Myanmar/Burma civil conflict

I am really surprised I wasnt able to find a thread on this very significant piece of news on here; so I'll start one myself.

Shooting started 3 days ago that broke an uneasy cease fire between the Burmese Army and the Kokang.
See .

Since then, the fighting has escalated and some elements of it even spread into the Chinese side of the border.
See and

There's recent news coming through today indicating the fighting is starting to subside slowly. See .

The Kokang are ethnic Han Chinese have have enjoy support and aid from China for decades. The Kokang Army is formed by an alliance between the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), United Wa State Army (UWSA), National Democratic Alliance Army-Eastern Shan State (NDAA) and the Shan State Army (SSA). Needless to say, this fresh outbreak of violence has put China in a very awkward position as China needs the Burmese Junta for geopolitical and energy reasons.

The timing of start of shooting by Myanmar Army is also very interesting, just as China is about to celebrate it's 60th anniversary of Communism. There is absolutely no coincidence here as "The Party's party" effectively ties China's hands in terms of she can do.

Already around 30,000 (reported) refugees have fled across the border into China to escape the fighting. How China handles this will be a true test of Hu Jingtao's foregin policy skill.
I personally do not think China will intervene, what does our other members think?

Fleeing fighters say Myanmar crushed border enclave

NANSAN, China (Reuters) - Men who said they had been fighting Myanmar government troops in fierce battles over recent days streamed into China on Sunday, saying their long-autonomous enclave had fallen and its future was in doubt.

The clusters of men, weary and sometimes clutching a few belongings, described widespread bloodshed in the Kokang ethnic enclave in northeast Myanmar after government troops moved in, seeking to dislodge local rulers and their militia who have long controlled this mountainous terrain next to China.

Some said the Kokang militia had been decisively defeated, a turn that will present Myanmar and China with tricky choices on how to govern the enclave and deal with the tens of thousands of residents who have fled to neighboring Yunnan province in China.

"The Kokang army has collapsed. We're all on the run," said Chen Bo, a refugee who arrived from Myanmar at the Chinese border town of Nansan on Sunday.
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Chen said he was a Chinese national who had been fighting for the Kokang forces for money. He pulled up his shirt to show what appeared to be a bullet graze on his deeply tanned back.

"People may return to Kokang, but there'll have to be the right conditions, there'll have to be negotiations so we feel safe," said Chen, a rake-thin man in his thirties.

"The Myanmar army had too much strength and won, but running Kokang is very difficult."

Many of the fleeing men said they escaped on Saturday after the latest spasm of gunfights in Kokang, joining the many refugees in Nansan and other refugee collection points in Yunnan.

Kokang has long served as a freewheeling buffer zone between China and Myanmar, and drug trafficking and gambling have long underpinned the enclave's economy. Most of its predominantly ethnic Chinese residents can speak Mandarin.

"We're soldiers from the Kokang army. But we had to give up. The fighting was too much," said Xiong Zhaole, walking, head bowed, with about six other men along a muddy mountain road near a border crossing. "We were trying to defend our people, but the Myanmar troops were pushing us back."

Xiong said he and his companions had been told by Chinese soldiers who received them at the border to swap their army greens for blue outfits, abandon any plans to fight and find somewhere to stay with relatives or in refugee camps.

The battle erupted after the Myanmar military moved into the area as part of efforts to ensure ethnic groups participate in elections next year, according to reports by Chinese media and Myanmar exile groups.

One of those groups, the U.S. Campaign for Burma, said in a statement early on Sunday that about 700 troops from the Kokang militia had fled to China and surrendered their weapons.

A BRITTLE BALANCE

The overrunning of Kokang by Myanmar government forces will open up questions about the government's relations with other powerful ethnic groups along the mountainous border with China.

China is one of neighbor Myanmar's few diplomatic backers and has deflected pressure from Western governments over the military government's tough steps against protesters and pro-democracy campaigners.

But the many thousands of refugees highlight the brittle balance Beijing has sought between working with the Myanmar government and accommodating the forces who have long run Kokang.
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"I think ultimately the future of Kokang will have to be solved through negotiations, not war," He Shengda, an expert on Myanmar at the Yunnan Academy of Social Sciences, told Reuters.

He cited the example of a 1989 ceasefire agreement over control of the enclave.

"If the fighting continues, this could damage the stability of other, bigger border regions in Myanmar, and we certainly don't want to see that."

China's official Xinhua news agency reported that Myanmar had "apologized for Chinese casualties" in the fighting. The report also said refugees had begun to return from China to Myanmar on Sunday after fighting died down.

But many of the refugees interviewed by Reuters said they would be afraid to return home with the Myanmar army in control.

That could leave Beijing with many displaced and angry Myanmar nationals to cope with in this remote hill country. The Chinese government has not officially called them refugees.

"We want (ethnic) Chinese people to run us. We're scared of the Myanmar army and now they have the upper hand," said Li Deming, a native of Kokang who had tramped into Nansan, where refugees are crowded into tents and half-completed buildings.

Some called the Myanmar troops ruthless marauders.

