Modern Carrier Battle Group..Strategies and Tactics

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

There has not been so much as one verifiable operational test of a DF-21. Not one. When they launch them far out to sea at stationary and then moving targets the US Navy and the world will know...we will detect it and "see" it happen. Until then I will think there is nothing more to this than feint, bait, switch, and using "reports" of a weapon to create the illusion that the weapon is real in an effort to change the thinking of naval planners and particularly politicians on this side.

I have no doubt that they are researching something...but they are not far enough along to have live fire tests.

Even if they ever do, the US has already operationally tested defenses against incoming ballistic missiles. BMD is becoming a reality on AEGIS vessels, so the "new" weapon is playing against a growing and proven strength of AEGIS in any case.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

When discussing 'Whether the coming of ASBM will mean the end of the Carrier age?', it refer to some kind of possibility. The same tactics can also be applied by the US against other countries' air carriers. Only the other countries' air carriers will be more vulnerable than those of the US because without sufficient AEGIS protectioin.
If previous estimation is reasonable, then the technologies similar to that of Pershing II can pose threat to large navy vessels.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

bd popeye said:

Huh?

Theories are nice. But you still have to prove them. I'm not aware of a DF-21 hitting a moving target at sea.

Click to expand...

A lot of the discussion in this thread seems to revolve around a US CBG just cruising around the big ocean minding it's own business and getting jumped on by a DF21 lobbed at it by those sneaky Chinese Pearl Harbor Style.

What if the DF21 is a second strike weapon when all those F18's swarm in to attack or, to be unbiased, defend, eventually they'll have to go back to the carrier and land, so getting a fix on the location of the carrier by tracking the returning aircraft and if there's reasonable details of prevailing weather direction is it not conceivable that both the location and direction of travel of the carrier can be determined?

Not saying it's going to be easy or straight forward to drop a warhead on a moving carrier just that in order to retrieve it's aircraft a carrier goes through a series of prescribed steps which acts to reduce the variability of it's manoeuvre and hence reduce the degree of difficulty therefore probability of a hit.

The DF21 seems to be just one aspect of a multi faceted approach to neutralise a CBG, but coupled with long range SSM, supersonic strike aircraft, missile armed fast attack craft and submarines? Each component by itself would be insufficient but together they should significantly reduce the odds of survival! What if the purpose of the DF-21's are not to directly hit a carrier but to drive it towards lurking subs. After all it's the theoretical probability that the carrier can be sunk that's important as a deterrent effect not the fact that one wakes up one morning and decides to actually sink one.

I don't believe it's the end of the age of the carrier but it's probably had it's zenith.

Who knows may be one of the first jobs for the refurb'ed Varyag is not to act as a strike carrier but as a target! When the 2nd artillery starts lobbing dummy warheads whilst the Varyag's aircrew are practising deck landings that's probably the time to get worried!

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

hkbc said:

A lot of the discussion in this thread seems to revolve around a US CBG just cruising around the big ocean minding it's own business and getting jumped on by a DF21 lobbed at it by those sneaky Chinese Pearl Harbor Style.

What if the DF21 is a second strike weapon when all those F18's swarm in to attack or, to be unbiased, defend, eventually they'll have to go back to the carrier and land, so getting a fix on the location of the carrier by tracking the returning aircraft and if there's reasonable details of prevailing weather direction is it not conceivable that both the location and direction of travel of the carrier can be determined?

Not saying it's going to be easy or straight forward to drop a warhead on a moving carrier just that in order to retrieve it's aircraft a carrier goes through a series of prescribed steps which acts to reduce the variability of it's manoeuvre and hence reduce the degree of difficulty therefore probability of a hit.

The DF21 seems to be just one aspect of a multi faceted approach to neutralise a CBG, but coupled with long range SSM, supersonic strike aircraft, missile armed fast attack craft and submarines? Each component by itself would be insufficient but together they should significantly reduce the odds of survival! What if the purpose of the DF-21's are not to directly hit a carrier but to drive it towards lurking subs. After all it's the theoretical probability that the carrier can be sunk that's important as a deterrent effect not the fact that one wakes up one morning and decides to actually sink one.

I don't believe it's the end of the age of the carrier but it's probably had it's zenith.

Who knows may be one of the first jobs for the refurb'ed Varyag is not to act as a strike carrier but as a target! When the 2nd artillery starts lobbing dummy warheads whilst the Varyag's aircrew are practising deck landings that's probably the time to get worried!

Click to expand...

good points!

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

What if the DF21 is a second strike weapon when all those F18's swarm in to attack or, to be unbiased, defend, eventually they'll have to go back to the carrier and land, so getting a fix on the location of the carrier by tracking the returning aircraft and if there's reasonable details of prevailing weather direction is it not conceivable that both the location and direction of travel of the carrier can be determined?

Click to expand...

In war time wit the proper EMCOM conditions set an CSG is very difficult, very difficult to find.

There has not been so much as one verifiable operational test of a DF-21. Not one. When they launch them far out to sea at stationary and then moving targets the US Navy and the world will know...we will detect it and "see" it happen. Until then I will think there is nothing more to this than feint, bait, switch, and using "reports" of a weapon to create the illusion that the weapon is real in an effort to change the thinking of naval planners and particularly politicians on this side.

I have no doubt that they are researching something...but they are not far enough along to have live fire tests.

Even if they ever do, the US has already operationally tested defenses against incoming ballistic missiles. BMD is becoming a reality on AEGIS vessels, so the "new" weapon is playing against a growing and proven strength of AEGIS in any case.

Click to expand...

