North Korean plane crashes in China

AssassinsMace said:

I thought he was defecting to Russia. Now he wants to be seen over Chinese cities in his attempt to get over to Russia just in case he needs to bail out?

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It makes sense; the pilot probably didn't know how much fuel he had to begin with and how much it would take to make it to Russia. Also, if past defections have been any indicator, he probably didn't know how well maintained his aircraft was, and if it could make the trip. If I were him, the risks of flying over Chinese cities so if I was forced to bail out I would be rescued quickly and possibly of being intercepted by the Chinese Air Force is one I would take over trying to stay away from populated areas and possibly crashing in the middle of nowhere with no hope of quick rescue.

Pointblank said:

It makes sense; the pilot probably didn't know how much fuel he had to begin with and how much it would take to make it to Russia. Also, if past defections have been any indicator, he probably didn't know how well maintained his aircraft was, and if it could make the trip. If I were him, the risks of flying over Chinese cities so if I was forced to bail out I would be rescued quickly and possibly of being intercepted by the Chinese Air Force is one I would take over trying to stay away from populated areas and possibly crashing in the middle of nowhere with no hope of quick rescue.

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So what you are trying to say is that in case this defector gets intercepted by Chinese fighters he can make as much of a raucous as possible on the international scene so China might be pressured into handing him over?

Pointblank said:

It makes sense; the pilot probably didn't know how much fuel he had to begin with and how much it would take to make it to Russia. Also, if past defections have been any indicator, he probably didn't know how well maintained his aircraft was, and if it could make the trip. If I were him, the risks of flying over Chinese cities so if I was forced to bail out I would be rescued quickly and possibly of being intercepted by the Chinese Air Force is one I would take over trying to stay away from populated areas and possibly crashing in the middle of nowhere with no hope of quick rescue.

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No it doesn't make sense at all unless you're going to admit the guy was crazy to think that was possible. Plus with your little graphic all you did was line up the airport in Russia with where the fighter went down and drew a line into North Korea. You have no idea what direction that fighter came from.

An incompetent pilot that knew how to fly a fighter but couldn't guess how much fuel he had. Did he crash near the Russian/Chinese border showing he made a slight error? No, he crash far from it with apparently no fuel left. It don't make sense because he had a lot easier choices if he were defecting but he took the hardest one according to you. What happened to full afterburners all the way to Russia to evade the Chinese? Now all of the sudden if something happened on the way he wanted to be found by the Chinese?

Let me tell you man, there is NO place in China apart from the western provinces where you will land in the middle of nowhere. You literally cannot walk for 5 km without running up into a village, and farmland basically covers up all of the countryside.

siegecrossbow said:

So what you are trying to say is that in case this defector gets intercepted by Chinese fighters he can make as much of a raucous as possible on the international scene so China might be pressured into handing him over?

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I think that he would rather be alive than dead. Flying over populated areas would give him the best opportunity to survive in the event something goes wrong onboard. Then if he survives, he could figure out how to get the Chinese to hold him a little bit longer so he could attempt to escape.

AssassinsMace said:

No it doesn't make sense at all unless you're going to admit the guy was crazy to think that was possible. Plus with your little graphic all you did was line up the airport in Russia with where the fighter went down and drew a line into North Korea. You have no idea what direction that fighter came from.

An incompetent pilot that knew how to fly a fighter but couldn't guess how much fuel he had. Did he crash near the Russian/Chinese border showing he made a slight error? No, he crash far from it with apparently no fuel left. It don't make sense because he had a lot easier choices if he were defecting but he took the hardest one according to you. What happened to full afterburners all the way to Russia to evade the Chinese? Now all of the sudden if something happened on the way he wanted to be found by the Chinese?

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The general understanding of the psychology behind defection attempts is that they generally fall under two categories; the rash, illogical attempts where defectors take enormous gambles in a bid for freedom, such as Peter Fechter's attempt across the Berlin Wall. The other is a more involved, more highly calculated attempts, where tons of planning, effort, resources and maybe outside help goes into such attempts to keep the risk at a more manageable level, such as Arkady Shevchenko's defection to the US.

