New Richard Fisher article

The article is a little long to be posted here. I have to say that this article is extremely extremely up to date with pla progress. In fact, he even referred to the latest article of China's ambition with Carriers and the latest JDW article that mentionned An-70 with China (apparently, Antonov is marketting a version with 50-60 tonne capacity to China).

Either way, I'm convinced that he is reading many of the online forum. I do find it kind of flattering, but I must say the following to Mr. Fisher if he is reading:

While I do appreciate the amount of effort that you put into watching China's progress, I do think that it is time to stop drumming up the China threat idea. It really is not beneficial to either country to treat each other as the main enemy. Many of us are reading/posting on these forum due to our hope that China's military can grow to a point that will officially put it in the big boys club. I'm sure China's wish for a stronger military is not to surpass US, but rather to be sufficiently impressive for a nation of its size. I think we can all see that China's navy needs a lot of help before it can even be compared to the Japanese ones. It's not a surprise that it has been expanding at such a rate, since it did not have much to begin with. In summary, it really is not as scary as certain people have suggested. I (and I'm sure others on this board) do hope that you look at China's growth from more of an understanding perspective rather than just a fear perspective.

Thank you

I wouldn't be surprised if he's browsing around here
Only major Chinese military related forums in english are CDF, CMF, and SDF.
Notice this picture he has?

So how many pictures do you think he nagged off the net?

tphuang said:

In summary, it really is not as scary as certain people have suggested. I (and I'm sure others on this board) do hope that you look at China's growth from more of an understanding perspective rather than just a fear perspective.

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I look at Mr. Fisher's writing with a raised eyebrow myself. But I don't believe he is pushing his ideas from a "fear" angle. It's more of a heads-up to what may be happening over on the other side of the Pacific. It's hard to misinterpret 700 SRBM's in deployment and more and more being built year after year. Those types of missiles are purely offensive in nature. It's not fear...but preparedness. If China wishes to be viewed as a rising "peaceful" power, this ain't the way of doing it. I myself don't "fear" China. And I see any nation improving it's economy and technology as a good thing, including China. But it's always smart to gauge someone's intentions by how they posture themselves. China could do alot to discredit the "China threat" by their own actions.

An awesome article. Very uptodate and quite accurate. It's amazing how author went through the entire length and breadth of PRC's military modernization and expanison to very fine details.

I would however beg to disagree with the time frame when PRC will become as capable as to challenge US presence by matching it's capability in most spheres of military technology.(author suggetsing in most cases that most revolutionary developments will be completed from 2010-2015 period where as i think the range should be more like 2015-2020)

tphuang said:

While I do appreciate the amount of effort that you put into watching China's progress, I do think that it is time to stop drumming up the China threat idea. It really is not beneficial to either country to treat each other as the main enemy. Many of us are reading/posting on these forum due to our hope that China's military can grow to a point that will officially put it in the big boys club.........Thank you

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Tp,
lol, what was that bro?? Come on dude you have to understand the the author is just a messenger, he is not the one who makes policy. He is just giving how things are and will become in near future. There is nothing legtimate/illegtimate about military/political affairs at global level. China has the will, potential and courage to go to "big boys club". Noone's gonna give it to China, but they will accept it once China makes it to the club. Noone should have any illusions that China's rise will be not be achieved at the expense of US influence in the region. The day US will realize China could not be contained and the "Contain China policy" is useless, it will engage China at a different level in a more non-confrontational manner.

You are pretty much barking up the wrong tree . The key lies with China and not West anymore. That really doesn't mean WAR. Just more influence and respect for China.

Looking at the article he obviously has taken pictures from the forums.

crobato said:

Looking at the article he obviously has taken pictures from the forums.

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It's probably the best place to look for pictures when looking for Chinese military pictures. Anyway, it is interesting to note that the YJ-62 anti-ship missile has a range of 300+ km. I thought the max range was about 250 km.

crazyinsane105 said:

It's probably the best place to look for pictures when looking for Chinese military pictures. Anyway, it is interesting to note that the YJ-62 anti-ship missile has a range of 300+ km. I thought the max range was about 250 km.

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If i am not wrong that would bethe air launched version with 300+ range. Also i don't think author was trying to be factually accurate with the numbers. More like giving an accuarte idea of capabilities.