Did you fellows read this^^^? Jeff is posting the truth. Yes China probaly does have the DF-21. But who has ever seen it tested at sea?? Who??

The USN has no magical missiles that may or may not work.. or an "Aegis like" system. The USN has a working anti-missile system deployed and tested. It works.

I pray that there is never an confrontation of any kind between the US and PRC. I sincerely mean that.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

bd popeye said:

The USN has no magical missiles that may or may not work..

Click to expand...

Magic missile always works!

I pray that there is never an confrontation of any kind between the US and PRC. I sincerely mean that.

Click to expand...

I think that's what the US military is worried about. China has time on its side. It's not as if the DF-21 needs to be operational tomorrow. The fact that it eventually *will be* is what worries the US.

Also, while AEGIS systems work, they're not perfect, and can only handle a limited number of attacks. The worry here is that the PLA can produce an operational anti-carrier missile and mass produce it cheaply, enough to overwhelm the AEGIS system. After all, you can make missiles pretty cheaply while carriers cost billions of dollars, plus the cost of aircraft, and the human cost of personnel.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

hkbc said:

... eventually they'll have to go back to the carrier and land, so getting a fix on the location of the carrier by tracking the returning aircraft and if there's reasonable details of prevailing weather direction is it not conceivable that both the location and direction of travel of the carrier can be determined?

Not saying it's going to be easy or straight forward to drop a warhead on a moving carrier just that in order to retrieve it's aircraft a carrier goes through a series of prescribed steps which acts to reduce the variability of it's manoeuvre and hence reduce the degree of difficulty therefore probability of a hit.

The DF21 seems to be just one aspect of a multi faceted approach to neutralise a CBG, but coupled with long range SSM, supersonic strike aircraft, missile armed fast attack craft and submarines? Each component by itself would be insufficient but together they should significantly reduce the odds of survival! What if the purpose of the DF-21's are not to directly hit a carrier but to drive it towards lurking subs. After all it's the theoretical probability that the carrier can be sunk that's important as a deterrent effect not the fact that one wakes up one morning and decides to actually sink one.

I don't believe it's the end of the age of the carrier but it's probably had it's zenith.

Who knows may be one of the first jobs for the refurb'ed Varyag is not to act as a strike carrier but as a target! When the 2nd artillery starts lobbing dummy warheads whilst the Varyag's aircrew are practising deck landings that's probably the time to get worried!

Click to expand...

The US navy is well aware hat their aircraft might be tracked...but there are only certain ways to do that. ie. Another aircraft mainly.

The US takes great pains to egress areas in such a way as to confuse an enemy...and guard their back trail. They also do it in as much a non-emitting mode as possible.

It would be VERY difficult to track them back. Both the group leaving will make sure they are not followed, using their own aircraft to guard their backs, and evasive courses to confuse anyone tryoig.

Then, there will be a barrier CAP well out and away from the carrier to trap anyone that somehow finds a way to follow anyway.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

solarz said:

AEGIS ... can only handle a limited number of attacks. The worry here is that the PLA can produce an operational anti-carrier missile and mass produce it cheaply, enough to overwhelm the AEGIS system. After all, you can make missiles pretty cheaply while carriers cost billions of dollars, plus the cost of aircraft, and the human cost of personnel.

Click to expand...

The Soviets were prepared to launch REGIMENTS of Backfire and Bear bombers loaded up with very fast and powerful cruise missiles to try and overpower a AEGIS defended carrier strike group. They figured they would have to launch hundreds of missiles.

I believe individual DF-2s are going to cost more than those individual cruise missiles. It is a more sophisticated and much larger weapon.

It will be difficult for such a missile to come in barrage numbers and overwhelm AEGIS. They may try...and given enough time and money and practise, they may develop a system that has a chance. But they are a long long way from that and the US Navy is not a stationary target either.

By the time the DF-21 gets here in those numbers, the US Navy will have laser or particle energy weapons that will shoot at the speed of light. It's already being tested. The US Navy research center tested a Mega-watt laser just recently. tested it verifiably I might add out there for all to see. Not just talked about it.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

Jeff Head said:

The Soviets were prepared to launch REGIMENTS of Backfire and Bear bombers loaded up with very fast and powerful cruise missiles to try and overpower a AEGIS defended carrier strike group. They figured they would have to launch hundreds of missiles.

I believe individual DF-2s are going to cost more than those individual cruise missiles. It is a more sophisticated and much larger weapon.

It will be difficult for such a missile to come in barrage numbers and overwhelm AEGIS. They may try...and given enough time and money and practise, they may develop a system that has a chance. But they are a long long way from that and the US Navy is not a stationary target either.

By the time the DF-21 gets here in those numbers, the US Navy will have laser or particle energy weapons that will shoot at the speed of light. It's already being tested. The US Navy research center tested a Mega-watt laser just recently. tested it verifiably I might add out there for all to see. Not just talked about it.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

I don't disagree that the US is also moving ahead. However, I think what surprised the US military is the *speed* at which the PLA is moving ahead. DF-21, J-20, the Varyag, those are all milestones, and the US is starting to realize that in the not-too-far future, it will no longer be able to rely on its technological supremacy.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

solarz said:

I don't disagree that the US is also moving ahead. However, I think what surprised the US military is the *speed* at which the PLA is moving ahead. DF-21, J-20, the Varyag, those are all milestones, and the US is starting to realize that in the not-too-far future, it will no longer be able to rely on its technological supremacy.

Click to expand...

True some what... however the only one of those weapons even remotely close to deploying is the Varyag.

As for the DF-21. The missile more than likely is undergoing testing...Let's see some verified testing..then I shall believe.