air assault cavalry is good for small islets that are important but you don't want to divert too much of your amphibious capability towards. good example is Dongyin. a battalion of infantry with air support likely will be enough to take a significant foothold on the island and render it unusable.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Interesting the conclusion of the gaming invasion over Taiwan is that it will be long drawn conflict involving US, Japan, Australia with difficulty of resupplying Taiwan. contrary to the opinion of some would be analyst here that US will make a quick victory over China
Rank garbage. The only purpose of these wargames is to display how delusional the US still is.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
It is not official US gov that did the war gaming, it is NBC in conjunction with this outfit. So yeah take it with pinch of salt.The war game was organized in partnership with the D.C.-based think tank Center for a New American Security (CNAS). It took place amid rising concern among U.S. officials in multiple administrations and in capitals across the Asia-Pacific about the possibility of China attacking Taiwan.
I just watched the video and it was predictably shit. The scenario provided was so BS that even the guest commentator (former NATO commander) said he was surprised that China would do what it was scripted to do.
Just some random thinking:
I mentioned US may have two plans for Taiwan
if we review plan B, it obviously depends on a prerequisite that Taiwan can resist for several months for US domestic ‘media work’ (propaganda). After all few ordinary Americans are interested in Taiwan.
Some people don’t believe it’s possible, but after analyzing Taiwan terrain I found it’s actually possible if they are resolute enough.
The west coast and east coast of Taiwan are totally separated by huge mountains , only few tunnels and ways linked them together. They can easily break 5 of them (red marks) then no troops except air assault can reach the east coast.
The northernmost red mark ‘雪山隧道’ is most important because 1) it’s a tunnel and vulnerable to any damage. 2) once it’s closed, Yilan (a perfect position for US landing) will be totally isolated. It would be extremely hard for PLA to occupy it once Taiwan deploy enough MANPADs and ATGMs in the mountain which is a good shelter against air attack.
Taipei, as an urban area with 6 millions of people is a real obstacle before PLA can have a try to attack Yilan. If it’s residents decide to protect it to the last drop, PLA may need several months to capture it. That’s the only condition imo PLA may use tactical nuclear weapons.
Again, the best strategy for PLA is preparing to win a full scaled war firstly and that’s what are they doing.
I mentioned US may have two plans for Taiwan
For plan A, in 2027 USAF may use all their B-1b, B-52 and transporters equipped with palletized missiles to launch ~1000 munitions, adding ~500 missiles launched from SSGN/SSN. F-35 around China can provide another ~1000 QickSink munitions so PLA would face a crazy ‘air pressure’. It’s smart to expand nuclear arsenal firstly then make sure they can win a full scaled conventional war before focusing on Taiwan itself.
if we review plan B, it obviously depends on a prerequisite that Taiwan can resist for several months for US domestic ‘media work’ (propaganda). After all few ordinary Americans are interested in Taiwan.
Some people don’t believe it’s possible, but after analyzing Taiwan terrain I found it’s actually possible if they are resolute enough.
The west coast and east coast of Taiwan are totally separated by huge mountains , only few tunnels and ways linked them together. They can easily break 5 of them (red marks) then no troops except air assault can reach the east coast.
The northernmost red mark ‘雪山隧道’ is most important because 1) it’s a tunnel and vulnerable to any damage. 2) once it’s closed, Yilan (a perfect position for US landing) will be totally isolated. It would be extremely hard for PLA to occupy it once Taiwan deploy enough MANPADs and ATGMs in the mountain which is a good shelter against air attack.
Taipei, as an urban area with 6 millions of people is a real obstacle before PLA can have a try to attack Yilan. If it’s residents decide to protect it to the last drop, PLA may need several months to capture it. That’s the only condition imo PLA may use tactical nuclear weapons.
Again, the best strategy for PLA is preparing to win a full scaled war firstly and that’s what are they doing.
Yilan port can be mined and bombarded by naval assets independently of Taipei, so it isn't a safe zone either. It's less than 50 km from Taipei but through the mountains meaning that if threatened even by a fleet in being it would split their ground forces between east and west.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Tell me where guerilla war was successful in small island except Cuba. You forgot that Taiwan guerilla need food and logistic to survive. Once china blocked and sealed those access road how are they going to live of the mountain . It is not easy to plant food in a jungle. You have to clear the jungle first! China can easily mined those newly opened food. You also need committed people to support guerilla movement. The only people live on the mountain are indigenous and they are not friendly to Taidu. Na guerilla war is pipe dream. Plus do the strawberry generation can withstand the hardship living of the jungle think of mosquito bite, diarrhea,
Playing RISKS while trying to comfort themselves from the rigged game so that the outcome is predictably U.S. exacting a victory. Prior war games held by the US defense department yielded unexpected results and those are were far more systematic/comprehensive compared to this dog and pony show intended for public consumption a.k.a. propaganda to their public to prepare them for the coming war with China.
You have the zombie looming Michelle Flournoy who was passed over as the SECDEF for Biden leading this propaganda for G.E. (which owns NBC) you have your security-industrial complex working around the clock to hype and dispel Chinese capabilities.