Persian Gulf & Middle East Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

delft

Brigadier
Comments by the former Indian ambassador M K Bhadrakumar on the EU sanctions against Iran:
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Iran ridicules EU’s oil sanctions
China finally came out with a statement strongly critical of the European Union’s sanctions against Iran’s oil exports. The FO spokesman in Beijing said the moves to put pressure on Iran and impose sanctions are not “constructive approaches”. The statement essentially takes the same line that Russia took, namely, nothing should detract from the expected talks between Iran and the “5+1″.

Obviously, China will continue to import oil from Iran. Trade also will continue. The last year’s statistics show an increase of 55% in the bilateral trade as compared to 2010. China’s oil imports from Iran in 2011 rose by 30%. There will be strong impetus for both sides to sustain the momentum in the economic ties.
Meanwhile, has Europe bitten more than it could chew? The IMF is warning of increase of oil price to $140 due to the EU’s Iran sanctions. No wonder, Tehran is calmly reacting to the EU’s histrionics. The EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton got some sound advice from the influential Iranian politician Alaeddin Broujerdi, chairman of the Iranian Majlis’ national security and foreign policy commission, who said she should stop playing “political games” and get serious.
The matter can indeed get quite serious next week even if Ashton refuses to get serious. The Majlis in Tehran is apparently mooting a proposal to put an embargo on oil exports to Europe. Now, EU’s sanctions are supposed to come into effect only in July so that the member countries could make alternate arrangements for their oil needs. Funnily, the Iranians are posing: ‘Why wait till July?’
If Iran imposes oil sanctions against EU, what will President Barack Obama do? Will he threaten to go to war with Iran unless Iran continued to export oil to Europe? The decent thing will be for Obama to make an offer to the European countries that the US would make up for the Iranian oil. Perhaps, he could also have a word with his predecessor Jimmy Carter how to deal with the Iranians in an election year in the US.
Meanwhile, Tehran is mending fences with the GCC states. Two deputy foreign ministers have been despatched to Kuwait and Abu Dhabi for consultations. Don’t be surprised if the Saudi-Iranian rhetoric also peters off. Clearly, the GCC states have a great deal to lose if tensions spiral up. They will pay attention to the latest warning by the Supreme Leader’s advisor and veteran Iranian statesman Ali Akbar Velayati to the effect that Iran and the GCC states are travelling on the same boat and they will ultimately swim or sink together.
 

delft

Brigadier
The State Department wants to run unmanned spy planes over Iraq according to this article from The New York Times:
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U.S. Drones Patrolling Its Skies Provoke Outrage in Iraq
By ERIC SCHMITT and MICHAEL S. SCHMIDT
Published: January 29, 2012

BAGHDAD — A month after the last American troops left Iraq, the State Department is operating a small fleet of surveillance drones here to help protect the United States Embassy and consulates, as well as American personnel. Some senior Iraqi officials expressed outrage at the program, saying the unarmed aircraft are an affront to Iraqi sovereignty.

The program was described by the department’s diplomatic security branch in a little-noticed section of its most recent annual report and outlined in broad terms in a two-page online prospectus for companies that might bid on a contract to manage the program. It foreshadows a possible expansion of unmanned drone operations into the diplomatic arm of the American government; until now they have been mainly the province of the Pentagon and the Central Intelligence Agency.

American contractors say they have been told that the State Department is considering to field unarmed surveillance drones in the future in a handful of other potentially “high-threat” countries, including Indonesia and Pakistan, and in Afghanistan after the bulk of American troops leave in the next two years. State Department officials say that no decisions have been made beyond the drone operations in Iraq.

The drones are the latest example of the State Department’s efforts to take over functions in Iraq that the military used to perform. Some 5,000 private security contractors now protect the embassy’s 11,000-person staff, for example, and typically drive around in heavily armored military vehicles.

