PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Luke Warmwar said:

There has been no US military presence in Taiwan since 1979, as was agreed in the Shanghai Joint Communique.

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Honestly who expects the US to honor anything anymore? And to that end, neither do we need to honor any promises we make to Americans either. You just have to remember that this is the crazy person you occasionally have to deal with; anything he says is made up and you can make up random nonsense to say to him too so don't take it too seriously. That is just how the game has progressed; keep playing and keep evolving as long as we're winning. No need to flip the Chessboard or do something rash/desperate just because that's how your enemy is feeling.

Luke Warmwar said:

There have more recently been temporary training deployments of troops. However this is the first full time deployment of US troops. That’s a significant, material difference.

A strong deterrent is needed, or next you’ll see outright bases deployed, like in the Philippines or Korea.

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A deterent maybe, but it will have to be much much more clever than the 3 things you mentioned which are all basically going to war. The sad truth is that at the moment, because of the facts on the ground in Taiwan, using the island to push China's buttons is a very easy thing for the US to do and it's very hard for China to respond in an appropriate or measured way. Flying a politician or a handful of soldiers over in a plane is the easiest thing to do and the only way to stop it would be to shoot the plane down, which would be a massive and unwieldy escalation, so to trade barbs in that specific arena is very disadvantageous to China. The good thing is that these actions don't do serious harm but are provacatory in intent and the reason they were done is because the US has run out of options to cause China serious harm so it's down to middle finger gestures. If we respond, we need to respond in another arena that is more equal, or preferably to China's advantage and that will require some very deep clever thought on how to proceed. The main response, however, is to keep growing faster than the US, running down the clock on its global dominance, and to keep making it easier and easier for the PLA to take Taiwan by the day. That's the bread and butter for cutting the US down and it is the undying root of their fears. Anything visual and in addition to that is just the icing on the cake if the CCP can come up with anything.

Luke Warmwar said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1754905398090531278

US forces permanently stationed on Chinese soil.

I would have expected this to be a red line beyond red lines, at least provoking a military response. (Limited blockade, bombing, seizure, etc.)

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Those US SF should fear for their lives if war ever broght out because it is well accepted than Kinmen and Matsu will immediately change side during the first hour of war. The ROC forces will be turning these US SF to PLA with just a few phone calls from Mainland China.

Kinmen local residents are more pro PRC than pro ROC nowadays.

They are not US SF and just mercenary paid by taiwan. Taiwan media always can not be trusted.

Lmao, china won't touch kinmen. Kinmen is a string attached those independence group not to separate. PRC let ROC keep it for political reasons. It will be penghu that's falls first if forceful unification happened

gelgoog said:

It is kind of pointless to replicate the ATGMs you currently see being used in Ukraine.
The industry is moving to latest generation systems like the French Akeron MP. That is what the PLA should try to replicate.

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Honestly low cost, semi-smart weapon like NLAW would be a great solution to have as part of a Hi-Lo mix for the PLA. It allows AT capability to stay within the squad rather than having dedicated weapons team like a ATGM would need due to weight and bulk.

I have seen a surprising amount of footage of tanks survived simply because direct fire RPGs missed. A little smarts can go a long way towards kill probability while keeping costs low.

resistance said:

Lmao, china won't touch kinmen. Kinmen is a string attached those independence group not to separate. PRC let ROC keep it for political reasons. It will be penghu that's falls first if forceful unification happened

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If military reunification happens, then all the islands will fall. From Kinmen to Penghu to Taiwan.

Now Chinese fishermen are getting killed off of the Kinmen coast.

Ignoring provocations just invites greater provocations.

Of course, there are more state-state relations lined up too, with no response expected:

The US is trying to ignite a conflict with China because they know the longer they wait the stronger China will be. At one point it will become impossible for them to even try something like this. China just needs to send in the Coast Guard and the Navy if necessary.

Luke Warmwar said:

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Now Chinese fishermen are getting killed off of the Kinmen coast.

Ignoring provocations just invites greater provocations.

Of course, there are more state-state relations lined up too, with no response expected:

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Hope they join their fellow scammer colleagues from Myanmar soon.

gelgoog said:

The US is trying to ignite a conflict with China because they know the longer they wait the stronger China will be. At one point it will become impossible for them to even try something like this. China just needs to send in the Coast Guard and the Navy if necessary.

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No they're not. If the US wanted to trigger a war with China they could do so literally any time. They could easily cook up a false flag to give pretense.

What's actually happening here is that Congress and the White House/Pentagon are not at all on the same page about Chinese capabilities and willingness to fight. Congress is stuck in 1996, not the least of which because many of its leading figures were in Congress in 1996 because the legislature is a gerontocracy. They think Chinese threats are empty and the PLA is useless and their brains are too old and cemented to change, even with access to classified simulation data. The White House and military are more up to speed and know how badly a war with China would probably go for the US but cannot really do anything about Congress's behavior because it would be political suicide to acknowledge Chinese capabilities openly.

We all saw how much flak Biden got for even alluding to the sentiment that maybe the speaker of the house going to Taiwan days after 8/1 isn't the greatest idea.

That's not to say I think Biden is blameless here. He can and absolutely should tell Congress that while he cannot dictate their travel plans, if they want to go to Taiwan they must do so in the capacity of private citizens and not politicians, meaning no government plane and no military escort. But he's a coward.