PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

4Tran said:

When the Marines propose an idea for engaging in the Western Pacific, it's important to note that they're not doing so to benefit the overall American strategy in the region. They're trying to see what will benefit the Marines. Everyone is well aware that any conflict in the Western Pacific is going to be a naval and aerial affair. Ground troops aren't really going to be be involved and this means that the Marines (and the US Army) don't really have a job. This is them trying to insert themselves into the operation so that they're still relevant.

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00CuriousObserver said:

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How Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 Taiwan Trip Helped Japan Decide to Rearm

What was widely expected at the time from Pelosi’s visit — the first in a quarter century by one of the most powerful of US political officials — was a sharp reaction in Beijing, where the Communist leadership claims the island as part of its territory. And, indeed, China massively ramped up military exercises around Taiwan, including repeated crossings of a US-defined median line in the Taiwan Strait.

But when it subsequently launched ballistic missiles over Taiwan and into the exclusive economic zone of neighboring Japan, that set off a chain reaction. Hirohito Ogi, a former Japanese Defense Ministry official, said “that was a kind of wake-up call for ordinary Japanese citizens.” By the end of that year, he said, the Japanese public was solidly behind a major revamp of national security strategy.

Now at the Institute of Geoeconomics in Tokyo, Ogi explained in an interview earlier this month that the August 2022 incident had a powerful effect on Japan’s lawmakers and public at large. Whereas opposition party members previously were robust in their rejection of increased defense spending, by late 2022, debate had shifted to how to pay for it, not whether to proceed.

Fast forward to today, and Japan’s defense industry is one of the most dynamic parts of Asia’s second-biggest economy. The broad realization of Taiwan’s role in Japan’s security landscape, which the Pelosi trip and its aftermath prompted, also laid some of the groundwork for the latest confrontation that’s erupted between Tokyo and Beijing — this time over Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s public indication of military support for Taipei.

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