When embassy personnel move throughout the country, small helicopters buzz over the convoys to provide support in case of an attack. Often, two contractors armed with machine guns are tethered to the outside of the helicopters. The State Department began operating some drones in Iraq last year on a trial basis, and stepped up their use after the last American troops left Iraq in December, taking the military drones with them.

The United States, which will soon begin taking bids to manage drone operations in Iraq over the next five years, needs formal approval from the Iraqi government to use such aircraft here, Iraqi officials said. Such approval may be untenable given the political tensions between the two countries. Now that the troops are gone, Iraqi politicians often denounce the United States in an effort to rally support from their followers.

A senior American official said that negotiations were under way to obtain authorization for the current drone operations, but Ali al-Mosawi, a top adviser to Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki; Iraq’s national security adviser, Falih al-Fayadh; and the acting minister of interior, Adnan al-Asadi, all said in interviews that they had not been consulted by the Americans.

Mr. Asadi said that he opposed the drone program: “Our sky is our sky, not the U.S.A.’s sky.”

The Pentagon and C.I.A. have been stepping up their use of armed Predator and Reaper drones to conduct strikes against militants in places like Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia. More recently, the United States has expanded drone bases in Ethiopia, the Seychelles and a secret location in the Arabian Peninsula.

The State Department drones, by contrast, carry no weapons and are meant to provide data and images of possible hazards, like public protests or roadblocks, to security personnel on the ground, American officials said. They are much smaller than armed drones, with wingspans as short as 18 inches, compared with 55 feet for the Predators.

The State Department has about two dozen drones in Iraq, but many are used only for spare parts, the officials said.

The United States Embassy in Baghdad referred all questions about the drones to the State Department in Washington.

The State Department confirmed the existence of the program, calling the devices unmanned aerial vehicles, but it declined to provide details. “The department does have a U.A.V. program,” it said in a statement without referring specifically to Iraq. “The U.A.V.’s being utilized by the State Department are not armed, nor are they capable of being armed.”

When the American military was still in Iraq, white blimps equipped with sensors hovered over many cities, providing the Americans with surveillance abilities beyond the dozens of armed and unarmed drones used by the military. But the blimps came down at the end of last year as the military completed its withdrawal. Anticipating this, the State Department began developing its own drone operations.

According to the most recent annual report of the department’s diplomatic security branch, issued last June, the branch worked with the Pentagon and other agencies in 2010 to research the use of low-altitude, long-endurance unmanned drones “in high-threat locations such as Iraq and Afghanistan.”

The document said that the program was tested in Iraq in December 2010. “The program will watch over State Department facilities and personnel and assist regional security officers with high-threat mission planning and execution,” the document said.

In the online prospectus, called a “presolicitation notice,” the State Department last September outlined a broad requirement to provide “worldwide Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (U.A.V.) support services.” American officials said this was to formalize the initial program.

The program’s goal is “to provide real-time surveillance of fixed installations, proposed movement routes and movement operations,” referring to American convoy movements. In addition, the program’s mission is “improving security in high-threat or potentially high-threat environments.”

The document does not identify specific countries, but contracting specialists familiar with the program say that it focuses initially on operations in Iraq. That is “where the need is greatest,” said one contracting official who spoke on condition of anonymity, because the contract is still in its early phase.

In the next few weeks, the department is expected to issue a more detailed proposal, requesting bids from private contractors to operate the drones. That document, the department said Friday, will describe the scope of the program, including the overall cost and other specifics.

While the preliminary proposal has drawn interest from more than a dozen companies, some independent specialists who are familiar with drone operations expressed skepticism about the State Department’s ability to manage such a complicated and potentially risky enterprise.

“The State Department needs to get through its head that it is not an agency adept at running military-style operations,” said Peter W. Singer, a scholar at the Brookings Institution and the author of “Wired for War,” a book about military robotics.

