PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

Geographer said:

And if one nuclear weapon can induce quick surrender and save lives in the long-run, why is that not advantageous?

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The 1 thing standing in the way of that is the PRC leadership's oft-mentioned principle of "no first use" of nuclear weapons. Advantageous or not is a separate issue. But for the leadership to go back on its words in this day and age.....

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

1) Pres Clinton was probably bluffing in 1996. ...but we'll never know. And that is an effective use of deterrent naval power.

2) While China's naval program is most impressive-it will be quite some time before it is ready to launch a fleet opposed invasion of Taiwan (or anywhere else). Amphibious operations are technically demanding on both hardware and personell. Supply and troop vessels must be protected for extended periods and remain a persistent presence off the landing zone-and please spare me the arguments about how an invasion force could cross the straits and be ashore in "hours". That is simply fantasy. The mere threat the US MIGHT intervene means the PLAN must be prepared for the worst case scenario. Ships, troops and hardware be protected by a multi-faceted US response. Quite a task.

3) It is my opinion that China must be prepared for both near and far operations at the same time. After all... sea lanes to the Persian Gulf will have to be kept open. Therefore it is my opinion that China will have to build a nearly overwhelming naval, air and amphibious capability before undertaking any invasion of Taiwan. That means 15-25 years... at the earliest.

4) Therefore, what is far more likely is an attempt at a soft naval blockade of Taiwan using only subs. A limited undersea war allows for a certain amount of deniability and throttling of the conflict... so it doesn't get out of hand. By sinking some shipping into Taiwan, China can massively raise the costs to shippers and insurance rates. The psychological impact in Taiwan could be severe. And if the US responds with a show of force? Back off and wait till they leave... and then reapply the soft blockade. Eventually... even if it takes a year or two... China will get what it wants through such a campaign. Taiwan is moral cause for Washington... not a vital interest. Therefore, applying limited military pressure should, eventually, do the trick (especially as Washington would have to find alternate buyers to finance debt during that time.)

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

ToxSic said:

I... can't... understand... what you wrote... very well...

Maybe you can edit and clarify?

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Me either.. Red__Sword you need to work on your English skills. It is flabbergasting to attempt to deciefer your English.

bd popeye said:

Me either.. Red__Sword you need to work on your English skills. It is flabbergasting to attempt to deciefer your English.

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It's best if he stops using idioms and old saying unique to one culture. Unless the person has background in that culture, it would be very difficult to understand sometimes.

It's amazing how much airplanes have improved over the years. Now a heavy fighter can carry more payload than the heaviest bomber in WWII. A B-1B, which is considerably smaller than B52, can carry much more payload and fly at much higher speed. It is very necessary for China to build supersonic bomber, maybe not urgent as of this moment, but definitely useful in the long run. All major powers might not need certain technologies at a given time, but they still develop it just in case it will be needed in the future.
I think J-20 is not enough. A B-1B/Tu-160 style bomber should be developed. It will be very useful in the South China Sea disputes. I don't think any countries would want this monster to fly over its airspace, especially when it's guarded by J-20s. Just like how Russia still constantly fly around Japan. Although it is provocative, they did not break any rules. China could do the same to those Southern Asian countries that are claiming Chinese water.

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

A supersonic bomber may be useful.
I can imagine Japanese frustration if they scramble fighters in response to a PLAAF bomber loitering near disputed sea areas, only to find out that they can never catch up to the plane.

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

When it comes to Taiwan I think China is fully capable right now of achieving a sufficient victory to block U.S. intervention. I think a model to look at for how China will act in a future Taiwan conflict is Operation Focus in the Six-Day War: a massive display of force to decimate Taiwan's defenses over a single day. The current Chinese arsenal allows for overwhelming any Taiwanese air defense systems and destroying the air and naval forces of the ROC.

After achieving the effective removal of the naval and air threat the PLAAF could establish air superiority over the entire main island. Elimination of the naval element also allows for a comprehensive blockade of the island. Control could be easily established over the smaller islands in this period. That would, in my opinion, dissuade U.S. intervention all on its own without having to invade the main island. However, such an invasion would probably be necessary to compel Taiwan to reunify with the mainland. Still, with the effective loss of any air support a ground war would be overwhelmingly in China's favor especially since a comprehensive blockade would make resupply of any resistance forces a far more difficult endeavor.

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

Therefore, what is far more likely is an attempt at a soft naval blockade of Taiwan using only subs. A limited undersea war allows for a certain amount of deniability and throttling of the conflict... so it doesn't get out of hand. By sinking some shipping into Taiwan, China can massively raise the costs to shippers and insurance rates. The psychological impact in Taiwan could be severe. And if the US responds with a show of force? Back off and wait till they leave... and then reapply the soft blockade. Eventually... even if it takes a year or two... China will get what it wants through such a campaign. Taiwan is moral cause for Washington... not a vital interest. Therefore, applying limited military pressure should, eventually, do the trick (especially as Washington would have to find alternate buyers to finance debt during that time.)

