U.S. carves path to Indo-Pacific framework, but will others follow?
LOS ANGLES -- In order for the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework to truly work as a buffer to China's influence in the region, Washington will have to show tangible benefits for joining because the participants have strong trade ties with Beijing.
Economic ministers from 14 nations agreed to enter formal negotiations on the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) at a two-day meeting that closed Friday. The negotiations will focus on the framework's four pillars: trade, supply chains, clean energy and anti-corruption efforts.
"We are committed to offering tangible and concrete benefits to the partner countries participating in IPEF," U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said at the event, indicating the desire for swift progress on the agreement.
The U.S. aim is to build an economic space that will allow like-minded countries to counter China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
But creating an economic space separate from China will not be easy as participating countries are highly dependent on trade with it. In a time of prolonged confrontation between the U.S. and China, each country is weighing how much distance it should create between the two competitors.
Australia has the highest level of economic dependence, with China accounting for 35% of its trade in 2020. New Zealand follows at 25% and South Korea at 24%.
The seven members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations that make up half the IPEF participants, including Vietnam and Indonesia, have about 10% to 20% of their trade with China. All of the other participants have more trade with China than with the U.S.
China holds a large share of trade of important resources and goods such as semiconductors, rare earths and minerals essential for the production of batteries. The U.S. aims to strengthen supply chains within the framework to weaken this dependence. Against this backdrop, challenges remain in maintaining unity among the participants despite the agreement to start negotiations.
Some remain wary of being be required to adopt strict rules on the environment, human rights, data distribution, and other issues that the Biden administration is pushing for. India, for instance, has declined to participate in the trade pillar. "We have to see what benefits member countries will derive," said Piyush Goyal, India's commerce and industry minister.
The IPEF is different from existing trade agreements in that it does not require tariffs to be cut or eliminated, making it less attractive because participants will not gain new access to the world's largest market -- the U.S.
Therefore, the U.S. is emphasizing other benefits. At an event connected to the meeting, Washington touted its commitment to helping women acquire information technology-related skills. The goal is to provide education and training to 7 million people over the next 10 years on artificial intelligence and robotics with the help from the likes of Google and Apple.
The U.S. and China continue to be locked in battle over the leadership of Asia's economy. China promotes infrastructure and other investments via its Belt and Road Initiative. After the U.S. withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) under the Trump administration, China applied for membership in the pact last year, a move that appeared to be aimed at expanding its influence.
The Biden administration is wary of China's moves and is increasing its involvement in Asia.
Because it is a staunch ally of Washington and has a close relationship with ASEAN, Japan will likely play an important role in keeping the U.S. involved in the region.
"It is significant that the U.S. has once again made clear its economic commitment to the Indo-Pacific region," Minster of Economy, Trade and Industry Yasutoshi Nishimura said after the meeting.
Non-paywall wall:
The Indo-Pacific economic framework (IPEF) is intended as the economic containment leg of China by the Biden administration (like I have said three - four times earlier in the past 3 months). The IPEF was launched op 23 May, 2022 by the Biden administration and after 3,5 months of initial negotiations between the US and participants they have launched the negotiations this week in Los Angeles.