The American plans to use drones in the air over Iraq have also created yet another tricky issue for the two countries, as Iraq continues to assert its sovereignty after the nearly nine-year occupation. Many Iraqis remain deeply skeptical of the United States, feelings that were reinforced last week when the Marine who was the so-called ringleader of the 2005 massacre of 24 Iraqis in the village of Haditha avoided prison time and was sentenced to a reduction in rank.

“If they are afraid about their diplomats being attacked in Iraq, then they can take them out of the country,” said Mohammed Ghaleb Nasser, 57, an engineer from the northern city of Mosul.

Hisham Mohammed Salah, 37, an Internet cafe owner in Mosul, said he did not differentiate between surveillance drones and the ones that fire missiles. “We hear from time to time that drone aircraft have killed half a village in Pakistan and Afghanistan under the pretext of pursuing terrorists,” Mr. Salah said. “Our fear is that will happen in Iraq under a different pretext.”

Still, Ghanem Owaid Nizar Qaisi, 45, a teacher from Diyala, said that he doubted that the Iraqi government would stop the United States from using the drones. “I believe that Iraqi politicians will accept it, because they are weak,” he said.
 

delft

Brigadier
Another, and to me very surprising, article by Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar:
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A dragon dance in the Negev
By M K Bhadrakumar

There is no record of dragons in the nomadic life of the Negev desert, which dates back at least 4, 000 years (some say 7,000). That may be about to change in the Year of the Dragon.

The Bedouins of the Negev will soon witness the sight of a Chinese-built railway line snaking its way through the melange of brown, rocky, dusty mountains and the wadis and deep craters, leading north from the resort city of Eilat in the Gulf of Aqaba toward the eastern Mediterranean.

Having developed strong interests on the two sides of the Persian Gulf divide - Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and Iran - China is taking an awesome leap as a big-time player in the geopolitics of the Middle East by elevating its ties with Israel to a strategic partnership.

Paradoxically, just as the United States is hoping to nettle the dragon in the South China Sea and "contain" it in the Asia Pacific, it makes a dramatic, outflanking appearance in the citadel of American geo-strategies in the Middle East. The geopolitical implications are profound.

Amid the cacophony of the war drums beating in the Persian Gulf and in the Levant, it almost went unnoticed that the exchange of greetings between Beijing and Tel Aviv last week marking the 20th anniversary of diplomatic ties between the two countries acquired a sudden verve that went far beyond the calls of mere protocol.

Diplomacy for all seasons

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country and China make a "successful combination" and he could visualize a "dramatic expansion" of the ties. "I think we've barely scratched the surface of Israeli-Chinese relations", he said at a celebration in Tel Aviv last Tuesday.

In his message of greetings for the anniversary, President Hu Jintao said China "attaches great importance to advancing Sino-Israeli ties and is ready to make joint efforts with Israel". In turn, Premier Wen Jiabao noted that China and Israel have "huge potential and broad prospects for cooperation" and Beijing is "ready to continue to expand and deepen" the ties and raise them to "a new high".

Speaking at the function in Tel Aviv, Netanyahu pointedly invited Beijing to work with Israel to "address the challenges of securing Middle East peace". And China's ambassador to Israel Gao Yanping, who was present, responded:
The further development of China-Israel relations is not only beneficial to both countries and the two peoples, but are also very much conducive to regional stability, world peace and global prosperity.

Facing the ongoing transformation and adjustment in the region [read Arab Spring] and in the world, China-Israel relationship is now at a new historical point. We should continue to work together, grow together and succeed together in the years to come.
These are heady, brave thoughts for a region where angels fear to tread. But the maturity of China-Israel ties today is such that even as Gao was speaking at Tel Aviv, her counterpart in the United Nations in New York, ambassador Li Baodong, was taking note of the "stalemate" in the Middle East peace process and reiterating China's strong support for a Palestinian state as part of a two-state solution, restoring the "lawful right" of Palestinian people.

