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voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
That is a huge win for SpaceX and validation of their development model. I think it also recognizes that SpaceX is the world leader in rocket design and are pushing the boundaries of what is possible. They seem to have purpose beyond sending objects in LEO in the most profitable manner, but actually want to push human space flight forward in a major way.
Facts. SpaceX is the most advanced rocket company in the world right now. It surpasses government agencies (China, US, EU) and private enterprises.

Their new engine, called Raptor, is revolutionary and it is the first engine of its kind.

Plus lets not forget their Starship program. If SpaceX manages to build this huge rocket, China military space arm is toast. The US Space Force is salivating to the capabilities that Starship can offer them.

Incredible job from SpaceX, hopefully China can someday have its own Elon Musk to push the frontier of technological development
 

Andy1974

New Member
Registered Member
Trying to land it in foggy weather was a baffling idea. You can't track the rocket/position easily when there is inclement weather. If the idea is to gain as much data possible they should've waited a few days for the fog to clear up.
It was because of US regulations and the fact that they had an observer there, not for technical reasons.
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
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The Russians are stating they will be withdrawing from the ISS starting in 2025. However, it should be noted: the Russians make comments like this historically when they want to renegotiate something with ISS.

Keith Cowing is something of a gadfly for NASA, but he does point out a lot of less than stellar bits there. He's been something of a journalist in the arena since the 90s:

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Well considering that the weakest link in the ISS is the Russian Segment these days. The Zvezda module is at the end of its life. Suffering repeated failures both stress fractures and system failures including life support, Likely to be followed soon after by more of the segment modules. A pressing question is what will and WILL sooner rather than later replace those modules as they fail. Zvezda Is both the Life support hub and the booster segment used for independent orbital stabilization burns.
With The Crewed dragon docking (which can also reboost) , the Russian Soyuz seats no longer being brought and the increasing interest in commercial operations and modules on ISS vs a Russian specs program that is more interested in state operations it’s actually logical that there investment would end sooner rather that later.
 

anzha

Junior Member
Registered Member
Well considering that the weakest link in the ISS is the Russian Segment these days. The Zvezda module is at the end of its life. Suffering repeated failures both stress fractures and system failures including life support, Likely to be followed soon after by more of the segment modules. A pressing question is what will and WILL sooner rather than later replace those modules as they fail. Zvezda Is both the Life support hub and the booster segment used for independent orbital stabilization burns.

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As expected.

With The Crewed dragon docking (which can also reboost) , the Russian Soyuz seats no longer being brought and the increasing interest in commercial operations and modules on ISS vs a Russian specs program that is more interested in state operations it’s actually logical that there investment would end sooner rather that later.

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Until Boeing gets Starliner completely operational, I expect NASA to keep a finger in the Soyuz flights. Having multiple ways to orbit is now pretty much policy.
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
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As expected.



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Until Boeing gets Starliner completely operational, I expect NASA to keep a finger in the Soyuz flights. Having multiple ways to orbit is now pretty much policy.
That seat was likely the last. It had to be negotiated separately from the previous existing block. Any additional would depend on two factors first the launch schedule which for Soyuz is October 5 MS19, next open seats. Finally the price point. The Russians are charging a ton of money per seat. But as you said They want a back up option. Starliner is supposed to get another shot in December. But another Dragon Crew will go up before that.

Also I had forgotten the long long long long overdue Nauka model is supposed to finally launch for the Russian segment this July. Only been delayed 14 years since its original planed launch in 07. So long one wonders if they might not be forced to delay for another decade as half its systems go past warranty date again.
 

panzerfeist1

New Member
Registered Member
In the end the real winner is NASA because I am sure they will highly encourage Roscosmos and Space X competing with new designs to lower costs.

Space X Chart

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Rocket designs that will compete with Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy

Amur(2026)

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Angara-A5M(2024)

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By launching two Amur rockets you get a 44 million dollar cost with re-usable rockets and a payload to LEO with 21,000 kg. The A5M proposes 57 million dollars per launch and is estimated with a payload to LEO to be more than 27.5 tons. The Amur rocket has received enough attention to get a diss from Elon Musk tweet and its re-usability is more than 100 times as well. The Proton-M 1st flight was in 2001 and nothing about its design has changed. By the way the Re-usable Falcon 9 is in fact the block 5 version which began its flight in 11, May 2018 and that is cutting it close in terms of charging costs to NASA by 3 million dollars less and all we did was just wake them up to come up with something better. Proton-M isn't Re-usable so we can still say it is cheaper and carries a little more payload than the Falcon 9 expendable. 16,800 kg to be fair is the payload to LEO for falcon-9 re-usable and in terms of offering more payload for less the cost either rocket design might interest NASA. Than Musk is going to have to come up with a cheaper design.

Falcon Heavy Semi Re-usable there is no such thing, so that's another error in the chart besides the payload weight. Meaning it is all expendable for 150 million or go 90 million dollars if you were to recover all three but instead of 64 tons you get 30 tons to LEO. I have not seen a 95 million dollar launch the center core cannot be recoverable while upper two stages can be unless that is what they mean but I have not seen any price estimates that have said this on any source. All the launch schedule contracts I see are currently above 90 million dollars for the falcon heavy. Even if the Angara-5VM is 3 tons less heavier being a recovery option the cost difference would be between selling the new Angara for 57 million compared to 90 million dollars and up. You can even rake up 3 Amur rocket launches for 66 million dollars to give a 31.5 ton payload to LEO.


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The Krylo-SV is expected to fly this year or next year which launches 600 kg payload to orbit and as you expect from the image it would glide back to earth. The current recoverable rockets use half the fuel to launch payload into orbit and the other half of the fuel to land vertically back to earth. But fly wings do need need fuel they just glide back on a runway meaning more money would be saved. The Krylo-SV can introduce options for heavier payload rockets to have glide wing features since Russia has created a new design bureau to work on these kinds of rockets.


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The only thing missing on that image is the 140 ton Don Rocket. So while Space X did give launch estimates for Falcon 9 and Heavy I wonder what costs he would give of Starship launch contracts for heavy payloads. Rogozin according to Wikipedia which I do not know how accurate it is said the Yenisei would be 4 times cheaper than the SLS which I do not know which costs he compared since they gave estimates for SLS from 500 million to 1 billion dollars. Currently the Chinese, Russia and U.S. have plans of creating Lunar stations on the Moon. So either Roscosmos or Space X will compete with each other to definitely get contracts with either NASA or even the Chinese depending on the Long March 9 costs.

Some user responded back to me saying this at another forum after I made that response, "It was covered here before, but the sub $100,000,000 launch prices claimed by Space-X are BS. They do not count direct cost offsets from the US government.
And that is not the same thing as Roscosmos and the associated subcontractors being government run. They operate on cost recovery and not on accounting
scams. I posted a video by Ostashko on the real cost to send the two austronauts to space a few months ago but can't find it now."


Does anyone know what he is talking about? I responded back to him and hopefully he will find me that video.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Facts. SpaceX is the most advanced rocket company in the world right now. It surpasses government agencies (China, US, EU) and private enterprises.

Their new engine, called Raptor, is revolutionary and it is the first engine of its kind.

Plus lets not forget their Starship program. If SpaceX manages to build this huge rocket, China military space arm is toast. The US Space Force is salivating to the capabilities that Starship can offer them.

Incredible job from SpaceX, hopefully China can someday have its own Elon Musk to push the frontier of technological development
Land on the dark side of the moon first (like China did) than we can talk about "push the frontier of technological development".
 

anzha

Junior Member
Registered Member
The delayed Nauka module appears to have passed its pressure leak testing. That's one of the steps before being launched to the ISS.

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