PLA inventory Tally

T

Totoro

Major
VIP Professional
Couldn't find a better thread for this question so i'm reviving this one.

Recent US DoD report on PRC military continues its weird and possibly wrong estimates of number of planes within plaaf and planaf. So for the 2022 it states China has 1900 combat fighter aircraft (not including trainers and others) as well as 450 bombers/attack aircraft.

Now, for the sake of the argument, lets assume it's not an error. But if we continue to try to dissect those figures - how would one manage to get to such figures? I certain't cant.

For 1900 fighters China would have to have:
300 J16 (kinda achievable)
650 J10 (kinda achievable)
230 J11b (should be about right?)
100 su30 (should be about right)
80 j15 (kinda achievable)
100 j8 (including recon variants, assuming others weren't retired)
200 j7 (assumes not many have been retired recently)
150 j20 (kinda achievable)

But that's still 1810 fighters. Not 1900. And that's with a lot of these items being, frankly, overestimated.

Now, as for 450 bombers/attack planes:
270 jh7 (should be possible)
140 H6K/L/N (possible?)
40-ish older H6 somehow remaining?
I guess this one check out better, as long as there are still a fair number of old H6 remaining.

Anyway, how you'd go about it, to reach those 1900 and 450 figures?
 
A

ACuriousPLAFan

Colonel
Registered Member
Totoro said:
For 1900 fighters China would have to have:
300 J16 (kinda achievable)
650 J10 (kinda achievable)
230 J11b (should be about right?)
100 su30 (should be about right)
80 j15 (kinda achievable)
100 j8 (including recon variants, assuming others weren't retired)
200 j7 (assumes not many have been retired recently)
150 j20 (kinda achievable)
Click to expand...
Why aren't there J-11As and Su-27s?
 
BoraTas

BoraTas

Captain
Registered Member
Totoro said:
Couldn't find a better thread for this question so i'm reviving this one.

Recent US DoD report on PRC military continues its weird and possibly wrong estimates of number of planes within plaaf and planaf. So for the 2022 it states China has 1900 combat fighter aircraft (not including trainers and others) as well as 450 bombers/attack aircraft.

Now, for the sake of the argument, lets assume it's not an error. But if we continue to try to dissect those figures - how would one manage to get to such figures? I certain't cant.

For 1900 fighters China would have to have:
300 J16 (kinda achievable)
650 J10 (kinda achievable)
230 J11b (should be about right?)
100 su30 (should be about right)
80 j15 (kinda achievable)
100 j8 (including recon variants, assuming others weren't retired)
200 j7 (assumes not many have been retired recently)
150 j20 (kinda achievable)

But that's still 1810 fighters. Not 1900. And that's with a lot of these items being, frankly, overestimated.

Now, as for 450 bombers/attack planes:
270 jh7 (should be possible)
140 H6K/L/N (possible?)
40-ish older H6 somehow remaining?
I guess this one check out better, as long as there are still a fair number of old H6 remaining.

Anyway, how you'd go about it, to reach those 1900 and 450 figures?
Click to expand...
Probably extra J-11/Su-27s. I see numbers up to 450 for that type of aircraft.
 
G

guyueyunfan

New Member
Registered Member
sunnymaxi said:
clueless about actual inventory of PLAAF and PLAN.

totally missed out J-11A and SU-27 also J-20 numbers.
Click to expand...
Does he not pay attention to the number of j20 j16 numbers that we have been discussing these days? We can see that he has been active in the forum since 2005. VIP professionals, I can’t understand his thinking, maybe for a long time Reading the brain-dead articles written by those naive Western Liberation Army observers made him fall into the vortex black hole too.
 
T

Totoro

Major
VIP Professional
Indeed, I have forgotten to add the J11a. That's a 100 more. So the list would then look like this.

300 J16 (kinda achievable)
650 J10 (kinda achievable)
100 J11a (give or take)
230 J11b (should be about right?)
100 su30 (should be about right)
80 j15 (kinda achievable)
100 j8 (including recon variants, assuming others weren't retired)
200 j7 (assumes not many have been retired recently)
150 j20 (kinda achievable)

Su-27s have, if i am not mistaken, have all been retired, even the UB variants. And replaced with J11BS and sometimes even J16 two seaters?

Anyway, the list indeed does reach 1900 this way. Question is - are the numbers indeed correct? Especially the old J7 and J8 may not be around in said numbers anymore. But even some of the J10/j16 figures might be somewhat overstated?
 
D

Derpy

Junior Member
Registered Member
Totoro said:
Indeed, I have forgotten to add the J11a. That's a 100 more. So the list would then look like this.

300 J16 (kinda achievable)
650 J10 (kinda achievable)
100 J11a (give or take)
230 J11b (should be about right?)
100 su30 (should be about right)
80 j15 (kinda achievable)
100 j8 (including recon variants, assuming others weren't retired)
200 j7 (assumes not many have been retired recently)
150 j20 (kinda achievable)

Su-27s have, if i am not mistaken, have all been retired, even the UB variants. And replaced with J11BS and sometimes even J16 two seaters?

Anyway, the list indeed does reach 1900 this way. Question is - are the numbers indeed correct? Especially the old J7 and J8 may not be around in said numbers anymore. But even some of the J10/j16 figures might be somewhat overstated?
Click to expand...
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The flanker Guru estimates 705 flankers in total
J20 is estimated at 200+
J10 i havent seen any recent estimate but if we take your 650 number that gets us to 1555 so 345 J7 and J8 needed to reach 1900
 
Jiang ZeminFanboy

Jiang ZeminFanboy

Senior Member
Registered Member
Totoro said:
Couldn't find a better thread for this question so i'm reviving this one.

Recent US DoD report on PRC military continues its weird and possibly wrong estimates of number of planes within plaaf and planaf. So for the 2022 it states China has 1900 combat fighter aircraft (not including trainers and others) as well as 450 bombers/attack aircraft.

Now, for the sake of the argument, lets assume it's not an error. But if we continue to try to dissect those figures - how would one manage to get to such figures? I certain't cant.

For 1900 fighters China would have to have:
300 J16 (kinda achievable)
650 J10 (kinda achievable)
230 J11b (should be about right?)
100 su30 (should be about right)
80 j15 (kinda achievable)
100 j8 (including recon variants, assuming others weren't retired)
200 j7 (assumes not many have been retired recently)
150 j20 (kinda achievable)

But that's still 1810 fighters. Not 1900. And that's with a lot of these items being, frankly, overestimated.

Now, as for 450 bombers/attack planes:
270 jh7 (should be possible)
140 H6K/L/N (possible?)
40-ish older H6 somehow remaining?
I guess this one check out better, as long as there are still a fair number of old H6 remaining.

Anyway, how you'd go about it, to reach those 1900 and 450 figures?
Click to expand...
I've read in that Pentagon report that PLAAF/PLAN have 800+ of 1800 are 4th gen platforms, lol. The data I guess is from 2014?

1669985412678.png
 
G

guyueyunfan

New Member
Registered Member
Jiang ZeminFanboy said:
I've read in that Pentagon report that PLAAF/PLAN have 800+ of 1800 are 4th gen platforms, lol. The data I guess is from 2014?

View attachment 102847
Click to expand...
Can these naive so-called PLA watchers pull their ostrich heads full of bird shit out of the sand? It's really puzzling why these garbage always appear in the reports that should be serious and professional.
 
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