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siegecrossbow

Field Marshall
Staff member
Super Moderator
Why X is filled with stupid narratives these days, of which the most popular two are:

1) Zhang & Liu knew Xi would arrest them, so they conspired and launched a coup against Xi with their "army", but Xi got informed several hours before the operation and ambushed Zhang & Liu's "army". There was a gun fight around Xi's hotel in Beijing at the night of Jan 18th. The coup is a total failure. Dozens died, thousands were arrested.
2) Former Chairman Hu Jintao died of disease days ago, but CCP chose to hide his death.



I know these statements are dumb, but watching Chinese & English audience keep spreading it everywhere is more so.
If I were them I’d start looking for new employment if you get my drift…
 

ismellcopium

Junior Member
Registered Member
Please stop knowingly post bad takes from other sites or platforms here.

We are all aware that there are many many poor opinions out there on the matter, we don't need to have a repository of it here on SDF.
He's been told that more than enough times, users like that who obnoxiously enjoy deliberately finding the most braindead takes just to pollute here with should really start getting bans IMHO.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Jamestown did a much deeper investigation on this.
One difference of military nature they mention Xi's insistence that the PLA accelerates it's Joint operations training and actually hits it's 2027 Taiwan targets while Zhang was more of a 2035 person.

Would recommend diving into the full article. It lists 4 political, and 3 military reasons

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Summary:
  • Official statements point to disagreements with Xi Jinping over PLA development and training, and even instances of open resistance to his directives, as the cause of the generals’ downfall.
  • Zhang Youxia’s timeline for PLA joint operations training did not align with Xi Jinping’s 2027 deadline for the PLA to be capable of invading Taiwan. His force-building agenda also focused on fewer priorities and placed less emphasis than Xi on military struggle as a standalone objective, instead integrating it into training activities.
  • January 2026 marked the start of the final annual training cycle before 2027. The divide between Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping no longer centered on debate or planning and instead shifted to execution and direct noncompliance. This problem was clearly visible across the PLA, and it posed a serious threat to Xi’s authority.
 

Blitzo

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Jamestown did a much deeper investigation on this.
One difference of military nature they mention Xi's insistence that the PLA accelerates it's Joint operations training and actually hits it's 2027 Taiwan targets while Zhang was more of a 2035 person.

Would recommend diving into the full article. It lists 4 political, and 3 military reasons

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Summary:

I think they're putting a finger or two on the scale to interpret it that way.

The statements given by the government are sufficiently vague that it could relate to anything from procurement methods, elements of institutional cultural practices, and sure, also readiness and training and capability development goals.


Trying to pin it specifically to their narrative here is circumstantial upon circumstantial assumption, whereas it remains better to say "we don't know" as the best answer.
The fact that this article focuses on the 2027 timeline so much (even if they talk about it as being for capability development rather than Taiwan per se), and projecting it as if the Chinese leadership was actually focused on it, also betrays a bit of wishcasting confirmation bias, such that the author probably doesn't even know that they're doing so. Those are not hard deadlines for capability development nor are they milestones per se.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
Jamestown did a much deeper investigation on this.
One difference of military nature they mention Xi's insistence that the PLA accelerates it's Joint operations training and actually hits it's 2027 Taiwan targets while Zhang was more of a 2035 person.

Would recommend diving into the full article. It lists 4 political, and 3 military reasons

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Summary:
I’ll be less polite than Blitzo. Dude took some textual “analysis”, said trust me bro with his choice of very liberal interpretations, and spun it into a whole political soap opera.
 
Last edited:

sequ

Colonel
Registered Member
These things happening 13 years into his reign should tell everyone this isn't a simple "corruption'' case but a widespread mismanagement of HR and a large gap between the military and the party. AR by '27 is not going to happen.

I wouldn't be surprised if CMC is going to be reformed to have 50-50 representation of both the military and the party.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
These things happening 13 years into his reign should tell everyone this isn't a simple "corruption'' case but a widespread mismanagement of HR and a large gap between the military and the party. AR by '27 is not going to happen.