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Good post cirvine11. I think the naval blockade would be an effective alternative to nuclear strike or invasion. Taiwan cannot grow enough food to support 23 million people. Even if it could, farms need fuel for tractors and to get the food to the cities, etc. A naval blockade is truly crippling, look at the state the Gaza Strip is in. Taiwan would go from a first world society to a a third world society in a few months, with people growing small gardens and scavenging for food and raw materials where ever they can find it. How long could Taiwan hold out? Maybe a couple months? The PLAN could effect this by mining shipping lanes and Taiwan's ports (does China have any air-dropped naval mines?) and sending packs of Type 022s, submarines, and J-11Bs to raid shipping lanes.

But given the U.S. commitment to freedom of the seas , a full embargo would almost certainly draw American intervention. The U.S. could rotate CBGs in and out for years and China would be humiliated if it simply waited for the U.S. to leave. And what if the U.S. retaliates by blocking Chinese shipping from the Persian Gulf? China is no where near the point where it can defend its shipping lanes beyond Asia.

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

It is just time wasting to discuss with "power mongers" - they don't intend to heed the words from whom at a "disadvantage position" (or simply put, "the weaks").

Related yet off topic example: what causes the 1950 Korean war to "expand" the playground and involves China? - is it the sense of righteousness for the free world to turn the tides of FLOOD of REDs away? or simply "I don't think they would really do what they claim to do!"?

Taiwan issue is a domestic issue of China as a whole, PRC ROC, it is all big "C", simply because you never met "Chinese People's voluntary army" kind of warfare before, dosenot means this issue will end the way you want - it will ends in a domestic way where "International intervene" have no place (to ever took place).

There is no such thing that "uncle sam hammers the PLA landing forces off coast"; there is no such thing "PLAF gloriously battle for the air dominance, and failed at bald eagle's might"; there will be no "exchange of fire between carrier groups of PRC and USA"; the breathtaking moment of "USN CBG takes down PLA AshBMs" would only happens at "Command & Conquer" kind of games...

This war, if you call it "war", if it ever passes the CMC, People's Deputies Congress （人民代表大会）and forms THE NATIONAL RESOLUTION - it will not conduct like power mongers favourite nuclear strike, it will not aim for "rapidly seize the goal before international intervene response" kind of lottery strike, it simply would not conduct the way the cow boys likes it to be.

It will be a "Long March" kind of struggle, performed in a way the cow boys can least effectively dealt with: It will be HARASS. Harass the Taiwan island so that there is no future to be an INDEPENDENT ISLAND; Harass whoever's global interests so harshly, it lost so much than it gains, should it intervene China's domestic business; Harass, so there will be no direct (hot) war between China and the "Intervening party"; Harass, that they are so busy around the globe that "dealing Taiwan crysis" is at the bottom of their to-do-list.

When the opponent yields, Taiwan unifies to the big "C" one way or another, "International intervenes" can either prevent their own DISASTER (again, I am not saying "war") from ever happening and try their luck else where;

OR,

Whoever swear to (whoever) Almighty he believes and claims he has saw "NASTY PLAY" - you just didn't see when Chinese play nasty, yet.

Dear sirs, it is not ENGLISH SKILL that makes you wandering, it is CULTURE DIFFERENCES. and I am sharing the culture differences for some time now.

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

But given the U.S. commitment to freedom of the seas , a full embargo would almost certainly draw American intervention. The U.S. could rotate CBGs in and out for years and China would be humiliated if it simply waited for the U.S. to leave. And what if the U.S. retaliates by blocking Chinese shipping from the Persian Gulf? China is no where near the point where it can defend its shipping lanes beyond Asia.

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Thanks. That's why China is likely to use subs only... and not employ a "hard" blockade-meaning stopping or sinking all shipping going to and from Taiwan. A "soft" blockade allows for selective use of limited and directed force at certain shipping... like empty oil tankers going back to the P. Gulf for example. And limited force allows for deniability. Think Cheonan. We all know who sank Cheonan. But there was just enough deniability to avoid direct retalliation... and it allowed for just enough speculation to muddy the waters for those who wanted to avoid all out war. Several ships sunk a month will soon have shippers and insurance companies thinking twice before allowing their ships to sail. But I get your point about China being humiliated if they throttled their blockade to avoid direct confrontation with the US.

Therefore in my opinion- and very ironically-the biggest risk to such a venture is Chinese nationalism. What if a multiple CVBG task force does show up and the blockade was lifted (temporarily)? Would there be a surge of angry nationalism? The results of minor confrontations over the small islands on Chinese public opinion clearly shows the risk Beijing would be carrying if they launched a "soft" operation. So one could argue that Taiwan's protection depends partially on Beijings fear of uncontrolled nationalism.

From a military standpoint-there have been few strategic windows in the past 60 years as favorable as now for China to launch a campaign of limited military pressure on Taiwan. Unlikely.

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

BTW-Geographer-another risk is that Taiwan does something unexpected... like strike PLAN bases on the mainland in retalliation instead of trying to find and sink PLAN subs. Escalation can happen very easily... and that is Taipei's ace card-to retalliate disproportionately and cause escalation drawing in the US (though they might be in for a suprise.)