PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

"I'm sure the PLA has a very detailed strategy for Taiwan contingencies, but what would the execution look like? I'm not convinced that the CCP feels that it's leadership is up to the job."

Easy, let TW or Japan fire the first shot and find out if President Xi is a competent leader or not.

Nevermore said:

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According to a December 3 report by Taiwan's China Times News Network, South Korea's electronic entry card declaration system labels Taiwan as "China (Taiwan)." Taiwan's foreign affairs department responded on the 3rd, stating that its so-called "Representative Office in South Korea" has raised serious concerns and lodged representations, but has yet to receive a positive response from the South Korean side.
According to reports, Taiwan's foreign affairs department stated that in South Korea's electronic entry card system, the fields for "Place of Departure" and "Next Destination" label Taiwan as "China (Taiwan)."
The Taiwan authorities' foreign affairs department and the so-called "Representative Office in the Republic of Korea" have repeatedly raised serious concerns and lodged representations with the South Korean government regarding this matter, demanding prompt rectification. However, the South Korean government has yet to provide a substantive response.
On November 27, at the regular press conference of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, spokesperson Chen Binhua stated that Taiwan is China's Taiwan, has never been a country, and will never become one. The status quo across the Taiwan Strait is that there is only one China in the world, with both the mainland and Taiwan belonging to one China. This has not changed and must not change.
Source | Reference News

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Isn't the answer simple in all these cases? "We're going by your constitution, which says you're a part of China. You need to officially declare yourself a nation before the question of whether to accept you as a nation even hits our desk. You're asking if we side with the PRC or with you, but officially, there is no argument because you both officially agree you're a part of China."

Another big challlenge for the PLA is that it's primary mission is keeping the CCP in power - not foreign conquest. Despite the big parades and all the nice kit we see on this excellent forum, the PLA is optimised to be loyal to the CCP, with combat as a secondary consideration. And regarding Taiwan, even assuming the PLA can, in a contengincy, invade it, what happens later? The CCP would be looking at a big insurgency because the majority of Taiwanese won't relish CCP rule. Yes, China has tons of good hardware, but does Xi trust his PLA guys to get the job done? Sure, he'll trust them to put down internal dissent. But can they be effective in a dynamic combat environment where somebody is shooting back? He certainly seems to doubt it!

KFX said:

Another big challlenge for the PLA is that it's primary mission is keeping the CCP in power - not foreign conquest. Despite the big parades and all the nice kit we see on this excellent forum, the PLA is optimised to be loyal to the CCP, with combat as a secondary consideration. And regarding Taiwan, even assuming the PLA can, in a contengincy, invade it, what happens later? The CCP would be looking at a big insurgency because the majority of Taiwanese won't relish CCP rule. Yes, China has tons of good hardware, but does Xi trust his PLA guys to get the job done? Sure, he'll trust them to put down internal dissent. But can they be effective in a dynamic combat environment where somebody is shooting back? He certainly seems to doubt it!

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The modern PLA was built to push the US out of the WestPac region and secure Taiwan. If you don’t know this you should probably spend a lot more time reading the massive repository of information on the PLA in this forum and less time posting imaginary political head fiction.

KFX said:

Another big challlenge for the PLA is that it's primary mission is keeping the CCP in power - not foreign conquest.

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It's no challenge as long as Taiwan is reigned in and that's no foreign conquest. It's not like anyone's considering a different government for China.

KFX said:

Despite the big parades and all the nice kit we see on this excellent forum, the PLA is optimised to be loyal to the CCP, with combat as a secondary consideration.

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Those are not first and second; they are the core tenants and purpose. They coexist and boost each other. Honor and valor.

KFX said:

And regarding Taiwan, even assuming the PLA can, in a contengincy, invade it, what happens later? The CCP would be looking at a big insurgency because the majority of Taiwanese won't relish CCP rule.

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Insurgency? LOLOL Have you seen these people? They are funny, non-militaristic people. Also, mainlanders would be flooding the island to get it under control and we'd have Gymbosses everywhere (Gymboss is a converted ex-TW independence advocate who is now pro-unification).

KFX said:

Yes, China has tons of good hardware, but does Xi trust his PLA guys to get the job done? Sure, he'll trust them to put down internal dissent. But can they be effective in a dynamic combat environment where somebody is shooting back? He certainly seems to doubt it!

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Ohhhh ok we're gonna be funny with the stupid questions game? I gotcha, Colon.

"Yes, the West has a large military industrial complex but would they ever get into a fight with a real peer? Even if they're attacked? The Euros look pretty cowardly to me, don't you think? Would these Western leaders really trust their soldiers used to fighting goat farmers in the desert to take on a modern military force? Sure, they can be sent as clown instructors into Ukraine with all ID removed so when they die, they can be disregarded as lone mercenaries but against a country that has beaten the US out of Korea and Vietnam when it wasn't even considered a modern force, would these people ever be trusted to fight against a modern China that can glass nations over with nukes and pierce all air defense with a generational advantage in fighter tech? The West certainly looks very weary and reluctant, huh?"

latenlazy said:

The modern PLA was built to push the US out of the WestPac region and secure Taiwan. If you don’t know this you should probably spend a lot more time reading the massive repository of information on the PLA in this forum and less time posting imaginary political head fiction.