We know he took off from Sinuiju. We know where his aircraft ended up. Extrapolate from his rough course into Russia. Alternatively, Mongolia is an option as well, as the Mongolians will automatically deport North Koreans to South Korea.

I would not call the pilot incompetent. It's a symptom of the North Korean training system, where only very basic flying skills are taught, along with combat skills. That means lessons on fuel management, advanced navigation are omitted because the North Korean's don't feel such skills are necessary for the job.

Pointblank said:

The general understanding of the psychology behind defection attempts is that they generally fall under two categories; the rash, illogical attempts where defectors take enormous gambles in a bid for freedom, such as Peter Fechter's attempt across the Berlin Wall. The other is a more involved, more highly calculated attempts, where tons of planning, effort, resources and maybe outside help goes into such attempts to keep the risk at a more manageable level, such as Arkady Shevchenko's defection to the US.

We know he took off from Sinuiju. We know where his aircraft ended up. Extrapolate from his rough course into Russia. Alternatively, Mongolia is an option as well, as the Mongolians will automatically deport North Koreans to South Korea.

I would not call the pilot incompetent. It's a symptom of the North Korean training system, where only very basic flying skills are taught, along with combat skills. That means lessons on fuel management, advanced navigation are omitted because the North Korean's don't feel such skills are necessary for the job.

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You said he was using afterburners to get to Russia. You think he could've made it?

AssassinsMace said:

You said he was using afterburners to get to Russia. You think he could've made it?

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Not at that rate of fuel consumption, but I am guessing that the pilot would not fully understand that using afterburners would dramatically cut into his range. I think if if this was the case, he was making a rash decision based upon his need to get out of range of North Korean air defence as quickly as possible, as he thought he was being tailed.

You seem to be so sure of everything. Now you're just guessing? You seem to think you know exactly what the pilot was thinking... where he was going... what was his motivation... You said he was flying a straight line to Russia. Apparently it's better living there than in South Korea or Japan which would've been more easier to get to. Then you change your mind and say he's heading to Mongolia so he can be handed over to South Korea. But you believed the South Korean propaganda that he was defecting to Russia not taking the long way to Mongolia and then get sent to South Korea. Did he use afterburners or not? Wasn't that to evade the Chinese? But then he was thoughtful enough to think if anything happened he'll be close enough to being rescued by the Chinese. But then that kind of logic doesn't play into how much fuel he had according to you. Your two types of contradicting defectors are merging into one. Which means that's all bull. He can't be calculating because he ran out of fuel not even making it a third of the way to Russia and he chose the longest shot possible. He can't be rash and illogical because according to you everything was meticulously planned. Don't confuse what maybe possible in your mind with that's what had to have happened because it was possible. Let apply that logic to every conspiracy theory about the West neo-cons hate. Hey, it's possible therefore it must be true. It's possible South Korea staged the sinking of the Cheonan and framed North Korea, therefore it had to have happened that way.

Cool it, AssasinMace.

There is almost no way he could've aimed for Russia IMO. The distance to get to Vladivostok is the same if not longer than trying to get to Seoul. The Chinese/DPRK border is mighty long and he would be starting from the wrong end of the border to fly for Russia.

There're a couple of points that I think you missed:
-Sinuiju and its airfield is up against the border, so while a MiG-21 would've easily picked up on radar, chances are the radar operator wouldn't have suspected the plane in the first place until it was obvious the plane was off course later.
-And assuming it was cruising at 550 mph (~880 km/h), it would've easily been able to cover the 200km it went before PLA fighters were able to reach the MiG.
-Also, machines degrade and eat gas as they age. Since these jets are old and ill-maintained, I'd assume that they would eat fuel up a lot faster than expected, A/B on or not. These jets doesn't have the fuel in the first place.

I can't imagine this as anything other than a defection. I mean, what else could it have been? If it was some sort of secret mission, I'd think they'd rather have the pilot cross the bridge into Dandong. And if a plane was needed, the pilot could've just flew into next door Dandong. The distance wouldn't be a factor if this wasn't a defection case.

The flight path was awfully straight and close to Shenyang.
What's interesting is that he didn't fly to Dalian, which would be about the same distance.

Cool what? I'm just following what he argued. If it looks confusing.... that's how his points were going all over the place.