You should not mistake Chinese restraint for weakness, redditor.
Restraint becomes kind of a weakness when it's so beneficial for to be restrained. Then it becomes a handcuff that prevents you from taking action against provocation because you keep thinking, not yet, I need to hold on until I am stronger and my position is more favorable. China's biggest advantage is that it is so intelligent, restrained and thinks long term. But it is also its biggest weakness because everyone thinks they are too afraid to take costly actions.
If China was as unhinged as US for example, they would have banned all rare earth export to any country that bans Chip exports. That would have crippled Chip industry of US and Taiwan. It would have been such a huge action that whole world would have taken notice. It also would have deterred US to pursue more Chip sanctions.
What has China banned in response to all the Huawei bans in Europe and Australia? Did they ban Apple and German cars for example? For being a potential spy tool?
They have been extremely restrained because they cannot take these actions without huge costs to its own economy. and there is a fundamental difference between what US and the west wants and what China wants.
China's goal is to get richer and stronger, not to bring US down. But for US, they are already rich, they are already on top. They just want to bring China down. So, they can take actions that is costly for their economy, hoping that it will cost China more and maybe cause a collapse.
This is the fundamental difference between China and the USSR. China wants its own rise, USSR wanted to bring US down.
This is all very good and intelligent from China. But it is also a weakness in the Taiwan scenario. Because Taiwan and US can keep on Salami slicing all they want and China cannot take strong action without causing problems to their long term goal.
And the commotion with people running around to and from the ROC does nothing meaningful either. Between the two, military drills familiarizing with terrain and enemy tactics is far more useful. It's not that China has lost any deterrent against the West; China never had it. Before, it was seen as pointless to provoke a China that wasn't making the West uncomfortable. But now, things are very different. It's an extremely high-hanging branch for China, or anyone, to disallow a group of people from visiting another group of people unless said country had control over either group. If the Mainland took control of the ROC, that's game over. Rather, we are seeing these interactions between the ROC and Western nations not because China has lost any deterrent or anything, but it is because China has gained too much progress, in its national development, it's tech, it's economy, it's currency use and diplomacy, making the West fear for its future. Because it has no meaningful moves to counter China, it must reach for the lowest hanging fruit for spite, not utility, which is to uselessly visit and invite visits from the ROC officials. This is the temper tantrum; China's response is to make the best out of it and use it as an excuse to normalize more military activity around Taiwan Island.
There is a difference between what is called a success for DPP vs what is a success for China. The Taiwan independence battle is battle of recognition. Taiwan is already de-facto separate from the mainland. But what Taiwan independence crowd really hated was that the west didn't interact with Taiwan on a political level. They wanted recognition from US and the west as a country.
Now they are kind of getting it. Not overtly, but bit by bit. slowly. Now politicians and ministers from western countries are visiting Taiwan as if it is a country. These ministers and official meet Tsai as if She is a president of a country. That is the recognition they seek.
When Tsai gets to visit the US or talk to US leaders, that's a win for them. When Lithuania opens a "Taiwan Representative Office", that'a huge win for them. Cause what is the difference between a "Taiwan representative office" vs a "taiwan embassy"? Very little.
Slowly but surely Taiwan is moving towards de-facto recognition of Taiwan Independence. They will not declare independence but they dont need to if presidents and leaders from US and the west openly visits Taiwan, Taiwan gets to open these representative offices and gets to openly participate in sports as "Taiwan".
They want to become independent without declaring independence. And currently they are succeeding towards moving to that goal step by step.
But China's goal is much harder. They have to actually takeover Taiwan physically. That's a much harder goal than the simple recognition game. So, China hasn't made any progress in their goal while Taiwan has been making a lot of progress in their goal.
