PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
Nevermore said:
Recently, opposition forces against Taiwan's ruling party have gained momentum, largely fueled by the ridiculous and pitiful policies of Taiwanese internet celebrity “馆长” and Lai Ching-te. I'm unsure whether this trend can be sustained.
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Nah, it is also fueled by the fact that the DPP has actually been quite inept in the many years they have been the ruling party.

That the Internet celebrity 馆长 switched sides is a symptom and not actually underlying cause.

And also lots of other reasons, such as China materially actually doing quite well, and more knowledge of that is spread in Taiwan (more traditional knowledge/impression they have is that China is backwards, which is very out of date).
 
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tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
leonzzzz said:
Guys the Rafale turkey shoot competition might not be over, if Macron (or any frenchman later) has the balls to send more to feed PL15 and PL16s.
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China should comprehensively sanction France if they dare to sell weapons to Taiwan. Make them an an example. Otherwise, other western countries will feel emboldened to sell to Taiwan as well.
 
GZDRefugee

GZDRefugee

Junior Member
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
China should comprehensively sanction France if they dare to sell weapons to Taiwan. Make them an an example. Otherwise, other western countries will feel emboldened to sell to Taiwan as well.
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But why though? Taiwan wasting their money on overpriced, obsolete platforms is a good thing, no? Rafales would be held at threat by Chinese IADS the moment they take off.

EDIT: China can do something really funny by letting the sale go through then blocking Dassault's access to bottleneck materials and components. Of course, also threaten secondary sanctions and require end user verification.
 
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BasilicaLew

BasilicaLew

Junior Member
Registered Member
GZDRefugee said:
But why though? Taiwan wasting their money on overpriced, obsolete platforms is a good thing, no? Rafales would be held at threat by Chinese IADS the moment they take off.

EDIT: China can do something really funny by letting the sale go through then blocking Dassault's access to bottleneck materials and components. Of course, also threaten secondary sanctions and require end user verification.
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Taiwan would do much better if they followed What strategy China followed in the 1990s, that is the strategy of building a bunch of small almost worthless things if they got destroyed but able to cause damage higher than its cost, like missile boats. But of course Taiwan would rather have big ticket items to flaunt to there strawberry generation than actually effective weapon systems.

Really why buy the rafale? You should just be buying as many patriots and THAADs as you can.
 
Z

Zhejiang

Junior Member
Registered Member
BasilicaLew said:
Taiwan would do much better if they followed What strategy China followed in the 1990s, that is the strategy of building a bunch of small almost worthless things if they got destroyed but able to cause damage higher than its cost, like missile boats. But of course Taiwan would rather have big ticket items to flaunt to there strawberry generation than actually effective weapon systems.

Really why buy the rafale? You should just be buying as many patriots and THAADs as you can.
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Taiwan is pursuing more smaller weapons but the problem is they mostly still come from the west as Taiwan doesn’t have a big or mature defense industry to support itself, but they also focus on big ticket items because it boosts morale even if they are mostly useless in any AR
 
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jiajia99

Junior Member
Registered Member
BasilicaLew said:
Taiwan would do much better if they followed What strategy China followed in the 1990s, that is the strategy of building a bunch of small almost worthless things if they got destroyed but able to cause damage higher than its cost, like missile boats. But of course Taiwan would rather have big ticket items to flaunt to there strawberry generation than actually effective weapon systems.

Really why buy the rafale? You should just be buying as many patriots and THAADs as you can.
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USA simply cannot produce enough of those and to scale. Hence they wouldn’t be able to get anywhere near enough of those to matter
 
Wrought

Wrought

Senior Member
Registered Member
gelgoog said:
That Dassault CEO probably forgot that China typically sanctions anyone selling weapons to Taiwan.
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He did not, as specifically called out in the article.

The Dassault CEO made it clear, however, that whether France approves such a sale is outside the company’s remit.

“That does not depend on me, and I do not say whether it is right or wrong to sell to Taiwan. That is not my responsibility, it is that of the state,” Trappier told the committee.
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