"We've heard of killings by the Myanmar army, of many people killed, and decided we had to escape," said Jiang Zhengchi, a 42-year-old native of Kokang who had fled to Nansan on Sunday.

"If Myanmar takes control (of Kokang), I don't know if we can go back. But my land and everything are there. It's our land."

Far from all the refugees sympathized with the local militia. Some described Kokang as a lawless den of drugs and gambling.

"Kokang is run by warlords, and warlords and drugs are like twins, so that's how Kokang works," said one refugee in the main refugee camp in Nansan. He could not give his name, because the interview was interrupted by Chinese officials.

A group of Han Chinese migrated to Kokang during Ming Dynasty few hundred years ago. The British occupied this territory in 19 century and incorporated it into Burma.

The local population and warlord is Han Chinese. Since the conflict is deemed internal affairs of Myamar, I don't think China will intervent militarily. Drug dealings, gambling and prostitution contributed to major local income. However, China has called Myamar junta for safe guarding of Chnese nationals in Kokang.

It was reported today that a shell crashed into Chinese territory, killing one and injured several people.

So far there's no photos of the fighting or troop movements just photos of refugees fleeing to the PRC...

Chinese paramilitary police look on while on duty at a temporary refugee camp set up by the Chinese government to house Myanmar refugees in Nansan in southwestern China's Yunnan province, Saturday, Aug. 29, 2009. Thousands of refugees have fled across the Chinese border to escape fighting between government troops and ethnic militia in Myanmar's Kokang region. (AP)

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Chinese paramilitary policemen stand guard at a temporary shelter area for Myanmar's refugees at the border town of Nansan, China's Yunnan province, August 29, 2009. Fresh fighting in northeast Myanmar erupted on Saturday morning, after days of clashes that killed at least one person on Chinese territory and sent dozens of wounded to hospitals along the Chinese border. Tens of thousands have fled to the border town of Nansan in China's Yunnan province this month after clashes in Kokang in Myanmar's Shan state, following the deployment of Myanmar government troops in the area. (Reuters)

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Refugees who fled Kokang in Myanmar are seen at a temporary refugee center in the Chinese border town of Nansan in southern China's Yunnan province Saturday Aug. 29, 2009. Fresh fighting erupted early Saturday in northeastern Myanmar after days of clashes between government troops and ethnic rebels drove tens of thousands of people into China. Up to 30,000 people have fled into China from Myanmar's Kokang region, according to reports received by the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees. (AP Photo)

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Refugees from Kokang in Myanmar's Shan State show Chinese soldiers their identification certificates issued by the Chinese authorities at their temporary housing area, where they were placed by the authorities after arriving at Nansan town in Zhenkang County in Yunnan province August 25, 2009. Tension between Myanmar government troops and an armed ethnic group has sparked an exodus of thousands of people into China from northeastern Myanmar, activists and witnesses said on Wednesday. Picture taken August 25, 2009.

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Myanmar says 26 forces, 8 rebels killed at border

YANGON, Myanmar — The Myanmar junta has ended a news blackout about clashes with ethnic rebels near the China border, saying three days of fighting killed 26 government forces and at least eight rebels.

A government announcement read aloud on state-run TV news broadcasts said the fighting had ended. It showed still photographs of police corpses and Kokang people fleeing.

The Sunday evening announcement said "the region has now regained peace."

It said fighting killed 26 junta soldiers and police and left 47 wounded. The announcement said eight bodies of Kokang rebels were found and 600 pieces of weapons seized.

There was no way to independently verify the figures.

Looks like the fighting stopped before it even began, 3 days of fire exchange in all. The Wa reinforcements did not even partake in the fighting. Some sources quote the Kokang force as numbering in the thousands, and yet only 8 had died? I smell a morale problem in Peng's army.

Government forces pressed to the border.

A week ago, one of Myanmar’s most powerful ethnic armed alliances launched a coordinated attack on a dozen military outposts in northern Shan State, along the country’s eastern border with China.

Code-named Operation 1027, the plan is to assert and defend territory against Myanmar military incursions, eradicate “oppressive military dictatorship”, and combat online fraud along the border, according to a statement from its organisers, the Three Brotherhood Alliance.

Made up of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta’Ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Arakan Army (AA), the alliance is part of a coalition of seven ethnic armed organisations which maintain close ties with China and have bases or territories near the country’s border.

A particular target of the operation is the cyber-scamming industry that has

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in autonomous militarised zones on Myanmar’s eastern border since the February 2021 military coup, generating billions of dollars for Chinese gangs working in collaboration with the Myanmar military, its proxies and other armed groups.

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MNDAA using drones.

Luke Warmwar said:

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I am not familiar with the dyanamics of the insurgencies in Myanmar. It seems to me there are Ethnic groups that are pro-Chinese or have huge populations that are also in China in the border regions of Myanmar. And these groups are somehow supported by China?

But I know that Myanmar Junta govt is also supported by China. And the anti-coup so called Myanmar Pro-US pro-democracy force or NUG is heavily anti-China and part of "Milk Tea Alliance". So, doesn't that means China supporting these insurgencies is going to strengthen the anti-China forces in Myanmar?

I am just confused about the dynamics of this war. Who is on who's side?