I wouldn't be surprised if CMC is going to be reformed to have 50-50 representation of both the military and the party.
Or rather these things happening 13 years in should tell everyone that corruption itself isn’t a simple open and shut issue that you can do away with with one anticorruption campaign? It’s not like the CMC emptied all at once or that we didn’t know there was a multiyear investigation into the PLA procurement system that had already bagged a few other officials. The 2027 date itself was a fabrication of western think tanks anyways so maybe take some extra caution with any takes that build their analysis around that basis.
 

bsdnf

Senior Member
Registered Member
Jamestown did a much deeper investigation on this.
One difference of military nature they mention Xi's insistence that the PLA accelerates it's Joint operations training and actually hits it's 2027 Taiwan targets while Zhang was more of a 2035 person.

Would recommend diving into the full article. It lists 4 political, and 3 military reasons

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Summary:
Just a bunch of hindsight ”experts“

Their folly lies in assuming everyone else shares their narrow focus on matters within two or three years, believing all actions stem from short-term, impulsive, and reckless motives.

You cannot discuss ice with a summer insect, nor can you explain the seasons to a cicada.
 

DeltaGreen

New Member
Registered Member
The 2027 date itself was a fabrication of western think tanks anyways so maybe take some extra caution with any takes that build their analysis around that basis.
I don’t think “2027” is some fantasy or stupidity from Western think tanks. It’s an evil plan that failed due to their own incompetence. It first came up in an interview with Indo-Pacific Commander Paparo, who claimed that by 2027 the PLA would have the initial capability to unify Taiwan.

Many U.S. senators openly, and many ordinary Westerners privately, see a unified, wealthy, modern China and Chinese people living well, as a threat. The hidden Western fantasy is that China, India, and all developing countries remain backward and traditional. They should only appear to develop enough to satisfy Western moral superiority while never truly advancing, especially never challenging the Western order. A China that successfully charts its own modern path must be suppressed or eliminated.

From this perspective, China, the CPC, and Chinese weapons must be framed as evil and incompetent. Acknowledging them as strong and capable would expose Western colonialism and oppression as evil. Political correctness prevents directly criticizing Chinese people, so they use racism and stereotypes,“Chinese can’t innovate” “Chinese are very racist” instead. They actually prefer Chinese people to live poorly, occasionally donating a few pennies to help victims in an “authoritarian” regime.

They are willing to use coups, gray-zone warfare, and conventional war to interrupt China’s natural development. Just as the U.S. engineered the Ukraine war to weaken Russia via an unlucky Ukraine and naïve Europe, they want to replicate this model in China: South China Sea after 2016, Hong Kong 2019, and potentially Taiwan.

But there’s a problem:
  1. If the U.S. doesn’t fight China full-on, its Asian allies would surrender within two months. Local proxy wars like in Ukraine would only hurt the U.S.
  2. Western economies and industries are already dependent on China, and even in full-scale war, the U.S. would struggle to win. There’s no coherent narrative for defeating China militarily.
That’s why the West pushes against China in economics, tech, diplomacy, media, and gray-zone warfare but avoids proxy or full wars. In a parallel world where points 1 and 2 weren’t true, the U.S. would already support independence and launch a war.

The U.S. surely has many military plans and political strategies to support Taiwan independence, but they can’t act on them because they can’t defeat China militarily. What we see as the “2027 narrative” is less about think tanks being stupid and more about preparing public opinion for a possible preventive war. Think tanks and media are paid to hype the near-term possibility of a Taiwan war because the West has been designing and pushing it for the near future.
 

siegecrossbow

Field Marshall
Staff member
Super Moderator
I’ll be less polite than Blitzo. Dude took some textual “analysis”, said trust me bro with his choice of very liberal interpretations, and spun it into a whole political soap opera.
I’ll be even less polite — they shouldn’t be throwing stones when living in glass houses. As horribly corrupt as China’s MIC is we see actual products being delivered and actual progress being made. What major project has proceeded without a hitch from across the pond other than the B-21? Could it be that China just has higher standards? I know that it may come as a shock when you compare infrastructure, EVs, and renewable energy, etc. :rolleyes:

These things happening 13 years into his reign should tell everyone this isn't a simple "corruption'' case but a widespread mismanagement of HR and a large gap between the military and the party. AR by '27 is not going to happen.

I wouldn't be surprised if CMC is going to be reformed to have 50-50 representation of both the military and the party.
Banking on AR not happening because of leadership issues is much like Hitler banking on surviving 45 because Roosevelt has died.
 
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