Li said, "China supports the establishment of an independent Palestinian state that enjoys full sovereignty, with East Jerusalem as its capital and based on the 1967 border. China supports Palestine's membership in the United Nations." Li went on to roundly condemn the Israeli government's recent decision giving approval for plans of expansion of new settlements. He said:
China is always against Israel's establishment of Jewish settlements in the occupied Palestinian territory including East Jerusalem. We urge Israel to cease the settlement construction immediately, by prudent in action and work actively in collaboration with the efforts of the international community to promote peace, and create conditions for the resumption of Palestinian-Israeli peace negotiation.
Li seemed unperturbed by the warm sentiments being mutually expressed between the Chinese and the Israeli leaderships the very same day that he spoke.

The parallel portfolio of China's stunning Middle East diplomacy that was evident during Wen Jiabao's recent six-day tour of the GCC states is repeating. (China weighs 'right side of history' in Gulf, Asia Times Online, January 17, 2012).

China's Middle East diplomacy is adroitly advancing three parallel tracks engaging Iran, GCC states and Israel. This may seem improbable against the backdrop of the rise of Iran and the concomitant hostility it arouses in Israel and the GCC states. But Beijing sees no contradiction here, and is striving to make the three tracks even complement each other. Conceivably, one day they well might.

The great beauty is that all three Middle Eastern camps - Iran, the GCC and Israel - equally want the best of relationships with China and are manifestly vying with each other for the dragon's prime time. This is going to pose an unsolvable riddle for other outside powers aspiring for influence in the region, be it the West or Turkey and Russia.

Netanyahu said, "I appreciate China's need to ensure a regular supply of sources of energy in order to continue its impressive growth. I believe it is possible to replace Iranian oil." He still hopes to wean China away from Iranian oil, although Beijing has no intentions to erode its economic relationship with Iran. China-Iran trade is booming at US$45 billion - as compared to $8 billion China-Israel trade.

'Junction between continents'

Nonetheless, Israel is making an offer out of the massive oil and gas reserves in the Levant Basin province in the eastern Mediterranean. The area, encompassing approximately 32,000 square miles, covers onshore and offshore territory including the Gaza Strip, Israel, Lebanon, Syria and Cyprus. The US Geological Survey estimated in 2010 that the area holds a mean of 1.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil and a mean of 122 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of recoverable gas.

The earlier estimation was that these reserves would ensure Israel's energy security, but more recent assessment in the light of new findings of reserves is that they are far greater than required to meet Israel's needs.

Huge infrastructure development is on the cards including liquefaction facilities to be set up on Israel's coast and transportation routes leading to viable markets for Israel's energy export. These alluring vistas of cooperation explain Netanyahu's confidence that Israel's bilateral trade with China can be easily doubled in the very near future. (China already figures as Israel's third important trading partner after the US and European Union.)

Israeli Transport Minister Yisrael Katz visited Beijing in September and he has been quoted recently as saying, "The professional capability of the Chinese companies in the construction of railway systems and transportation networks is among the best in the world."

The Israeli Transport Ministry has underscored that Israel would prefer Chinese state-owned companies to undertake the construction of a so-called "Med-Red" railway through the Negev Desert's Zin Valley connecting Israel's Mediterranean and Red Sea coast cities of Haifa and Eilat.

Swiftly following up on Katz's discussions in Beijing, China began working on a joint proposal with Israel for the Eilat link. Chinese and Israeli companies may jointly execute the project and, conceivably, China may invest in the project.

Now, the two biggest Israeli gas finds - Leviathan and Tamar - lie off 130 and 80 kilometers from the port city of Haifa. While Leviathan is estimated to hold reserves of 16 tcf of gas, Tamar's reserves amount to at least 8.4 tcf. (Recently, two more gas fields - Sarah and Mira - were discovered off the port city of Hadera further south of Haifa.)

