View attachment 169353
The next decade seems game over for the Sino-Japanese Relations. One thing the SeeSeePee (especially Xi himself) needs to realise from this election is that the majourity of Japanese are determined to confront China geopolitically in every step of the way. The logic is very simple. Since Japan committed numerous war crimes against China from 1895-1945, whilst Japan’s strategy as a maritime power adjacent to the Eurasia Continent has been to prevent the rise of a dominant land power, most Japanese understand that the underlying conflicts between the two countries are simply irreconcilable. China intends make Japan pay for history and Taiwan short of a war with the United States. On the other hand, losing Taiwan would make Japan more exposed to the PLAN, so Taiwan does matter to Tokyo in terms of sea lanes of communication security. This election actually demonstrates maturity among the Japanese population in knowing who their real enemies are. For them, they know any chance of Japan’s returning to greatness IDEALLY have to be the total defeat and evisceration of China as an adjacent continental power. At the end of the day, if you know your conflict with your enemy is so irreconcilable whilst what you have committed against them in the past were so horrendous (where acknowledging crimes and apologising would actually give the other side more reasons to demand paybacks), you might as well double down on a path in an attempt to weaken to keep them down. This appears to be the consensus among the Japanese people. If you have committed a brutal rape against a teenage girl and can never get away from this crime under the law, the rational choice would be to try to coerce the victim and her family to never have a chance to demand justice. If coercion doesn’t work, you kill the victim and her family. Reconciling with victim and apologise would only lead to your own downfall behind bars.
This election also shows the Japanese populace are likely to be more united behind their national cause than Chinese are over the PRC’s national rejuvenation goal. The fact that so many Chinese elites like business people and academics still aspire to Anglo liberalism and dream of making geopolitical concessions to the West in exchange for peace, trade, and stability should be an issue for Beijing to reflect upon.
It will also be interesting to see if this event, along with US arms sales to Taiwan and Zhang’s ousting, will have any effects of PLA’s budget.