PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

bsdnf

Junior Member
Registered Member
Tien Kung 4 turned out to be a high-explosive fragmentation warhead, ABM capability is rather mediocre. Basically, considering the relationship between Taiwan, Israel and the United States, the local version of the Arrow-2

This system possesses virtually no intercept capability against the vast number of hypersonic missiles deployed by the PLA.

It can only intercept very outdated variants like the DF-11 and early DF-15 models, as well as the Army's tactical missiles. However, it would clearly struggle to survive long enough to intercept these missiles.

Or, as Shilao put it: TRASH MISSILE
View attachment 160864View attachment 160865
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Yep, I was right, Israel was involved
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
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ROC's ratio of actual strength to authorized strength continues to fall, approaching 75% this year. Previously the trend was:
2020 - 88.57%
2021 - 87.57%
2022 - 82%
2023 - 80%
2024- 78%

Taiwan's goal was 80% while US aims for 85% (and US considers anything less than 85% to have degraded combat effectiveness). See table above for detailed break down by type. Note enlisted soldier ratio is as low as 41% for air defence troops and 55% for seamen.

Overall ROCAF aviation is the highest at 82% while ROCA armour units are lowest at 69%.

Table columns from left to right: officers, NCO, enlisted men, overall average
Table rows from top to bottom:
army - mechanized infantry, artillery, armour, special forces, Huadong Defence Command, outlying islands
navy - fleet, marine
air force - aviation, air defence

Mechanized infantry and armour units having less than 80% on paper strength even among the officer corp is crazy.
 
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Wrought

Senior Member
Registered Member
Throwback Thursday, remember Pelosi?

Beijing could announce live-fire exercises around Taiwan, similar to those which followed former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s protocol-shredding visit in 2022. That visit was “a godsend to us,” says the senior PLA officer, allowing China to rip up decades of established engagement protocol. “From then, there was no median line, no status quo.”

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plawolf

Lieutenant General
Pelosi was a godsend in hindsight.

Obliterated the median line and all those pesky tacit agreements around it.

Calling that wicked witch of the west a godsend could be considered blasphemy if one was religiously inclined.

I think it’s doing China a massive disservice to credit her too much.

She tried to deal China a shit hand at the end of her term and career as a poison pill parting gift. It was only due to Chinese hard power and strategic brilliance that they were able to flip that play and turn shit into gold.

Too often commentators like to attribute to luck, fortune and fate things there were only possible due to dedication, hard work and brilliant strategy on China’s part. Often they do that precisely to underplay and dismiss Chinese accomplishments and capabilities.
 

burritocannon

Junior Member
Registered Member
wouldnt it be more to china's advantage to conceal, or at least moderate, any intent towards the forceful reunification of taiwan? why favor display over ambiguity?
 

bsdnf

Junior Member
Registered Member
wouldnt it be more to china's advantage to conceal, or at least moderate, any intent towards the forceful reunification of taiwan? why favor display over ambiguity?
Internal PR pressure, the Pelosi incident has led many to accuse the PLA and the government of being soft (as always) and unresponsive.

Furthermore, if the top leadership chooses not to publicly address the issue, government departments won't truly prioritize it. Don't view the Chinese government as a gestalt, where internal conspiracies can be silently orchestrated through pheromones.
 
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