New J-10 thread II

Status
Not open for further replies.

fishhead

Banned Idiot
Actually the article didn't say anything. I believe it was clear taken out of original proper time context. The page is just reprinting an old article. Note the text, googled.

crobato, obviously, you don't understand how Chinese system works. The news was posted in Jan 2007.

This is the first time that "production certification" was mentioned regarding to WS-9. For WS-10a, that term hasn't been mentioned anywhere yet, no matter how you google it.
 

fishhead

Banned Idiot
you obviously have missed all of the AVIC1 articles that stated WS-10A is in mass production right now. You can't compare WS-10A to WS-9, they have completely different priorities.

I dispute that. It's in production but not in "mass production".

Even current deployed J-10 doesn't have it. And J-11 probably just starts to go to formal production. Where are those from "mass production" going?
 

fishhead

Banned Idiot
Regarding to WS-9 production certification, this article is the one with the most credit. It's from the Chinese Test Flight Institute, posted on Dec 30, 2006, roughly same as the first one, but with more detail.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

zyun8288

Junior Member
From the recent news, we can see clearly that J-10, or WS-10a are just transitional goals for PLAAF. The new airplanes are coming from the drawing board(there are other speculations as well), same improvement probably from the engine as well.

I have some doubt that the current configuration of J-10 or WS-10a will go to mass production. The engine, WS-10a needs at least 3-5 years to get mutured for that. The Chinese real goal at least should be the improved version of WS-10a that powers the J-10 Mod version airplane with some kind of stealth feature.

It's quite prudent for them just do small batch production, to solve all the problem encounted for the brand new versions of engine and airplane, not unexpectedly. In 1970s, when China rushed to mass produce the new turbo engines, the problem of broken blade merged from that and forced to ground the whole airplane fleet. They couldn't solve the problem in the short time and the case went up finally to Chinese prime minister, Zhou Enlai. They definitely learned something from that.
One thing you should notice is that, after the cold war, most if not all fighter planes do not have large production numbers. Instead, they all have small batch productions. It's the same case with J10. There are J10 batch 00 to 02, then J10 block I (or A) etc.... None of those configurations got a large/mass production. This is the norm rather than transition. in the next decade to come, there will be more variants of J10s coming but that doesn't mean J10 is transitional and PLAAF is aiming something else. IMHO, China's 4th gen fighter won't be ready before 2020. J10 and J11 still has couple of decades lives.
 

fishhead

Banned Idiot
One thing you should notice is that, after the cold war, most if not all fighter planes do not have large production numbers. Instead, they all have small batch productions. It's the same case with J10. There are J10 batch 00 to 02, then J10 block I (or A) etc.... None of those configurations got a large/mass production. This is the norm rather than transition. in the next decade to come, there will be more variants of J10s coming but that doesn't mean J10 is transitional and PLAAF is aiming something else. IMHO, China's 4th gen fighter won't be ready before 2020. J10 and J11 still has couple of decades lives.

The J10 production rate is no where near F16 at its peak, no where near planed JSF rate. It's little bit better than F22. According to this rate (50/yr), it will take 20 years to make 1000 J10, PLAAF can take a long vacation then.

The rational estimate should put this kind of production at 300-500/yr, to meet PLAAF's requirement. CAC's original design capability is 2 J7/day.

What is called "mass production" hasn't come yet, wait 5 years to see.
 

zyun8288

Junior Member
The J10 production rate is no where near F16 at its peak, no where near planed JSF rate. It's little bit better than F22. According to this rate (50/yr), it will take 20 years to make 1000 J10, PLAAF can take a long vacation then.

The rational estimate should put this kind of production at 300-500/yr, to meet PLAAF's requirement. CAC's original design capability is 2 J7/day.

What is called "mass production" hasn't come yet, wait 5 years to see.

Oh well, if 300-500/yr is your standard of mass production, you can be sured that you won't see it happening to any fighter plane in 21st century, unless WWIII is started.

IMHO, the upper limit of J10 (all variants included) production is 800 panning 15 years.
 

fishhead

Banned Idiot
Oh well, if 300-500/yr is your standard of mass production, you can be sured that you won't see it happening to any fighter plane in 21st century, unless WWIII is started.

IMHO, the upper limit of J10 (all variants included) production is 800 panning 15 years.

That's exactly why I said J10 is not what PLAAF really wants for its front line fighters. That has no hope to match US F22/JSF combined force soon coming, not engouh even for IAF in next 15 years.

Chinese're gearing up for the next generation aircrafts, J10 is only the transitional goal. The mass production will come from that.
 

Scratch

Captain
The J-10 program now goes for twenty years, they should start fielding an outcome to see what they've got.Some time ago I think tphuang mentioned an article here of a project (supposedly J-10) to have finalized and applied modifications. But that's only a matured J-10 IMO, and not a follow on. If the changes are rather big, it will again some time -years- to evaluate the aircraft. Once again, at a certain point you must field what you currently have and evaluate it on a bigger scale in active duty units.

If J-10 is only a stopgap meassure it's a really a waste of resources, IMO.
And if the follow on from it is someting that will counter raptors, it will: 1.) take much longer than five years until mass production starts 2.) production rates will still be significantly less than 300/year IMO. I very much agree with zyun8288 here.
 

fishhead

Banned Idiot
If J-10 is only a stopgap meassure it's a really a waste of resources

Not at all. J-10 is the first airplane that uses the home grown modern design/manufacturing technology in China, spare S-27 which is transfered. It's still efficient to handle 90% of the threat Chinese faces, excluding USAF.

So relative large number will be produced, for combat purpose and for muturing production technology purpose. The next generation fighters will grow from it using the same facilities and infrastructures, by same engineers. The production/design of J-10 will greatly accelerate the development of Chinese 5th aircrafts.

If you jump directly to 5th fighters, you end up with LCA.
 

Scratch

Captain
Not at all. J-10 is the first airplane that uses the home grown modern design/manufacturing technology in China, spare S-27 which is transfered. It's still efficient to handle 90% of the threat Chinese faces, excluding USAF.

So relative large number will be produced, for combat purpose and for muturing production technology purpose. The next generation fighters will grow from it using the same facilities and infrastructures, by same engineers. The production/design of J-10 will greatly accelerate the development of Chinese 5th aircrafts.

Yes, I quiet agree witht that. But then, IMO, J-10 isn't a transitional aircraft. In this case it should be produced in numbers great enough to get local manufactures used to build and further develop modern aircraft.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top