PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

ACuriousPLAFan said:

The PLA really does need to significantly buff up its presence and strength in the eastern sector of China's Dongbei. That is, China couldn't rely/depend on Russia and North Korea for guarding and defending the Dongbei's eastern frontier - The former's air force doesn't exactly has brilliant performances in Ukraine over the past 3+ years, whereas the latter's air force is basically a pile of Cold War relics.

Enemy airborne and seaborne forces could easily launch standoff missile attacks over the Sea of Japan with impunity against key targets in Dongbei through the North Korean and Russian airspaces - And the PLAAF must be able to counter such threats by having consistent presence over the Sea of Japan.

It'd be great if China and Russia can work together towards establishing a NORAD-equivalent that covers the eastern sector of the Chinese Dongbei and the Russian Far East districts, alongside aerial corridors where PLA warplanes can easily traverse between the Dongbei and the Sea of Japan.

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I'd imagine it's rather politically complicated. Beefing up force postures in this area would inevitably raise suspicion in Russia and NK, even if the intention is made clear.

You also need long term certainty to make such expansion a worthy investment as the payoff requires transiting Russian/NK airspace. Ideally the PLA would not just be limited to defending the area, but would also take the initiative and actively conduct operations over the Sea of Japan, or even Japan itself during wartime, especially in a way that would force Japan to redirect its forces away from Ryukyu. How would these operations complicate Japan–Russia relations? Such an expansion would also be substantial and would essentially dominate the region with regard to Russia and NK, especially with six gens and the H-20 factored in.

Then there are questions about whether the PLAN will participate in the Sea of Japan and whether this would involve Haishenwai (would the Tsushima Strait be considered untraversable during the conflict). Unlike in the Ukraine war where China's direct involvement is difficult, Russia would be much more likely to be directly dragged into this conflict.

So in some sense, the Ukraine War has done us a factor. But please Wang Yi and Zhang Youxia, keep those 战略互信 Strategic Mutual Trust coming.

No more Singapore discussion, derailing, off-topic, keep the conversation on track.

P.S., His posting history and posting style suggests he is a Vietnamese who is obsessed with SCS, so definitely not from Singapore. Don't feed the troll...

ACuriousPLAFan said:

For reference - There are only about three PLAAF bases which directly faces the Sea of Japan at the eastern sector of Dongbei, with two of the closest ones (Yanji and Mudanjiang) only fielding J-10s at best and not featuring any hardened aircraft shelters. The one which is recently expanded + upgraded and fielding J-16s (Qiqihar) are about 1000 kilometers deeper inland.

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The PLA really does need to significantly buff up its presence and strength in the eastern sector of China's Dongbei. That is, China couldn't rely/depend on Russia and North Korea for guarding and defending the Dongbei's eastern frontier - The former's air force doesn't exactly has brilliant performances in Ukraine over the past 3+ years, whereas the latter's air force is basically a pile of Cold War relics.

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If attacks are being conducted through Russian airspace, that would be an act of war.
Given how the US refrains from attacking a nuclear-armed Russia due to Ukraine, I don't see the US doing this.

But let's say this does happen. Well, now the US is at war with Russia, in addition to China. It means:

1. Russian airspace is now open for use by China. So Chinese aircraft can cross the Vladivostok area and reach Japan. All of the Japanese Home Islands are now within 1300km, which can be reached by:

a) Heavyweight fighter jets like the J-20 or Flankers
b) High-end subsonic cruise missiles in the Tomahawk/JASSM-class
c) Very low cost piston-engine cruise missiles in the Shaheed-class

2. Russian airbases are presumably also now available, with Chinese forces based on Sakhalin island which is just 50km from Hokkaido. Chinese air-superiority over Northern Japan is now likely. After Taiwan is done, a Chinese invasion of Hokkaido would be feasible.

3. China would likely redirect all dual-use exports towards Chinese or Russian use. Remember where most of the world's drone components come from.

Yes, the Russian Air Force is lacking, but the Chinese Air Force can more than make up for this.

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Let's take the scenario where China is attacked by the US through North Korean airspace.
Now the US is at war with North Korea, in addition to China.

1. It means North Korean airspace is open to Chinese aircraft, and again, all of the Japanese Home Islands are within 1300km like in the previous scenario.

2. Both China and North Korea have the option of restarting the Korean civil war, which would drag the US Army into an unwinnable land war against the Chinese Army, where China has a decisive advantage.