PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
RoastGooseHKer said:
But this does not resolve the dilemma between spending more on guns versus butter after 2035. China's aging population issues will force the government to spend more on universal eldercare. And that means less resources for the PLA (except veterans and MOD retirees).
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You can't make definitive statements like that. How much a government spends on a particular category is dependent on politics. Nothing is stopping the govt to spend less on elder care if they want to. The elderly will just depend more on their own savings or their children.

China spends the least amount on the military right now. Less 1.2% of GDP officially. Technically China is the one that is following the pacifist constitution rather than Japan.

China spends the most on infrastracture, poverty reduction, education and so on. It spends on things that will boost China's economic potential, which in turn leads to higher GDP growth.

As China gets richer, its geopolitical ambitions will rise which means it will spend more on the military, not less. Right now, its in keep your head down, hide and bide, just focus on economy mode. As it gets richer, there is less incentive to keep silent. There will be more ambition to push for more influence and more power.
 
BasilicaLew

BasilicaLew

Junior Member
Registered Member
RoastGooseHKer said:
But this does not resolve the dilemma between spending more on guns versus butter after 2035. China's aging population issues will force the government to spend more on universal eldercare. And that means less resources for the PLA (except veterans and MOD retirees).
Click to expand...
The PLA can still downsize quite a bit more, PLA needs less troops because its more efficient. For the US troop numbers I mean having bases all around the world only worsens that trend. And also some positions in logistics may become automated over time.
 
Sinnavuuty

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
Puss in Boots said:
2027 also marks the centennial of the founding of the Chinese People's Liberation Army. I wonder if this is a coincidence.
I agree that 2027 should be the year when the gap in military power between China and the United States is at its smallest. After all, the gap will only widen, and the United States has no ability to reverse this trend.
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On the issue of dates (2027, 2035 and 2049), a good article that covers everything discussed here:
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Nevermore

Nevermore

Junior Member
Registered Member
RoastGooseHKer said:
But this does not resolve the dilemma between spending more on guns versus butter after 2035. China's aging population issues will force the government to spend more on universal eldercare. And that means less resources for the PLA (except veterans and MOD retirees).
Click to expand...
China's current military spending is extremely low. With just a modest increase in the future, it could maintain the world's strongest military power within its theater of operations. Surely you don't think it's a huge strain for the PLA to sustain its current level of military strength?
 
P

Puss in Boots

New Member
Registered Member
Sinnavuuty said:
On the issue of dates (2027, 2035 and 2049), a good article that covers everything discussed here:
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I'm more inclined to believe the timing is simply a coincidence. China's requirements for military development are designed to meet the needs of its economic development.
The report, as always, is rife with bias, making it impossible to accurately predict China's military development path.
The report focuses on Taiwan and the South China Sea to demonstrate China's military development goals, clearly underestimating China's ambitions! This report was released last year; a re-release of an assessment of China's military development this year would be significantly different.
Discussing China's military development cannot be separated from China's economic development. I can't find any discussion of economic development in this report.
These timelines are still American fantasies. The CPC doesn't set a clear timeline for itself because it doesn't need to curry favor with the public by promoting a vision of the future. This is completely different from Western politics.
 
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