PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
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wrong again
The goals of China military, the PLA.
1-To, as many militaries do, defend the country against foreign adversaries and make sure that if you bring war to them they will bring war to you, no matter where you are.
2- To defend the country territorial integrity by whatever means necessary.
3- To use overwhelming force to make sure that the country is never forced to sign any unfair treaty.
4- To defend the government, the SeeSeePee as you say.
Any one who understand modern China military history since WW2 understand this.
The have red lines, they have crystal clear red lines, as Douglas Mc Arthur, the general who defeated Japan, find out when he crossed the Yalu river despite of being warned that was a crystal red line for China, he was met by an army that he underestimated. Taiwan independence is a crystal territorial integrity red line for China. And would probably be met with overwhelming force.
China would rather see that island and their brothers there to prosper and it semiconductor industry to be world class. But is red line.
I understand is difficult to current Japan right wingers and extremists to understand, they live blindsided in a defeated past and finding ways to screw normal average Japanese people well being. Is like John Bolton trying to understand why he is an idiot and why his policies would bring disaster for the US. Is impossible, he is too far gone.
Say, if he gets banned, do you reckon he'll snipe at us from an SCMP column?
Taiwan becoming a hardcore hotbed of insurgency is a common western fanfic. It is a commonly known that the Republic of China military itself leans towards reunification.
Another common western fanfic. The PLA are SS-style thugs just waiting to beat up CCP's opposition. Anytime you hear "crush/put down internal dissent" you know the type of person writing it.
Ironically it is the USA that is currently using the National Guard and ICE to act as SS/SA to put down internal dissent.
It's also neglecting the fact that the term "China military buildup" is simply propaganda. If we look back into the 90's, Japan had a huge build up, Kongo-class AEGIS DDG, Mitsubishi F-2 (complementing the Mitsubishi built F-15J from the 80's), new Type 90 Tank, etc. This was seen as the immediate threat even without counting America's own direct forces. Is China supposed to continue flying J-7 just to not scare Japan?
Not sure where to put this, interesting discussion from X..
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Stooges like that guy there are underestimating the seriousness of the situation, the are underestimating the long time commitment and the damage that China can cause if is pushed towards war. And there is not deterrent or any of that crap here. China is just increasing the military capabilities as a faster pace. No T-Dome or weapons in islands so small that can be wipeout in a single small saturation attack is going to "deter" China if these clowns push the region towards the edge of war with their stupidity.
See, this people don't care about the Taiwan or its people. they only about agendas and They just care to mess with China and if Taiwan gets destroyed in the process is just a sacrifice.
It's not just a CCP narrative.
1. Lee Kuan Yew looked at this for many years, and came to the same conclusion. The logic was that China was 80% likely to succeed and become a high-tech, high-income country. We can already see that China roughly matches the US in terms of technology, and that China is pulling ahead and also closing the gaps where it is behind.
With China having a population 4x larger than the USA, a high-income China (in the coming decades) would imply an economy some 4x larger, with all this entails in terms of political and military influence. That translates into overwhelmingly dominance in the Western Pacific, if not globally.
And Lee Kuan Yew was clear that Singapore would have to adjust to such a world.
2. And let's say China becomes a multi-party democracy. An independent Taiwan would be a challenge to the Mandate of Heaven. So a democratic China (whatever party is in charge) will still seek to absorb Taiwan.
In addition, an independent Taiwan will still act as a military containment cork, which is useful for the US.
So from a realpolitik perspective, strategists in a democratic China will still advocate for the absorption of Taiwan. But of course, there can be a lot of flexibility as to what this entails.
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That is not correct.
There is a reason that the PAP exists. They were previously the internal security units of the PLA.
The whole point of this separation was so that:
1. The PAP has its primary mission as internal security, with a secondary military mission
2. The PLA has its the primary mission as military, with a secondary internal security mission
This division is supported more recently by primary sources asserting that Xi Jinping is laser focused on:
a) The 2027 target to have the capability to invade and conquer Taiwan
b) ruthless decision making based on what he believes is in China's national interest
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"A person with enormous emotional stability who does not allow his personal misfortunes or sufferings affect his judgment. In other words, he is impressive". - Lee Kuan Yew
“I’ve never encountered anyone as cold blooded in their calculations of national or personal interest as Xi Jinping,” said Ryan Hass, former China director with the National Security Council during the administration of US President Joe Biden.
Taiwan is an island, and can be successfully cut off from outside resupply.
During a blockade, I expect China would be happy to flood Taiwan with ships carrying food aid, and do this very publicly. It's not like they're is trying to exterminate or genocide the Taiwanese, like we see with the Palestinians in Gaza. As far as I'm aware, Xi Jinping's sister (and presumably her family) are also still living in Taiwan.
As for an occupation, the counterinsurgency troop ratio implies a minimum of 500K troops. China does have enough PAP and PLA personnel for at least double this level. But this assumes a full-scale counterinsurgency, which is unlikely given that:
1. Taiwan is cutoff from external resupply
2. About 10% of the Taiwanese population is in favour of reunification
3. One of the two major political parties is reconciled to the idea, if it has to happen
4. It will likely be a very light touch model similar to Hong Kong
5. Modern societies (which includes Taiwan) are inherently surveillance societies
This is just a Taiwan land conflict.
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In a wider Air and Naval conflict, it really is a war of machines rather than of people.
The most critical human factor are individual pilots in an aircraft, but as the USAF Academy notes, Chinese pilots receive twice as many flight hours as American pilots these days.
In many cases in the Air Force and Navy, the only difference between peacetime and wartime is literally a button press.
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Prior to Patchwork's departure, he noted that Chinese battle networking capability was significantly better than the US military network, and wouldn't catchup until JADC2
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