I agree it won't be the 1930s, but it's not going to be pretty.
Plus the fundamental issue around affordable housing is that construction has been nowhere near the demand due to population growth.
Brent as an oil benchmark is becoming irrelevant as oil production declines. Plus what does having a benchmark actually add to the economy?
Also, the UK is not a large car market, as it's only 2.6million vehicles sold, which is roughly 3% of global sales. In comparison, China is at 25million, USA is at 17million, the rest of the EU is at 10million.
Japanese FDI in the UK will reduce as they need access to the EU market, which is now in doubt.
I would agree the Marine insurance industry will remain, but it doesn't actually support that many jobs
Housing problems. Yes. Welcome to the new world. You can rattle out a list of countries and cities around the world that have the same story. It has almost nothing to do with staying in or out of EU. If you insist it is, you'd have a hard time explaining what's going on in other parts of the world where the exact same thing is happening.
I wouldn't pooh pooh UK's crude oil production. If you compare time series of the crude oil production in Europe, UK is still right up there, even with the dipping down and flattening out.
There are not that many in the whole world whose crude has its own benchmark. Think of it as a whole ecosystem and supply chain that surround around that one number.
Same for the UK auto market. You are comparing its number with outlier points several standard deviation away from the mean of a meaningful relevant distribution. You should compare it with Germany or France at least. Again you would have a hard time explaining how could you describe UK market small.
Japanese are now laughing all their way to the bank for the investment contracts they signed before the Brexit. So don't cross out Japanese greed yet. It's still too early.
I can see the problem of self fulfilling prophecy going there in your sentiment.
UK won't see a technical recession anytime soon. It would be most likely a selective sector specific recession only. If London loses the passport, don't bet ECB to get up and running a comparable clearing mechanism just like one two and three. If clearing systems are that easy to replicate they have done it long time ago.