Russia is helping China to offset and distract Western pressure on the European front. The US is trying to prematurely knock out Russia before China officially challenges the US. Its a preemptive strike by the US that is preparing for a near-future where the US might force China's hand on Taiwan
I don't know about that. It just looks like the US did their coup bullshit to Ukraine to wedge it from Russia in 2014 and now Russia isn't letting that play complete itself. The US clearly wants to knock Russia out but there is no sign of that at all.
I agree, Ukraine is worth jackshit. Rest I also agree with
k, and if Ukraine were left out of it and Russia unprovoked, Russia would hardly lift a finger to help China in a struggle against US dominance.
I meant from a holistic point of view. Economy, tech, fiscal revenue/expenditure, HDI etc. Overall, Russia is losing that race because it is slowly transitioning to a war economy.
There is no holistic point of view; economics is numbers and statistics and those things say that Russia is doing at least as well as the Euros in the mud pit with it. At the end of the day, you need energy to drive your economy; Russia has it and the EU doesn't.
Never underestimate how expensive wars are. I can guarantee you that for each day of war that Russia is in, it could easily build dozens of schools every day with all that spent money.
That guarantee is an exaggeration and not worth anything. Determine the costs of a day of war for Russia and what it costs to build just one dozen schools, and I don't mean putting desks in a rundown building for 90 kids. Show your math, not your "guarantee."
Similarly for the West, its much cheaper though because they aren't in a direct war, they are just (mostly) sending their outdated military equipment and once in a while give enough money so that Ukraine doesn't collapse.
Everything is more expensive in the West. While they send old and new equipment, so does Russia and Russia also has a chance to invigorate not only its stocks but also its military since there were clear problems that need to be sorted out before Russians can really be the combat race. Western nations are "richer" in made-up money. Russia is much much richer in real natural resources. In the long run, it cannot be defeated.
When viewed overall, Russia has to bear a lot more costs because Western countries are richer and thus easier to absorb these losses.
That's not what the economic numbers say, all "holistic-ness" aside.
A cow is still a cow. Poorer, yes. Too poor to help, no. Europeans still have a lot of fat for the US, no doubt about that
No, not all cows are equal. A fat healthy strong ox verus one shivering with visible ribs are not the same. The Euros must always offer help to the US; but is a bare nudge the only diversion they can afford from staying alive or is it heavy lifting? That is the difference between a healthy surging economy and one that is energy starved with people eating dogfood to get by.
. Basically the trade is, cripple Russia for decades, and the only cost you pay is a few points of lost GDP growth. Strategically, you take this trade every day of the week.
That's the trade the US wanted. That's not what they got, not even close. Right now it looks like they're about to trade GDP growth, dollar dominance, influence in the middle-east (and consequently of the largest oil producers in the world), a healthy European ally, for... basically nothing. Because a healthy unprovoked Russia had no interest in helping China fight the US anyway.
Even when you know that you have to deal with China.
That's the biggest miscalculation the US made.
The primary point is that the West sees Russia as a big helper for China, so from that POV it makes sense to knock out Russia even if they have to pay a price for that
Not really. Russia and China had a great relationship but it was basically nothing on top of good business and pleasant exchanges. Russia wouldn't stick its neck out for China in a big fight; they'd think of ways to profit from it. If the West needed to wedge Russia from China, they should have tried to integrate Russia into Europe. They f-ed up.
The question isn't about defeat. Its about draining Russia's national comprehensive strength. Was America seen as defeated militarily or economically in Afghanistan in the beginning? No. Now ask the same question today and everyone will say yes. I predict something similar will happen to Russia. Russia won't officially lose in Ukraine, but when viewed from a strategic point of view the Special Operation in Ukraine will be considered a strategic defeat for Russia in the future (10, 20 years later)
No, Russian comprehensive strength is not on the decline. Quite to the contrary, when a large nation with a lot of resources and depth but also corruption, is faced with a huge nation-wide challenge, it can emerge a much leaner and stronger force. Afghanistan wasn't a challenge to the US; it was only an opportunity for the bad to get worse and for the corrupt to take more because there was never any real threat to America. Ukraine is Russia's major challenge to the entire country as it essentially faces the whole West there. And unlike in Afghanistan where there was no real end game, Russia's clear endgame is territorial gain in Ukraine. 10, 20 years later, this will be viewed as another conflict in which Russia started in an anemic state but won in the end while invigorating its corrupted and sleeping powers.
And what's worse for the US is that this will result in a stronger Russia that is much much more pro-China and determined to do some pay-back damage if syching with China will give it the chance.
Dollar would had slipped either way, Ukraine war or not. The only difference is how quickly it would have had happened. Really, China's rise automatically means that the dollar would slip eventually.
Well, it all happened now and it all happened so quickly. What was the catalyst? US sanctions against Russia which most of the non-Western world disagree with and Switzerland saying it would back US/EU sanctions. Those things would not have happened without the Ukraine operation.
The real question is if accelerating dollar's decline is worth the price for the US for playing all these cards against Russia. My answer is no (even today), unless it drags the war and completely drain Russia's national comprehensive power. Anything other than that and i could consider this move a net loss of the US. Its all about the scale balance. As long as it becomes positive, all kinds of cards can be played. The only consideration is that the advantage you gain is worth the price you paid
Of course the answer is no. The dollar's status is what holds up the US economy; it can export its problems. Every country in the West that buys into US dominance has an economy that eats American sh-t and because of that, the US economy will always outperform them as it eats out of their bowls. And trade this for what? Russian collapse? LOLOL America traded it for an empty bucket of desperate Western hopes because Russia's just waking up and the West is already trying to get out.
True. As I said its all about if the advantage gained is worth the price paid. Nothing is sacred in this world, any price can be worth it it if you gain enough benefits. IMO the price and the gamble the West has taken with this war is big and for sure they have to be careful.
There is a balance for the West here where it gains more advantages than China gains advantage. Maybe that means it has to stop in a few years, maybe next year, or maybe in 10 years. Casual people like you and me can't know about that, the only people who know about this are probably the strategists in the US deep state who control this situation from that side.
In America's wishes, it's about advantage gained vs price paid. In reality, it's advantage bungled to China plus price paid anyway. There is nothing in this situation that is good for the US or the West. Dollar's falling, Europe is strained, China has more breathing room to develop and Russia is waking up.
Well, your first post made it sound like the US had everyone right where it wanted them. "Strategically achieved their purpose" is what you said. And now I ask if this is what the US wants and you say of course not. I don't understand your point.
Thats where Chinese and American strategists will square off. My analysis is that the US national interest is to drag this war for a few more years, have a ceasefire, massively arm Ukraine Israel-style and start again for round 2
That's their interest or that's their plan? That might be their plan but it's not in their interest at all. They cannot win against Russia right next to Russia; they can only make Europe poorer and Russia more determined to help China defeat American dominance. Their interest is to woo Russia but of course, that train has already left the station, and like most American trains, derailed and burst into flames.
