I've read the whole article. The problem is not whether China is prepared to punish Taiwan for shooting their jets, or whether its justified. The problem is, is now a suitable time to be playing poker with war? I think the Chinese government is more sophisticated and cunning than this. Nevertheless, as
@siegecrossbow said. Global Times is kinda like the 'Jai-Hind' of the English-language Chinese media. They are very hawkish. More importantly, that article also says that its an 'opportunity' for the PLAAF to fly jets over Taiwan, not a necessity. Hence, we should take this sort of bravado story with a pinch of salt.
Please don’t forget that Chinese leaders don’t play poker. Can you name a single instance where modern China has bluffed?
China understands that words matter. If you don’t treat your own words with respect, how do you expect others to take what you say seriously?
China tend to not make bold pronouncements, but when it does, it backs up those words with hard power and the will to use it.
If China flies fighters over Taiwan, its full military will be on full combat alert, and if Taiwan opens fire at those PLAAF planes, its full on armed reunification. That’s not a bluff.
As for timing, well I have said for nearly a year now that covid presents China with a historic opportunity to advance its armed reunification timeline by maybe a decade.
While the US military isn’t as hobbled as it was during the peak of the pandemic, the American economy is still in deep trouble and the covid waves are still rising. With autumn and winter approaching, can the already strained American healthcare system handle the inevitable new waves of hospitalisations without any supplies from China?
China also has a brief window of opportunity where the US currently has zero credible deployed defences against its AShBMs or hypersonic gliders and a deeply weak leader in absence in Biden. If America chooses to fight China now over Taiwan, it will most likely loose and loose badly, and Biden is unlikely to press the big red button out of spite.
Fast forward a few years and Trump comes back for a second term and all bets are off in terms of possible nuclear escalation. By that time it is also possible that the US will at least have something dedicated to defending its ships against AShBMs and hypersonic gliders.
But given the stacked odds and the fact that to fight China over Taiwan and loose will end American global dominance and most likely make the Democrats unelectable for a generation, I think Biden will easily fold. Just like how he did over Afghanistan.
