PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

votran

Junior Member
Registered Member
will japan actually have the balls to join US and directly attack chinese military before china attack japan soil (US base on japan) ?

and if japan some how refuse to help US , can US and the west actually have ability to regime change japan ? to fix the problem ?
 

4Tran

Junior Member
Registered Member
will japan actually have the balls to join US and directly attack chinese military before china attack japan soil (US base on japan) ?

and if japan some how refuse to help US , can US and the west actually have ability to regime change japan ? to fix the problem ?
No. Japan can talk up a good game but they're very unliky to fight, especially since no core interest is being threatened. Ivtervening and losing is beyond a disaster and intervening and winning is almost as bad. And as even the Americans are signalling that they don't want this fight, why would the Japanese?
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
No. Japan can talk up a good game but they're very unliky to fight, especially since no core interest is being threatened. Ivtervening and losing is beyond a disaster and intervening and winning is almost as bad. And as even the Americans are signalling that they don't want this fight, why would the Japanese?
Japanese politicians and think tanks have been saying “台湾有事は日本有事” (Taiwan issue is Japanese issue) for years already.

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4Tran

Junior Member
Registered Member
Japanese politicians and think tanks have been saying “台湾有事は日本有事” (Taiwan issue is Japanese issue) for years already.

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There's always been a lot of talk like that but I doubt there's much actual appetite for war. Also, Japan is completely unready for war and I think the Japanese leadership is well aware of this.
 

votran

Junior Member
Registered Member
No. Japan can talk up a good game but they're very unliky to fight, especially since no core interest is being threatened. Ivtervening and losing is beyond a disaster and intervening and winning is almost as bad. And as even the Americans are signalling that they don't want this fight, why would the Japanese?
i worry about even in case of japanese gov refuse to help US , US and the west still have ability to silent regime change japan to fix the problem and japanese people can't do shit about it
 

4Tran

Junior Member
Registered Member
i worry about even in case of japanese gov refuse to help US , US and the west still have ability to silent regime change japan to fix the problem and japanese people can't do shit about it
I wouldn't worry about it. The US doesn't have much ability to affect Parliamentarian democracies like Japan to begin with. The ruling LDP us especially insular and suspicious of outside powers so it's even harder. Even if the Americans try force, the Japanese people are fiercely protective of their national prestige so it's probably only going to make them hostile.
 
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