You are aware the US has a navy and airforce too and missiles don’t win wars
Yes the U.S. has a navy and an air force. How much are they able to deploy to support Taiwan? For the assets deployed, what is their time on station? Do you know? And if you don't how can you say with confidence that the U.S. is able to deploy enough force quickly enough to meaningfully affect the Taiwan outcome?
And while missiles by themselves don't win wars, in this case, they can absolutely keep the U.S. from meaningfully intervening. Not to mention, it wouldn't be "missiles" vs the 7th Fleet and elements of the US Airforce. It would be the PLAN, the PLAAF, plus a crap ton of missiles against the 7th Fleet and elements of the U.S. Airforce.
also the US has a great logistics network that’s how they are able to have bases all across the world if they didn’t they wouldn’t have bases all across the world
Logistics capable of supplying bases in peacetime is not the same thing as logistics capable of supplying those same base when they are under fire form a peer military less than 1000km away from you.
and sure Taiwan is a 100 miles from Taiwan but US bases aren’t super far way ether
...and do you know how far U.S. bases are away from it? I'm not doing your research for you. You need to figure this out. The closest base is Okinawa. Everything else is much farther.
also you are aware US bases are well defended they don’t have zero defense around it. And they are reinforced.
Do you seriously believe that any American base in the Pacific within missile range of China has the magazine depth to defend against a concentrated Chinese missile strike?
Saying Chinas chance of winning is 95-99% is massively underestimating the US ability
It really isn't. I think it's been demonstrated thus far that you have no conception of logistics, combat readiness of platforms, magazine depths of offensive and defensive missiles, or any of the hundreds of other details that basically make it extremely difficult to almost impossible for the U.S. military to win against China in a pure Taiwan scenario. And it's not just me making things up out of my ass. The DoD basically agrees that it can not really defend Taiwan meaningfully from a concentrated attack from the Mainland.
I think it's pretty obvious at this point that you don't have the intellectual capacity to successfully think the question through of how a Sino-American conflict over Taiwan will play out. All you have are vibes and vague feelings based on information that is probably a decade or more old at this point. You have demonstrated that are completely unserious and basically not credible when it comes to your opinions on this matter. Your username of PLAwatcher...is aspirational at best, and insulting to the actual PLA-Watchers on this forum.
Instead of leveraging the fact that you are on a forum full of PLA watchers and using the knowledge on this forum to bolster your own, you choose to sprout garbage opinions with zero resemblance to the situation on the ground (or rather, on the sea and in the air) today. That tells me a lot about your personality. And so long as you demonstrate an inability to seriously and critically reflect on the views that you hold and to modify them in the presence of new information, you are not going to have a good time in life. You will certainly not have a good time in college. My unsolicited advice to you? Listen and read more. Post less.