The proposed rail-cum-road links would facilitate transfer of liquefied natural gas from Israel's Mediterranean coast to the Red Sea coast from where they can be shipped across the Indian Ocean to China. Again, the communication link would enhance the scope for China's exports to central and southern Europe and the Balkans.

The relationship between China and Israel has been complex. It has had its ups and downs. But the Israeli Foreign Ministry is justified in claiming in a statement last week that the two countries are presently "enjoying a flowering of relations in recent years".

Indeed, 2011 has been a good year. In May the commander of the Chinese navy Admiral Wu Shengli visited Israel, which was followed in August by the visit by the chief of the People's Liberation Army general staff department General Chen Bingde. This was the first visit by a Chinese military chief to Israel.

In between, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak visited China in June, which was also the first of its kind. In July, the two countries concluded an economic cooperation agreement. To quote Netanyahu, "The bilateral ties are important to us; therefore, we are committed to expanding them quickly in a variety of fields. To this end, I have issued a sweeping directive to approve any invitation to visit China."

Clearly, Israel and China are poised to enter a profound and highly strategic engagement. Netanyahu told a cabinet meeting in Tel Aviv on Sunday that he intended to develop the proposed rail and road networks joining Eilat to northern Israel as a "junction between continents". He went on to flag China's interest in the project.

Beijing would have already sized up the immense strategic potential of an audacious transportation route across the Negev bypassing Egypt's congested Suez Canal, which would connect Asia with Europe. It almost seems Washington has lost the plot.

Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.

(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
 

delft

Brigadier
A blog by Ambassador M K Bhadrakuma on the Indian position in the Middle East:
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New thinking in India’s Iran policy
Finally, India is getting its act together in its Iran policy. The ‘breaking news’ that India proposes to robustly explore expanding its trade with Iran signals a new approach to stepping up oil imports from Iran while at the same time rectifying the imbalance in trade, which heavily favours Iran traditionally, and to make this happen within a paradigm that resolves the current problem over the payment mechanism.

The new thinking is an acknowledgement of Iran’s importance as a strategic partner. That is where the rub lies. Delhi has lumped far too long the blackmail tactic by Washington with the malicious intention to erode India’s ties with Iran. Indeed, as result, for no real fault of Tehran, the India-Iran relationship suffered needless setbacks in the recent years.
Delhi should never accept that this is a zero sum game - India’s relationships with the US and Iran respectively. Iran is far too important a regional power in India’s extended neighbourhood to be neglected. There is no need to dilate on this thought.
Other Asian countries like Japan, South Korea or Malaysia have successfully managed to have positive relationships with both Iran and the GCC states. Also, GCC states themselves have maintained highly nuanced relationships with Iran. In a long term perspective, it is far from inevitable that Iran’s rise is an irreconcilable eventuality for the GCC states.
Much of the present-day tensions in the Persian Gulf is also to be attributed to the imperial policy of ‘divide-and-rule’ that the West continues to pursue in the region for the sake of perpetuating their hegemony. Finally, the US-Iran standoff itself is increasingly becoming unsustainable if Washington is to optimally develop a regional strategy. The point is, Iran has already bolted away.
China sees all these trends very clearly and is successfully developing a multi-tiered regional strategy that creates space for pursuing fruitful relations with Iran and GCC - and even Israel - alike.
Indeed, it is also best for a healthy US-India partnership that it is an equal relationship where neither side takes undue advantage or tries to browbeat or resorts to prescriptive approaches and arm-twisting. In this case, the US policy toward Iran also happens to be vacuous, lacking sincerity of purpose; it is opaque and brittle - and increasingly, US comes to realise that even its European allies are reluctant to follow its lead. Therefore, it is simply appalling that US has chosen to harbour expectations of dictating to Delhi the directions and content of its Iran policy.
Of course, the American side is not to bear the entire blame, either. Somehow, the Indian elites (including bureaucrats) and strategic pundits have come to develop an atavistic fear that US-Indian partnership is highly perishable unless Delhi keeps harmonising its policies with the US global strategies even by sacrificing its interests. This sort of inferiority complex is completely unwarranted.
The heart of the matter is that the US is a highly experienced practitioner of diplomacy. If it began abandoning its historic cussedness toward India sometime during Bill Clinton administration’s second term, it was because Washington saw the growth potential of India and the great possibilities that would arise for a beneficial relationship.
Even today, that consideration is the prime mover of the US polices toward India. It is a well-known fact that after being grumpy for a few weeks after India spurned the US offer for the 10-billion dollar multi-purpose aircraft tender, Washington moved on.
We could also learn from the Americans - how doggedly they keep pursuing their regional strategies through the Afghan endgame, no matter what Delhi thinks of it. Suffice to say, the high probability is that India’s Iran policy may displease Washington for a while and then life will move on. As for the fear complex of the Indian elites or pundits, it is borne more out of their own insecurities vis-a-vis the US establishment and it should remain their private affair.
From this, and also from this article in Asia Times on line -
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, it seems all countries in the neighborhood are best served by sitting out the current saber rattling and expect it to end with the US elections.
By having good relations with all parties in the Middle East - Iran, Gulf Cooperation Council, Israel, Egypt - China is well situated to help solve the problems in the longer run.
 