P.S: Ask Tphuang i guess he is not too sure of all the data on Sinodefence regarding all missiles in YJ series. Tp any comments??

lol, I'm not angry at Richard Fisher or anything like that. I actually do admire his work. It's hard to get that much information on Chinese military from outside of China. I just get a sense from his past article that he contributes to quite a bit to this China threat thing. I've read quite a few articles from arizonarepublic, uscc. In fairness, he does not actually overestimate the performance of the Chinese systems, but rather he uses alarming tone if the Chinese systems approach American ones in someway. Anyhow, I don't want to get too much into the political stuff, so we will just have to agree to disagree on that.

As for YJ-62, it was just mentionned on JDW and AWST that the export version's range is 280 KM. Logic would dictate that the domestic version has a 300+ KM range, because the export range is limited due to MTCR (300KM range and 500kg warhead I believe)

R. Fisher - Why exactly Moscow continues to sell to China is a difficult question to answer, but money alone most likely does not suffice.

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Probably the fear of the U.S. military.:coffee:

1. The U.S. spends 400 billion USD on defense this year.
2. The U.S. conquered Iraq in 3 weeks.
3. The U.S. dropped 54,000 tons of bombs on Fallujah(Iraq).

funniest quote
"Denied the Israeli-Russian A-50/Phalcon AWACS by Washington in 2000, China has somehow succeeded in producing three such AWACS that may have the same performance characteristics as the Israeli Phalcon radar"

Some really interesting parts from the article.
1. "For the next several years there could be a shift back to aerospace, as Russia delivers 32 Ilyushin Il-76 heavy transports and 6 Il-78M tanker aircraft,"
- this is really interesting. Some articles have claimed the split to be 30/8 and others have said 34/4. This is the first place that mentionned 32/6
2. "The PLA’s new PL-12 active guided air-to-air missile uses some version of the Agat 9B-124BE active radar seeker, the latest version of which has a 40km target lock-on range, which is very competitive with the U.S. AIM-120 AMRAAM. Source: RD Fisher"
- hmm, I remember a big argument on AFM a while back on this. Does he have some additional proof that PL-12 really is using 9B-124BE
- he also added the datalink part in the comparison table
3. "China has just started producing, or is about to start making advance active phased array radar for AWACS, ships and fighters, new modern turbofan engines, stealth technologies, and maneuverable and terminally-guided warheads for ballistic missiles"
- wow, that's a huge claim for the about to start category
- AESA for fighters, stealth technologies (up until now, most Westerners would put that as still studying for China)
4. "While the U.S. Navy benefits from its over 70 years of constant practice and employment of effective carrier aviation, it is nonetheless a major shock that China’s carrier fleet could commence with combat capabilities that could neutralize those of the U.S. Navy in some scenarios."
- this is definitely overhyping this potential Chinese carrier fleet that as of now does not even exist
5. "This agreement helped contribute to China’s ability to launch their first 50kg microsatellite in 2000 and its first 20kg nanosat in 2004. China is also developing its MS-1, a 70kg communication satellite with one transponder.[32] In the event Chinese communication satellites are attacked it could launch a large number of MS-1 comsats that would be much more difficult to detect. The KS series of mobile solid fueled space launch vehicles, based on MRBMs and ICBMs, has been developed just to launch new micro and nanosats. In addition, these micro and nanosatellites could be adopted as direct assent anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons for launch on the same KS series launchers."
- so I need a little help here. how useful are these nanosat in a real war scenario. So, it he basically saying that turning off galileo, shooting down beidou would not stop Chinese weapon systems from getting satellite guidance?
6. "Even though Israel apparently halted is transfer of Phalcon airborn active phased array radar technology in 2000, the PLA has built three AWACS aircraft that look nearly the same as the A-50/Phalcon. Asian sources suggest that the radar signals from this aircraft approximate those from a Phalcon-like radar."
- wow, maybe the Israelis did a lot more extra-curricular activity behind the scenes after the phalcon deal was cancelled.
7. submarine front
- he is speculating again that the Chinese are getting the latest Russian SSN and SSBN technology for 093 and 094.
- on yuan, Rubin has actually repeatedly stated on kanwa the differences between amur and yuan that would make amur more stealthy