastic, fertilizer, etc. all have dependency on petroleum.

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China's fertilizers are all made from coal. 40% plastic are made from coal. Asphalt can made from coal.

lcloo said:

And electrification in inland water transport and coastal transport and land transport (mainly heavy vehicles like trucks) could be spiked if needed to be. These leave major users of oil in China to ocean transports ships and airlines.

China is the only country in the whole East Asia with the least concern to oil crisis as a result of decades of strategic planning.

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Isn't China also on the forefront of SAF (sustainable aircraft fuel)? Didn't they fill up a whole flight with that a year or two ago? Now that I think about it, are there any such reasearch into sustainable marrine fuel?