navyreco

Senior Member
OK, so doing a little bit of research following a thread on mp.net I just realized the following:


Right now, all these "exercise" are taking place (or about to) and I am probably forgetting some:
- US Navy, US Marines, Canada / United Kingdom / France / Netherlands / Spain / Italy / New Zealand / Australia participating in Bold Alligator
Exercise Bold Alligator 2012, the largest naval amphibious exercise in the past 10 years, represents the Navy and Marine Corps' revitalization of the full range of amphibious operations. The exercise focuses on today's fight with today's forces, while showcasing the advantages of seabasing. Bold Alligator allows our institutions to learn about amphibious capabilities, so that the broader force can make the most of this unique naval capability. This exercise will take place 30 Jan - 12 Feb, 2012, afloat and ashore in and around Virginia and North Carolina.

- Cobra Gold.
One of the world’s largest multinational military exercises kicks off Monday in Thailand.

An estimated 11,220 people, including 7,200 U.S. servicemembers, will participate in the 30th annual Cobra Gold exercise, which begins with opening ceremonies in the northern city of Chiang Mai, and concludes Feb. 18.

Servicemembers from Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia will join hosts Thailand and the United States, U.S. Marine Corps officials said Friday.

-Garlic Marauder French/British
EXERCISE GALLIC MARAUDER is a small-scale air exercise that will take place over parts of north Dartmoor over the period 25th January to 4th February 2012. The Exercise is designed to practice close air support operations and forward air control techniques. This training is essential for UK Ground Forces and allows them to practice various techniques and procedures before possible deployment to an operational theatre. Flying is expected to take place daily between 9.30am and 8pm, but there will be no weekend flying activity.
Aircraft types involved in Exercise Gallic Marauder will include Rafale, Mirage and Super Etendard jet aircraft of the French Navy Air Wing and the French Air Force

-ZORAN 12 "Interallies exercise" (French MOD didn't disclosed which allies yet) Feb. 6 & 7
The scenario: The island of Levant is a totalitarian country that attempts to develop weapons of mass destruction. About to reach its goal, it is preparing to attack its neighbor (Corsica). Another country (France) mandated by the United Nations sends fighter bombers to destroy the potential for mass destruction.

^ lol at last one... couldn't be more explicit

So I came to the conclusion that something's up, or at least "the west" is trying hard to send a message
 

bd popeye

The Last Jedi
VIP Professional
I know that Cobra Gold and Bold Alligator are held annually the same time every year. As for the rest..interesting.
 

delft

Brigadier
From Marine Forum Daily News:
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for 02 February:
Up to five ships carrying grain to Iran have been diverted to new destinations as European Union sanctions hold up payments.

