Why?
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
At this stage it's unlikely that the PLA strategy for a Taiwan contingency involves an immediate "bum-rush" amphibious invasion straight off the bat. That's not because they inherently lack the capability to carry it out in a Taiwan specific manner, but rather that the risk is actively carrying out an amphibious invasion early on means commitment of substantial forces which gives the US the initiative to interdict and get involved if they choose -- after all, even if the PLA achieves a "victory" over Taiwan island itself in a short span of time (say, half a week), there is nothing stopping the US from launching a counter-attack against PLA forces and the cross-strait logistics pipeline supplying PRC forces in Taiwan.
As written by Patch and others, it is more likely that the PLA will carry out a few weeks of a bombardment/isolation campaign against Taiwan while using diplomacy to get the US to stand down (or if that fails, the US and PRC will engage in active conflict while Taiwan as an island is largely isolated and has their conventional air, naval and IADS forces dismantled).
A Taiwan amphibious invasion is likely to only occur once the PRC is satisfied that the US either has no material interest/will to intervene in the PLA's operation, or that the US has no material capability to intervene even if they wanted to.
Or American military is defeated.
Incorrect, the best weapon to hunt submarines in the shallow waters inside the first island chain is underwater sensor networks which China has setup plenty.
Second best weapon is helicopters which has dipping sonars.
Planes can only rely on consumable sunobuoys which is not that cost effective.
Philippines tried to maneuver in a same manner before WW2. Overall, given the way US presense expands there, it's a basic assumption that they will.
Ah, absolutely. I just meant that periodical updates to holed bridges and landing strips are absolutely a form of suppression.
With cheaper and more affordable "dumber" 370mm weapons it's a rather reasonable use of effectors.
Especially if those are of older stocks, and their accuracy in 2020s EW climate can be compromised.
750mm weapons in most cases are already killers, though - using them for indirect effects is probably rather wasteful.
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That is what I euphemistically implied by writing "no material capability to intervene even if they wanted to".
No need to spell it out so explicitly to start any arguments.
Before World War II, the Philippines was occupied by the United States and reduced to a colonial possession, vastly different from the Philippines of today. If the Philippines insists on providing the United States with a war theater, it would have to place its mountainous secret passages near Taiwan, air-raid shelters, ports, urban expressways, streets, and subways under American control—effectively transforming itself into a semi-colony.
Philippines were getting independence riiight before 12.1941.
This was one of the reasons how they managed to get it in a worst way possible - american actions and reinforcement of Philippines assured japanese, that under all circumstances country must be neutralized(occupied), because it will provide every possible assistance to US in case of war, and US won't be asking anyway.
Which they didn't, since september 1941 all doubts were thrown away, and US plan was, again, to save Philippines in case of war (i.e., despite of what some people say, w/o Pearl Harbor americans would've rushed battlefleet there after all). Newly elected(november 11) Quezon specifically approved this. At the same time, Quezon opened negotiations with Japanese and tried to keep his country neutral and away from incoming storm.
McArthur - acting in his typical fashion very much on his own, and driven by local friendly relationship and possibly quite geniune attempt to give Philippines a chance(meaning, sticking it to Washington), - tried to give breathing space to Quezon, and because of that fortification/reinforcement of Philippines was seriously sabotaged throughout 1941, up till the last moment - even in the morning of dec.7 1941 there is very serious suspicion that this was the true reason why McArthur hesitated to send in his bomber force, and not cartoon villain stories. He was quite close to being a cartoon villain, but not in this particular way.
But sent he did, and these hundreds of aircraft were there in the first place.
At the same time, in november 1941 and under absolute secrecy, US navy prepared some schooners with Philippino crews(quite happy to be enlisted in US navy...without knowing just what for) to send them in path of Japanese troop convoys, to get them conveniently sunk and get a solid casus belli. In a true colonial fashion, there were no americans on these prepared boats. Not like, as we know, Japanese needed any invitation to invade, but still, it's a rather ugly page of history.
I.e. everyone in this story negotiated in absolute bad faith (Roosvelt&chiefs of staff, McArthur, Japanese, Quezon), but Philippines had a say - and their say was half-assed agreement with being US base. Just without taking responsibility for that.
All of this, of course, is pure history. If it remind you of something - well, conclusions are yours.
I don't think this time around will be quite so complicated.
From what I can tell, the current government in Manila is extremely Ameriphilic. It is perfectly plausible that they will attempt some version of "salami-slicing" aid to US forces that'll get them bombed by Chinese forces.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
You're aware that it's not mandatory to put a nuclear warhead on a missile just because it can deliver a nuclear warhead, right? I don't think you are.
Going straight to nuke says a country is desperate and knows it cannot win conventionally and has little faith in the survival of the country so MAD makes sense.
I hope you stay advising your own country instead of giving shit advice to China. Doesn't take any balls at all to ask other people to go to war. Do it yourself.
If WWIII starts, the US will be so busy and overwhelmed with China, they will have absolutely no spare effort to deal with any desertions from vassals.
They're so fked they've taken 20% of Ukraine and are taking more and have an economy that outperforms the EU's. Super fked...
Yeah, there's also this saying, albeit, not quite as ancient: four 90lb crips can't fight Mike Tyson. America spends resources making useless improvements to weak vassals because they're too scared to fight China themselves while China puts its resources at the blade of its sword significantly improving its own combat capability every year.
I dunno about that. Filipinos are basically close to the stupidest people I've ever met, certainly the stupidest Asians by far. AND they're religious so they believe in random miracles. There's literally Filipino hordes on Facebook wearing 8th generation donated clothes with holes all over them sitting in jungle huts eating Pagpag using 15 year old cellphones worth $8-12 shipped on eBay posting about how China's a nation of idiots that can't invent technology or make anything high quality. Filipinos actually got recruited to go fight for Ukraine without even considering what Nazis likely have planned for 158cm brown jungle Asians. They tell people to boycott China and only buy Filipino-made and when asked what they make, they're like... bananas... coconuts................... crocodiles? LMFAO I wouldn't put any miscalculation past them.
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