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Wait... Isn't he the exact same guy (from Vietnam or the Philippines) who's gonna "celebrating" like how he's going to laugh at the evil China/SeeSeePee once getting a$$ handed over in the SCS thread just because of that CCG cutter collision with a PLAN DDG?

KFX said:

Another big challlenge for the PLA is that it's primary mission is keeping the CCP in power - not foreign conquest. Despite the big parades and all the nice kit we see on this excellent forum, the PLA is optimised to be loyal to the CCP, with combat as a secondary consideration. And regarding Taiwan, even assuming the PLA can, in a contengincy, invade it, what happens later? The CCP would be looking at a big insurgency because the majority of Taiwanese won't relish CCP rule. Yes, China has tons of good hardware, but does Xi trust his PLA guys to get the job done? Sure, he'll trust them to put down internal dissent. But can they be effective in a dynamic combat environment where somebody is shooting back? He certainly seems to doubt it!

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Why do Westerner worshippers like yourself always assume China faces the exact same problems as the West?

KFX said:

The inevitability of Taiwan becoming part of the mainland is definitely a CCP narrative. As for strategy, one wonders about the top ranks of the PLA given Xi's corruption purges. How will this affect leadership and decision making if push comes to shove around Taiwan? PLA is working with decision command to speed up tactical leadership, but in a war will Beijing really allow this style of leadership? I'm sure the PLA has a very detailed strategy for Taiwan contingencies, but what would the execution look like? I'm not convinced that the CCP feels that it's leadership is up to the job.

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The foremost purpose of recent, well publicized 'purges' of PLA officers was to ensure Chinese military leaders are focused on accomplishing their assigned missions rather than enriching themselves and their friends.

This was moreover an extremely public exercise in institutional trust building, not only to satiate the political class, but more importantly to communicate to enlisted soldiers, NCOs and company grade officers that accountability isn't only universal, but starts at the very top. You ought to know what the value of that is to morale and discipline.

Since you're a "professional analyst" — in lieu of reading tea leaves — may I suggest that you quantify and analyze the frequency, scale, complexity and assertiveness of recent PLAN deployments and PLAAF operations — especially vis-a-vis what were typical 3 or 5 years ago — to assess both perceived and actual PLA readiness for a Taiwan contingency or whatever other scenarios you fantasize about?

Perhaps you can even convince your JMSDF friends to summarize their internal assessments on whether the PSC and CMC are confident enough to let the PLAN "come out and play."

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KFX said:

Another big challlenge for the PLA is that it's primary mission is keeping the CCP in power - not foreign conquest. Despite the big parades and all the nice kit we see on this excellent forum, the PLA is optimised to be loyal to the CCP, with combat as a secondary consideration. And regarding Taiwan, even assuming the PLA can, in a contengincy, invade it, what happens later? The CCP would be looking at a big insurgency because the majority of Taiwanese won't relish CCP rule. Yes, China has tons of good hardware, but does Xi trust his PLA guys to get the job done? Sure, he'll trust them to put down internal dissent. But can they be effective in a dynamic combat environment where somebody is shooting back? He certainly seems to doubt it!

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You're obviously trolling, but let's feed you just for the "shit and giggles."

The population of Taiwan is not only highly secular by any reasonable standard, but something like ~85% urban.

When was the last time a demographic like that prevailed in an insurgency, especially on an island that can be blockaded?

KFX said:

Another big challlenge for the PLA is that it's primary mission is keeping the CCP in power - not foreign conquest. Despite the big parades and all the nice kit we see on this excellent forum, the PLA is optimised to be loyal to the CCP, with combat as a secondary consideration. And regarding Taiwan, even assuming the PLA can, in a contengincy, invade it, what happens later? The CCP would be looking at a big insurgency because the majority of Taiwanese won't relish CCP rule. Yes, China has tons of good hardware, but does Xi trust his PLA guys to get the job done? Sure, he'll trust them to put down internal dissent. But can they be effective in a dynamic combat environment where somebody is shooting back? He certainly seems to doubt it!

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Just a word of advice for US's vassal states in Asia such as Japan and Korea. Instead of indulging in whatever fiction in their heads they should really have a sober re-thinking of their position in this era. US is regressing to Monroe doctrine 2.0 yet their minions doesn't seem to get the memo yet. Can you imagine what happens when those vassal states act stupidly like Ukraine and US forces stay on the other side of the pacific?

For your own good you should start to think with your brain a little, free advice take it or leave it.

enroger said:

Just a word of advice for US's vassal states in Asia such as Japan and Korea. Instead of indulging in whatever fiction in their heads they should really have a sober re-thinking of their position in this era. US is regressing to Monroe doctrine 2.0 yet their minions doesn't seem to get the memo yet. Can you imagine what happens when those vassal states act stupidly like Ukraine and US forces stay on the other side of the pacific?

For your own good you should start to think with your brain a little, free advice take it or leave it.

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None of them have decent brains. That's why they're in such a position in the first place.