The EU said sanctions shouldn't hurt the Iranian population.
 

delft

Brigadier
Another blog post from ambassador M K Bhadrakumar, now about the position of India vis-a-vis Iran:
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India signals long-term partnership with Iran
India figured as Iran’s number one crude oil customer in January. That may be difficult to believe but it is indeed a statement of fact. Actually, India stepped up its imports of Iranian oil by 37.5 percent, which helped Iran offset a 50 percent cut in Chinese purchases resulting from a dispute in pricing. China now imports around 250000 barrels a day as against India’s 550000 barrels a day, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

Of course, what stands out is that New Delhi’s Iran policy is crystallising. India will concentrate on its self-interests in a highly fluid regional security scenario without in the least being ideological about the winds of change blowing through that region. This is the message one gets. Indeed, the US-Iran standoff is primarily geopolitical and it doesn’t concern India, which is in any case not in the business of ‘regime change’.
In all probability, Washington too will eventually get to see the futility of this standoff and will move toward engaging Tehran. Despite the western rhetoric, the fact remains that sanctions against Iran failed to work through the past 30 years. Even a noted Iran-baiter like French president Nicolas Sarkozy is warning that a military strike against Iran serves no purpose.
Now, coming back to India’s oil imports from Iran, Washington will continue to dissuade Delhi from trading with Tehran. The US state department spokesperson told reporters Tuesday that the talks with the visiting Indian foreign secretary in Washington included “how India might find alternative sources… This is a two-track policy, both to encourage countries to wean themselves from Iranian oil, but also to work with suppliers around the world to help countries find alternative sources of supply.”
However, what Washington overlooks is that India’s economic relationship with Iran as such is also at stake here. Without oil imports, India-Iran trade virtually packs up. Delhi’s robust efforts to work out a reliable payment mechanism for the trade with Iran underscores that it intends to not only sustain the present level of trade but do all it can to boost the trade by stepping up India’s exports to Iran. The government is mounting a “huge” business delegation to Iran in end-February to explore the opportunities for tapping those sectors that are being vacated by the western countries following their embargo against Iran. It is a long-term approach that India is adopting, keeping in view the fact that Iran is a rich country potentially which offers a big market for India’s exports.
The new payment mechanism — providing for 45% of Iranian oil to be settled for in Indian rupees — opens up interesting possibilities. Of course, Iran has the option to leave the money in the Indian state-owned UCO Bank at an interest rate of 4% or so. But to obviate currency risks, Iran may perhaps prefer to use the money to import from India or to use India as a trading hub to buy from third countries. Iran also can invest the money in Indian bonds or equities, which Delhi might welcome. In sum, the payment mechanism acts as a catalyst to build up the momentum of economic ties as well as broadening and deepening the partnership.

With US influence in Iraq waning even faster than many expected, the early departure of the French troops from Afghanistan and the situation in Syria not developing as the US wants despite the use of Libyan mercenaries, it seems that the possibility of success for any policy by the US other than diplomatic engagement is slim. Unfortunately such a diplomatic engagement will be portrait in the US Congress as a reward for mad mullahs rather than the sensible thing to do.
 

MwRYum

Major
Another blog post from ambassador M K Bhadrakumar, now about the position of India vis-a-vis Iran:
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With US influence in Iraq waning even faster than many expected, the early departure of the French troops from Afghanistan and the situation in Syria not developing as the US wants despite the use of Libyan mercenaries, it seems that the possibility of success for any policy by the US other than diplomatic engagement is slim. Unfortunately such a diplomatic engagement will be portrait in the US Congress as a reward for mad mullahs rather than the sensible thing to do.

This is the election year, so everyone would be "crazy", once the dust settled by December they'll all get back to their senses...or at least in the meantime, do things like that behind the door and keep the lid tight.
 
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