Not really seeing the catch22 part of the equation... China is the only viable threat to US hegemony... so by "everywhere else" where exactly is that?INDOPACOM estimate of 2025 Chinese forces in the Western Pacific:
View attachment 73852
Obviously the US considers this a problem which is why they're arguing over Pacific Deterrence Initiative. The politicians want to increase amount of forces forward deployed inside 1st island chain but Office of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation and Office of Net Assessment over in DoD argue that PLA forces are so overwhelming now that in event of conflict US troops forward deployed in 1st Island Chain and even within 2nd Island Chain would become target practice for the PLA. So they are actually calling for pulling back of forward deployed troops back to the west of the international date line, then in times of war the troops can move forward as needed.
I think the "then" part is laughable, but you can see the actual military experts who run sims and calculate stuff are rational. It's the politicians that don't want to back down.
I can understand the politican's point of view. If US pulls back to west of international date line then there's high probably of Japan and South Korea jumping ship which will shake the entire global hegemony. But if you don't pull back then what? Concentrate all US forces around the globe into the Western Pacific? Then everywhere else on the globe the hegemony would be at risk. It's a catch-22
Other than China which other major nation poses a credible threat to US economy, preminence, hegemony? India 2020?? Its only China... and so they will asymettric focus on Tiawan as thats killing three birds with one stone...
1) Semiconductor chokehold as Chips become the new oil and the US controlled IC supply chain the new digital OPEC... after fort knox lost all the gold they cooked up coupling dollar to oil, now oil running out, they will reassociate dollar to computer chips
2) Nuclear blackmail of China by strategic ambiguity... just like DF26 can be nuke tipped or conventional, US can play same trick with missiles it installs in TW.. how will China know?
3) Prevent China navy from getting out of first island chain... if US controls TW then China will not be true blue water navy if it cannot get to pacific and then all thats left is US take over SCS islands and total economic blockade of China... This is probably how they will solve peak oil mitigation by artifical "demand destruction" via implosion of Chinese economy etc
Last edited: